Una partita razionale

Una partita razionale – A rational game

1. Colpo di stato (Coup of State)

When the 1st September of 1939 Nazi Germany declared war on Poland, starting the Second World War, the Italian Fascist government soon proclaimed its stance in the conflict as “Non belligerante” (Non-aggressive) which de facto was a diplomatic camouflage to state Italy for the moment remained outside of the conflict until favorable conditions will be shown to allow the country to participate.

Despite the bold declarations of Benito Mussolini, Duce and dictator of Italy, even he knew the conditions of the military forces of his country were rather poor at least, so with the status of non aggression he hopefully attempted to gain enough time to prepare better the troops at his disposal to enter the conflict and giving it a steering blow; he was convinced of this on the speculation the conflict between Germany from one side and France and Britain from another will soon end in a new war of position, like the First World War.

Still, it was clear Mussolini was progressively intentioned to align Italy to battle on the side of Germany, strong of the past agreements with Hitler which leaded on the stipulation of the so called “Patto d’acciaio” (Steel Pact) which the laying foundation was the enactment of the Anti-Jew racial laws in Italy: decision this one which however left confused many Italians and murmurs in the Vatican as in the Quirinal as well, not counting a relevant part of the ruling establishment.

Naturally, the ones which were not so happy of the racial laws in the Fascist establishment were also the ones which were more on anti-German positions: which included two top gerarchs as Galeazzo Ciano, Foreign affairs minister and son-in-law of Mussolini, and Italo Balbo, governor of the colonial province of Libya. But Ciano was rather mild to oppose the will of his father in law and Balbo, albeit the position he covered was prestigious in itself, in truth was in sort of disgrace as Mussolini sent him in Libya for jealousy. Still, the latter conserved his position in the Great Council of Fascism. Another relevant staunch antagonist of the Ital-German alliance was Dino Grandi, predecessor of Ciano in the foreign affairs and current ambassador in London; position which however was decided by Mussolini still for reason of jealousy, and in the same late 1939 decided to conclude appointing him President of the Chamber of the Corporations the 30th of November, because the Duce feared Grandi could attempt to promote lateral agreements with the British without his consent. It proved however to be a great mistake, because it allowed Grandi to reacquire a seat into the Great Council due of his position, hence favoring the following chain of events.

Mussolini in fact had intention to call a session of the Council for the 7th December, in part to discuss how to prepare the country in front of the conflict, but also to confirm a consistent reshuffling of the Fascist establishment he was intentioned to promote in order to reaffirm his power and consolidate his warmongering position. The most relevant change was the removal of Achille Starace, chairman of the Partito Nazionale Fascista (PNF) with Ettore Muti, highly decorated war hero, through the meddling of Ciano, for various reasons, from his acts of “Fascistizzazione” of the society on certain regards which ended to annoy the population to the verge of ridiculousness, to the intention to reassure part of the public opinion alarmed by certain explicit declarations in favor of Germany; but from certain voices of corridors and certain transcriptions from Ciano’s diaries, common font for the modern historians to define what’s boiling on in the Italian halls of the power at the time, Mussolini decided to remove him when Starace lied to him over a staunch rally of the Italians over the running conflict.

The Duce wasn’t a fool and realized the period of apex in his popularity following the conquest of Etiophia was wearing off, and that the Italians weren’t interested to be involved into a war of great magnitude; which made him become more bitter and frustrated, as believing remaining neutral will be detrimental for Italy as its eventual claims will fall on deaf ears even to presenting itself as a moderator (as it happened for Munich, which increased the international stance of Italy for its diplomatic role despite later Hitler few months later unilaterally disregarded those agreements with the occupation of Czechoslovakia) but above all will butterfly his dreams of an “Italian Empire”.

Not that he was unreasonable like Hitler, in the terms to not completely exclude an agreement with France and Britain in case Germany will pending on the losing side in the end; but Mussolini was still wary towards the Entente because of the issues of the sanctions proclaimed at the time of the war of Ethiopia, and after all his strategic objectives for an Italian expansion were more detrimental for them rather than Germany. Towards France, the major reason of tension were Yugoslavia, former allied of Paris which however remained neutral in the war, and the claims over Tunisia and Dijibuti (excluding Nice, Savoy and Corsica which despite officiously reclaimed from Rome, the Duce knew it will be impossible to reclaim those territories unless of a war); towards Britain, Greece (into the sphere of London), Malta, their chunk of Somalia and Yemen were issues which generated incomprehension between the two countries.

Ciano tried to convince Mussolini of the possibility to obtain satisfaction behind diplomatic work at pact to keep Italy out of the war, but the Duce wasn’t convinced. To the growing sense of anxiety and uncertainty among certain part of the establishment there was the fear Mussolini in the end could decide to enter by only his own decision into the conflict, bypassing the eventual decision of the Great Council – and voices were running over the fact the dictator after the 7th of December will freeze indefinitely the assembly to be the only one to decide of the future of Italy; insinuations which brought the anti-German and anti-war faction to move quickly in a so short period of time.

It was Grandi, from the 3rd of December, to start everything. His role as president of the Chamber of Corporation was not influential or relevant in the national affairs, Mussolini hoped so to keep him contained, but the former was intentioned to prevent at all cost to bring Italy into a conflict which could prove to be disastrous for the entire nation. At the same time, Grandi from one side developed positions more moderate into the Fascist movement, while he became more bitter towards Mussolini for the way he was treated in the past, and honestly wished to see him removed from his position.

Grandi could count over the active support of the Savoia dynasty (he had their trust and the possibility to talk freely without Mussolini’s meddling, being prized of the “Collare dell’Annunziata” which made him a honorary parent of the King), apprehensive over the direction Mussolini was leading the country: Vittorio Emanuele III was conflicted over a possible peaceful removal of Mussolini, he feared the consequences should Grandi will fail, but he reluctantly agree under the pressures of his son Umberto and his daughter-in-law Maria Josè, who was worried over the possibility Hitler to invade France could readopt a revised version of the Schiefflen plan so attacking Belgium as in the past war; which will have put Italy in a more difficult position by keeping a more active stance towards Germany. As for Umberto, generally his support was explained by the historians with the personal motivation he wanted a reign which felt close enough to inherit from his father due to his advanced age without being forced to become king under the shadow of Mussolini, and Grandi offered him a golden occasion to reinstate a part of the royal authority in relation with the Fascist organization.

Through the support of the Savoia, Grandi made action of pressures towards Ciano, conflicted as well, but in the end agreed to “stab in the back” his father-in-law when Balbo, arrived in Rome for the imminent session of the council, agreed immediately to join the plot ( as Grandi, had reason of bitterness towards Mussolini), while Umberto di Savoia made further pressures recalling him to his duties towards the crown as a noble. As the four made private arrangements, it was agreed in the end Balbo will become the next president of the council of ministers, so the new head of government, while Grandi and Ciano will retain their current roles. Ciano naturally had ambitions to succeed to Mussolini, but he feared the possible consequences should the fire will backfire – and should things went bad, at least he hoped to count over the support of his wife Edda, Mussolini’s older daughter and the most influential sibling to him, to appease the possible wrath of his father-in-law. Still, he didn’t told her nothing about the plot. At the same time, if the plot succeed but Balbo failed to be adapt to the role in the time, he could always try to take his place.

At the same time, Grandi was unlikely to be proposed as successor, being the one behind the plot, while it was refused Umberto’s attempt to propose a more “neutral” candidate like a high ranked army officer, such as Pietro Badoglio, but the plotting gerarchs refused, because they wanted to avoid the possible risk of a military dictatorship or an excessive shifting of power in favor of the Crown, as after all their intention was to remove Mussolini, not the Fascist structure.

Discussions are still open today if the Vatican was conscious of that attempt. As far as it is known, it seems Pius XII was informed through his channels in the Quirinale, and that approved any solution which could have prevented a conflict for Italy; but the meddling of the Holy See seemed to be remain minimal, limited to the concession of certain places (monasteries, oratories) to better favor the meeting of the plotters.

The idea of the plotters was to put Mussolini in minority with a motion voted within the Great Council, forcing him to dismiss from his position. While the OVRA (the Fascist secret police) didn’t have reason to investigate about suspicious movements of members of the inner circle of the Duce, Mussolini himself wasn’t aware of those Roman meetings, or if certain voices came to him, he didn’t give them proper attention. Mussolini made the Great Council a constitutional organ of the Kingdom in relation of his intention to build a “one party ruled” country, but incidentally gave it faculty to overthrow his decision at any moment, as being the decisional body of the Fascist machine (in certain way being a sort of Fascist Politburo); but, naturally he never considered the idea the gerarchs arriving to cover their position because of him, could ever betray him one day.

The session of the Great Council of the 7th December 1939 was frantic at least. As Mussolini expressed his intentions to reduce the window of expectation for an Italian intervention in the war of a least a year ( as he initially proposed 1943 to Hitler, now he was going to put the deadline for 1942 – and probably was intentioned to further lower gradually the period of neutrality), intervened quite vehemently Balbo (notoriously known for being the less servant of the gerarchs towards Mussolini and quite frank to express his opinion) stating how everyone in the council knew the poor conditions of the Italian army and that the country wasn’t unable to hold a war against France and Britain in the Mediterranean or in Africa, talking from the height of his experience as commander of the colonial forces in Libya (stated around 200,000 against the 60,000 British stationed in Egypt ar the time, but scarcely equipped to fight against their potential adversary) and as a former minister of the air forces (reclaiming that the Italian technological advantage in that edge during the twenties was eaten away while he reclaimed more efforts for the development of the airdrop compartment and the realization of air carriers, finding unreasonable the principle of “Italy as natural Mediterranean air carrier”). Soon a quite heated debate started between Pro-Germans and Anti-Germans, to the point were thrown in discussion the contested racial laws; but when Mussolini was intentioned to restore order (he allowed the debate and appreciated the growing disorder in order to present himself as the final moderator and deus-ex-machina to restore calm then imposing his decisions) then Grandi proposed a motion requesting that nobody, not even the head of government, could assume the command of the Italian armed forces in name of the King without previous consensus of the same ruler, and still to give the King the last war in matter of declaration of war to another country. In that way, he attempted to bar the Royal prerogatives over those matters to the same Mussolini; Grandi didn’t made negative opinions over Mussolini, but he simply stated it was better to keep count of the matured experience of the King in matter, and to prevent an imbalance of the current status quo in the country.

Mussolini was caught off guard, and attempted to stall the vote to gain time and refreshing his mind to understand what’s really going on; but soon he started to lose control over the Council were gerarchs undeniably loyal to him or to be seen as "radical" in their views like Roberto Farinacci, Giuseppe Bottai and Starace (appointed to the Milizia Volontaria per la Sicurezza Nazionale, or MVSN, more known as “blackshirts” for their uniform and being the Fascist party militia, albeit integrated into the Italian armed forces), accusing Grandi of treason and “to being a friend of the Jew cabal”; then confusion was unavoidable and the meeting went into early night with accusations and insults from both sides: but the plotters managed during the moments of pause to drag on their side uncertain members of the Council, such as Ettore Muti and Emilio Bono, one of the “quadriumviri” of the “March on Rome”, impressed somewhat by the violence of the pro-Germans and the failure of Mussolini to restore order. Near to midnight, in the end the motion was finally put in vote, along with a side amendment which confirmed the non aggressive stance of Italy, and passed with strict measure, however enough to state since the institution and constitutional integration of the assembly, that Mussolini was put in minority inside the Fascist movment. Algid the Duce replied that it “was provoked the fall of the current government”, and left Palazzo Venezia to decide what to do next.

Honestly, the Duce believed it was a political internal move to contest his decisions in foreign policy and pushing him to remain more "calm" to his alignment towards Hitler, and that in the end the ones who voted to put him in minority will never attempt to replace him, so he decided to ask a meeting with the King to ask him to reconfirm his role as head of government so reaffirming his authority. He was encouraged to do so considering it wasn’t given yet public announcement of the deliberations of the Great Council, he was sure eventual and inopportune leaks will be properly censured, so to allow himself to being fully reinstated in his prerogatives with the royal recognition as nothing happened.

Vittorio Emanuele III accepted to encounter him in the morning of the 9th December, he was correct with Mussolini receiving his resignations, but he left him speechless when he announced he refused to confirm again his mandate. Mussolini left the Royal rooms bitterly, but he failed to leave the Quirinale as a free man, as a group of carabineers approached him inviting to follow them for his own security from the moment he didn’t cover any official role in the government.

De facto, Benito Mussolini, decayed dictator of Italy, was put under house arrest, and escorted to his private residence in Villa Torlonia.

In the late evening of that day, the main journals of the peninsula came out (or properly informed to say so) with an extraordinary issue declaring that Mussolini accepted to dismiss "voluntarily" from his role as head of government (but retaining still the title of Duce among with the other honorific ones) after receiving a negative motion of confidence, and consequently retiring into private life, giving to the “new generation of Fascists” the duty to lead Italy in so dire times. Naturally it was given emphasis on the fact Mussolini was like a father which will continue to give his precious advices to the entire country when required albeit now he needed to rest properly to recover from seventeen years of government.

Due to Mussolini’s resignation, Vittorio Emanuele declared Italo Balbo, current governor of Libya, to become the new president of the council of ministers of the Kingdom of Italy. In a side article, it was reported the first enacted decrees by Balbo, about the replacement of Starace from head of the MVSN, now leaded by De Bono, while Muti for the moment was confirmed as chairman of the PNF...
 
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Ok, the King making an intelligent decision and the Grand Council growing a pair? Maybe this TL is more apt to ASB:D:D.
Joke aside, with a single and little move...WWII will be now unrecognizable, oh well sucks being Adolf.
 
I like this start: subscribed!

You spared Italy the shame of being allied to Germany, however you probably ensured the continued rule of the Savoia dinasty and probably a long lived fascism-light regime, so I don't know if theoverall sum of the changes will be positive or negative.

Also Germany could be tempted to invede Italy... in any case you just changed completely ww2, as lukedalton said.
 
I like this start: subscribed!

You spared Italy the shame of being allied to Germany, however you probably ensured the continued rule of the Savoia dinasty and probably a long lived fascism-light regime, so I don't know if theoverall sum of the changes will be positive or negative.

But essentially and because of the difficulty of updating the Civil and Penal Code and the non-épuration of the juridical corps, wasn't the law in Italy until the late 1960s still essentially fascist-lite? I'm not talking politics but in matters of civic order and such.

Anyhow, very interesting, subscribed. Always nice to see a TL about WWII that doesn't focus on the Anglo-Americans.
 
I like this start: subscribed!

You spared Italy the shame of being allied to Germany, however you probably ensured the continued rule of the Savoia dinasty and probably a long lived fascism-light regime, so I don't know if theoverall sum of the changes will be positive or negative.

Also Germany could be tempted to invede Italy... in any case you just changed completely ww2, as lukedalton said.

Well if Italy skip the second great massacre we had no 440000 deaths, no need to reconstruct basically all the country, no pillage by the nazi, no unexploded device that even now were found in all the country, etc. etc.
So i'm very tempted on say that's a large positive; for the consequence of a longer fascist regime (even a light version without Benny ), well till the 60's we had basically lived in a nation with a mix of democratic institution living within fascist built infrastructure (expecially in the legal and journalism world, not counting that corporatism it's very alive today.)
 
Ok, the King making an intelligent decision and the Grand Council growing a pair? Maybe this TL is more apt to ASB:D:D.
Joke aside, with a single and little move...WWII will be now unrecognizable, oh well sucks being Adolf.

Well indeed TTL the anti-German opposition managed to be enough swift and throw out the attributes to Mussolini. Still, not necessarily TTL WWII will be less nasty; after all, a neutral Italy is an less handicap for Germany...

I like this start: subscribed!

You spared Italy the shame of being allied to Germany, however you probably ensured the continued rule of the Savoia dinasty and probably a long lived fascism-light regime, so I don't know if theoverall sum of the changes will be positive or negative.

Also Germany could be tempted to invede Italy... in any case you just changed completely ww2, as lukedalton said.

I have however to remind Italy is still technically allied with Germany... the Pact of Steel was a defensive and an offensive alliance, and if Italy remained outside the first months of war was because Mussolini was pissed to not being informed by Hitler and was caught in foul by the Molotov-Ribbentrop agreement, and requested time to prepare Italy and Hitler caved in. I don't want to play charades as I guess it will clear from the prelude TTL Italy will not end with Germany, yet I can't confirm not deny Italy will pass unscathered the conflict.

But essentially and because of the difficulty of updating the Civil and Penal Code and the non-épuration of the juridical corps, wasn't the law in Italy until the late 1960s still essentially fascist-lite? I'm not talking politics but in matters of civic order and such.

Anyhow, very interesting, subscribed. Always nice to see a TL about WWII that doesn't focus on the Anglo-Americans.

Well if Italy skip the second great massacre we had no 440000 deaths, no need to reconstruct basically all the country, no pillage by the nazi, no unexploded device that even now were found in all the country, etc. etc.
So i'm very tempted on say that's a large positive; for the consequence of a longer fascist regime (even a light version without Benny ), well till the 60's we had basically lived in a nation with a mix of democratic institution living within fascist built infrastructure (expecially in the legal and journalism world, not counting that corporatism it's very alive today.)

Any alternate 20th century Italy which will not end on the side with Nazi Germany could be considered a wank, whatever will remain neutral, siding with the Allies at the end, or ending anyway invaded the side but being allied still with the right side.

Naturally, TTL normalization (which not necessarily had to be understood as democratization) if happening will be slow as OTL, maybe even more. Franco arrived till 1975 after all... surely, all depends a lot over the issue of corporativism and the economical issues of Italy, I have some ideas but I had to work better over it, besides the financial part are not my forte.
 
Well indeed TTL the anti-German opposition managed to be enough swift and throw out the attributes to Mussolini. Still, not necessarily TTL WWII will be less nasty; after all, a neutral Italy is an less handicap for Germany...

Well, an Italy neutral in WWII is a scenario famous enough here to have various 'school' about it.
IMHO is a mix: sure there is no Norht African and Balkan front (and relative guerrillas) and without the italian to use as 'sparring patner' both British and US troops will be a lot more green in any confrontation with the Nazi. On the other side the British have a lot less problem as there is no fight on the Mediterrean and Africa, plus without the menace of Regia Mariana join the German Navy for the invasion:rolleyes: of Great Britain there will be less panic towards secure the French fleet so (maybe) no Dakar and Mars-el-Kebir...and we have more smooth relationships with Free France and maybe more colonies join De Gaulle; and more importantly Uncle Joe will feel more diffult to ignore all the the proof that Adolf want to make a visit (not a given knowing the man, but still).
And i not even consider the debate about the 'real' reason about the Barbarossa set date and about Yugoslavia coup...in any case the real loser of this game is Japan as now the Commonwealth garrison are much more strong than OTL.



I have however to remind Italy is still technically allied with Germany... the Pact of Steel was a defensive and an offensive alliance, and if Italy remained outside the first months of war was because Mussolini was pissed to not being informed by Hitler and was caught in foul by the Molotov-Ribbentrop agreement, and requested time to prepare Italy and Hitler caved in. I don't want to play charades as I guess it will clear from the prelude TTL Italy will not end with Germany, yet I can't confirm not deny Italy will pass unscathered the conflict.

Oh well if the Allies had Stalin as member in OTL they can accept fascist Italy...we were teddy bear compared to them (unless you are ethiopian or libian naturally). It will be funny see the american wartime cartoon with Italy as on the good guy.



Naturally, TTL normalization (which not necessarily had to be understood as democratization) if happening will be slow as OTL, maybe even more. Franco arrived till 1975 after all... surely, all depends a lot over the issue of corporativism and the economical issues of Italy, I have some ideas but I had to work better over it, besides the financial part are not my forte.

We had a couple of thread recently about this, in sum we can say that Ethiopia will be probably our Angola and Libya can be kept but will be a sore point between we and the arabs and we will face the libian version of the OLP or more probably a low level terrorist conflict that will last decades like in Ireland.
 
2. Colpo assorbito (Absorbed shock)

The plotters weren’t intentioned to revolution the current dynamics of power in the Fascist machine; the only notable change was the removal of Starace from the control of the MVSN fearing he could use the blackshirts to create troubles into the country, like a “second march on Rome”. On his place was appointed the older and more reassuring De Bono, which his prestige as Quadrumviro should be enough to ensure loyalty within the militia.

But, aside Starace, the other gerarchs which voted against the Grandi motion or more radical Fascists such as Farinacci or Bottai remained to their place. Even if victorious, the anti-German, moderate faction didn’t want a rupture into the Fascist establishment, and promises of clemency were granted always if they agreed to stick with the guidelines of Balbo and his associates.

Granted, obviously the plotters recognized they couldn’t wash away in a single blow the agreement with Hitler and the related consequence (the racial laws), because Italy was still largely dependent upon economical matters, plus a sudden rupture will surely discredit the imagine of Italy as a “reliable” country towards other nations with a similar political alignment where had interests (Hungary, Bulgaria, Portugal and above all Spain), fearing eventually to throw them to the embrace of Germany. The most logical consequence so was a slow and gradual separation from Berlin favoured by the prolonged neutrality, and to stimulate a normalization with France and Britain, still trying to expand the Italian interests of course.

In the late evening of the 8th December, Balbo released a radio address to the nation (despite all his confidence, he didn't attempt to make a public gathering like Mussolini, maybe appearing in the balcony of Palazzo Venezia, in part because it was a busy day and in part it was too late to suddenly gather enough Romans in the place) reassuring the Italian population with words of circumstance such as “the prosecution of the Fascist revolution”,” the enduring faith over the Duce (confirming also nobody will take said title from Mussolini)”, but also over “the required necessity to keep the nation not involved in the European struggle to build peacefully the Empire”, while “the previous agreements will be respected”. So, the message was in substance the prosecution of the Fascist regime, total respect towards Mussolini even if retired (which could have mean he will continue to rule Italy from behind the scenes), confirmation of the Pact of Steel but also of the Italian neutrality.

The night passed enough smoothly. It was reported later to Muti across Italy in the various “Case del Fascio” happened various meetings between local members of the party to discuss of the recent events, where speculations were already running, but substantially arrived also confirmations of loyalty to the new asset of power in Rome.

But the new Italian establishment had also to know how the main actors in the European conflict will stand towards them, so contacts to organize bilateral meetings in private form were immediately organized.

After a first round with the foreign ambassadors in Rome, Ciano started a swift diplomatic tour in Western Europe, officially to convince everyone of the stability and the reliance of the new government. He hoped to bring his wife with him, especially in the imminent encounter with the German Fuhrer, but Edda as for the rest of the Mussolini family was angry with him for betraying her father, so she remained in Rome, spending most of her time in Villa Torlonia to cheer up the Duce, which reports of the time described as unconsolable from the forced isolation.

The 14th of December, Ciano was in Berlin to meet a rather upset Hitler, convinced of the fact Mussolini was deposed by force and making a long rant against the Italian unreliability; it didn’t help the fact at the time was extremely suspicious of everyone as one month before he escaped unharmed a killing attempt on his person. Still, after allowing him to conclude his monologue, Ciano reassured Hitler that Italy wasn’t intentioned to betray the Pact of Still, but it needed still time to be ready, confirming the initial suggested date of 1943; as for Mussolini, he mixed truth and lies saying that the Great Council voted against his proposals preferring to keep the established delay for Italy’s entrance in the war rather than reduce it, but never asked him to resign, and that in the meeting with the King he was the one who decided to make a step down voluntarily, adducing reasons of health; while not covering further public position, to guarantee his security for the moment he decided to stay retired; and eventually could be even readmitted into his functions in a late time. To further convince Hitler, he gave him a letter signed by Balbo where the new president of the council of minister confirmed the Italian alliance with Germany. Even if not convinced fully, Hitler was enough appeased, so in the end caved in over the current Italian situation and accepting its enduring neutrality; still, he pretended count of the result of the other meetings Ciano was destined to face (as one of the unofficial points of the Pact requested mutual exchange of information). Naturally, the Italian diplomats sent faked reports to the embassy in Berlin.

The 16th of December, Ciano reached Paris through Switzerland to meet the Premier Daladier. He told him bluntly Italy was intentioned to stay neutral in the conflict, but neither could abruptly break all the relations with Germany to side with the Entente, adducing reasons of international credibility, the fact the Germans were wary of any Italian move, and certainly to make such a step like that he requested not concessions but at least reassurances; also for this, he told him the Italian troops on the Alpine border and in Libya deployed since the start of the hostilities will not be retired to not create suspicions in Berlin. Daladier then asked Ciano if Balbo or who was now behind him was intentioned to confirm the bold claims of Mussolini over French territories. Ciano took a deep breath, as with Balbo, Grandi and the King over that situation that officiously the current claim will stand at the moment, but in the next months the requests over Corsica, Nice, and Savoy will be removed without excessive outcries and in soft tone, so effectively renouncing over them, while the ones over Tunisia and Dijibuti will stand, expressing the will from Italian to find a diplomatic solution, eventually waiting for the end of the war, but not forcing the hand due to the conflict. Another issue put on the table was Yugoslavia, as Ciano confirmed the Italian intentions to reclaim Dalmatia and Split at least in final fulfilment of the Pact of London of 1915 the Americans disregarded at Versailles in 1919, leaving on the vague the question of the Croatian movement for independence which Rome foraged, and the Savoia dynastical claims over Montenegro, eventually prospecting a “limited war” between Italy and Yugoslavia over those territories in case of enduring refusal of the government in Belgrade to discuss a diplomatic proposal, where Rome will not ask the German intervention so not linking the conflict with the one in course and Paris will close a eye over it, but the French Premier, not intentioned to betray his Adriatic ally, opposed a staunch refusal the military option despite not refusing the diplomatic negotiation in principle. In substance, Daladier wasn’t fully convinced of the proposals of Ciano, certainly wasn’t intentioned to give even an inch of French controlled soil, it seemed from certain voices of corridor he was more oriented to satisfy as possible the Italians over the Yugoslavian claims, but he convened if Italy will be sincere over the renounce of the border metropolitan border and its enduring neutrality, eventually in the end he could have been retaken more seriously the discussion. In substance the Parisian meeting ended in nothing of definitive, but at least allowed both sides to gain time and lower their mutual hostility. Daladier and Ciano agreed to meet again after six months to make the point of the situation, but the fatal events in June of 1940 never made so that meeting happened.

During his permanence in Paris, members of the Italian Socialist Party (PSI) in exile in France attempted to establish a contact with him, but Ciano refused adamantly.

The 18th of December, it was the time of London. Ciano met Chamberlain and basically told him the same things replied to Daladier: Italy will confirm its neutrality, it was necessary for Rome to confirm the preferential relation with Nazi Germany, but offered willingness to gradually abandon Hitler in exchange of reassurances, above all of economical nature. As said before, the Italian economy at the moment depended quite a lot from the German one, especially in terms of raw materials, coal above all, due to the loss of commercial exchanges between Italy and Britain and France since the time of the Abyssinian war and never recovered. Ciano above all asked no restriction for Italian trade, even if in that way his country will be able to commerce with both sides. Chamberlain wasn’t elated, as there was the possibility British goods bought by Italian traders will then be sold in Germany to support their war economy, but he didn’t wanted to put Rome on the condition to align definitely towards Hitler (as his appeasement policy obviously failed, he couldn’t allow to make Italy another enemy on the moment the same Italians offered some support – on their terms, naturally). Besides the meeting with Chamberlain was surely more constructive than the ones with Hitler or Daladier, as Ciano expressed the Italian intention to not pursue an aggressive stance towards Greece (as Yugoslavia was perceived as the major obstacle to the expansion of the Italian influence in the Balkans), and to limit its claims against the British Empire over Malta, Somaliland and some minor rectifications of border around the AOI, while asking more freedom of movement in economical terms in Egypt; in truth Ciano was originally intentioned to discuss a solution over Yemen, country which perceived the vicinity of the AOI as a menace for its security while keeping open a contentious over certain islands in the Red Sea, in an area where Yemenite and Italian fishing boats entered usual in contrast; despite the stipulation of a non aggression pact, tensions between the Italian colony and the Arabian country persisted. Still, respect to the French meeting, the Italian foreign minister obtained better results; anyway as for Daladier Ciano agreed to meet Chamberlain six months later, but even in that case that meeting never happened.

The 20th, Ciano planed in Madrid, to meet Franco. With him he confirmed the intention for Italy to stay loyal with the agreements with Germany (he couldn’t say otherwise, fearing that otherwise the Caudillo could sold leaked revelations to Hitler), but also Italy will confirm its neutrality “indefinitely”. With Franco however he discussed of the possibility of a more strict Ital-Spanish cooperation on various grounds, taking advantage of the common neutral stance. In fact, despite Balbo and other gerarchs were hostile to the intervention into the Spanish civil war, which proved the unreliability of the Italian strength, and caused a further strain into the national economy, however Mussolini proved to been right and it wasn’t unwise to not take opportunity of the current situation: Spain was after all a nation in complete reconstruction, and the new Italian government wasn’t disinterested to help the Iberian country to recover if there were opportunities to take.

At the same time, Franco was aware at the moment the Italian market was the only one easily accessible for Spain in Europe, even if he was somewhat worried about how Mussolini was sacked from his position. The Caudillo was somewhat aware of the intervention of the King of Italy in the recent internal crisis, so inducing into him the doubt of the necessity to restore the monarchy in Spain even if all the popular odds in the country were in favour of that solution, because what happened in Rome could easily happened to him one day with a restored King around; he didn’t trust enough the sons of Alphonse XIII, considering also they took refuge in Rome, he was diffident towards the Carlists despite they supported him during the civil war, and certainly wasn’t intentioned to offer the crown to the descendants of Amedeo of Savoia-Aosta, after the bad precedent. Plus, in all and three the options, Franco saw a possible Italian influence ( as the Carlists supported the House of Borbone-Parma which living heirs, even living at the moment in France, were still Italian and had connections in Italy), and certainly didn’t want Rome to say the last word on the entire matter. Ciano anyway gave him reassurance the Italian government wasn’t intentioned to pressure him over the restoration, respecting in any case whatever decision the Spanish will take; besides, unknown to the same Franco, the same Italians were uncertain if interested or less to support or not a certain candidate rather than another or stay out from the entire issue, considering how the experience of Amedeo of Savoia-Aosta was awful at least.

Surely, Vittorio Emanuele was intrigued over the possibility to restore a Savoia-Aosta in Madrid, thinking to propose the nephew of that unfortunate ruler, who was named after him and was the current governor of the Africa Orientale Italiana; above all was Umberto di Savoia to push for that possibility or to put him on another throne, for reasons of jealousy. Umberto was the future King of Italy after all, but Amedeo was more popular than him in the public opinion, and the friendship he had with his wife Maria Josè left him quite bitter on his regards. However, Franco stated firmly to never approve that candidature.

The 24th of December, Ciano finally returned in Rome to report his impressions. There was general diffidence, but in the end even Hitler recognized the new status quo in Italy. They were legitimated in the eyes of the international opinion, as around the 27th arrived a telegram from America where Roosevelt expressed “trust” over Balbo (rather popular in that country since his past Atlantic air crossing), while even the USSR, involved in the Winter War towards Finland, expressed “appreciation” over the shift of power (despite Stalin like Hitler was worried over the dynamics of the resignation of Mussolini, and the poor result of the Soviet troops in Karelia made him further bitter to the point voices of a new wave of purges started to run into the Kremlin).

During Ciano's tour, Balbo finally started to make his first public apparitions, spreaded around Italy through the cinejournals of the "Istituto Luce" (it was recorded the most high presence of peoples in the movie theatres for 1939, as the Italians were greedy to understand better was going on), but still remaining around Rome. He was intentioned to start a series of visits through Italy for the next year, so allowing the population the possibility to well digest the disappearance of Mussolini. One of his appearances included a visit in the construction site of the Universal Exposition (the famous EUR quarter), which was confirmed to be concluded and hosted for 1942, stating that for that year "Europe will surely be in peace again".

Still, while half of Europe was engulfed in the spirals of war, Italy was going to end 1939 in peace and stability, hoping that 1940 will be a peaceful year as well…

… And it will be.
 
But essentially and because of the difficulty of updating the Civil and Penal Code and the non-épuration of the juridical corps, wasn't the law in Italy until the late 1960s still essentially fascist-lite? I'm not talking politics but in matters of civic order and such.

Quite a stretch as remark, given that one of the most socially progressive Constitutions at the time, with all the democratic guarantees about freedoms you may need in the late 40s-early 50s, was meanwhile been enforced; obviously there were still remnants of the old fashioned paternal management, but they were more linked to the tradition of the Kingdom than specific debris of Fascism.

BTW, I'm very interested and I subscribed your TL, Ryu. :)
 
3. Pianificazione (Planification)

At the start of 1940, the Balbo government needed to establish certain guidelines which in the ministerial meeting of the 7th January, the real first one since the sack of Mussolini, were so composed:

A) Economic policy: Cut the debts and the expenses following the Italian expansionistic policy of the last five years, while searching and acquiring new markets so diversifying the current orientation pointed towards a worrying subjection towards Germany; improve the national industry and the national infrastructure; reduce the gap between the richer Northern regions and the poorer Southern ones; bring at conclusion the construction site of the Universal Exposition.

B) Social policy: Prosecution of the “Fascistizzatione” of the Italian society, focus over the development of the Italian Corporativist system, definitive stance over the racial laws.

C) Military policy: Progressive rearm and above all modernization of the Italian Armed Forces in all fields (land, navy and air); promotion of the scientific research; constant observation of the European conflict to learn

D) Oversea territories policy: consolidation and definitive stabilization of the AOI; promotion of the Italian emigration in Libya and AOI; development of the country of Albania and study ways to ensure loyalty within the locals.

E) Foreign policy: confirmation of the neutrality of Italy until the other four policies discussed before will be well implemented; equidistance from both Germany and the Entente; support of a “realpolitik” stance, as taking opportunities with the less risk possible, so without ending in a war with the Entente or Germany.

The radical Fascist wing, aside with the pro-German supporters, wasn’t obviously thrilled of those decisions, especially when Balbo in name of the “moderates” declared the intention to abolish the racial laws and the limitations over the Jew population in Italy and the colonies. However, as the report made by Ciano showed how the Fuhrer was quite volatile at least in his view of the Italians, the abolition will be gradual and during the year, to arrive without particular scenes to the complete removal for the start of 1941.

To concede something to the radicals, still Balbo and his associates conceded them and their affiliates freedom of propaganda over racial issues, allowing so from one side to keep alive in Italy for the future a latent and potentially violent anti-Semitism, and from another to let endure the pretension of a certain supremacy of the Italians towards certain peoples, above all over the African natives, or the prosecution of certain discussing publications like “Difesa della Razza”, which had some success in the AOI, despite the work of the Duke of Savoia-Aosta in favour of the cooperation between colonists and natives.

The meeting was the occasion to reshuffle certain positions. As Muti showed difficulties to rule properly the PNF, being more a military and a man of action, he was moved to the MVSN, as De Bono declared the intention to retreat to private life, with the duty to make of the militia an effective branch of the Italian armed forces; so, to be new chairman of the PNF was called instead Luigi Federzoni, founder of the Italian Nationalist Party which later merged with the Fascist one in the early twenties becoming minister of the interior, only to be removed by Mussolini for his decisions to gather for himself more power. Federzoni besides moderated his positions as well in the past years, so he was considered enough safe to gave him that charge.

Balbo appointed to govern Libya the general Rodolfo Graziani, hero of the Abyssinian war and past pacifier of the same Libyan resistance, so expert of that territory; but were made insinuations over the fact in that way the president of the council of ministers wanted to neutralize a potential threat, being Graziani for an intervention in the European conflict or at least for a more aggressive foreign policy. Balbo gave him authority to control the troops stationed in Libya and reorganize them, but at the same time he was conveniently warned to not take private initiatives…

Balbo kept for himself the Home Affairs, necessary for the control of the OVRA, but delegated for himself the ministry of air force, as intentioned to follow personally the development of that branch of the armed forces. He had in effect certain innovations to introduce on that field, but he needed to talk with a certain person to realize those objectives. In the meanwhile, he started immediately to revise the policy of the “natural Mediterranean carrier” proposing to Supermarina (the Italian navy High command) to discuss the possibility to give the Regia Marina an air carrier at least. Italy that the time had the fifth most extensive fleet in the world, but various ships had flaws in comparison to their other competitors, plus the mindset of the Italian admirals was rather obsolete for the time, believing that carriers didn’t have a future respect to the proven battleships. Still, in the end a compromise was reached: in fact, since 1936 it was planned to refit a civilian ship, the Augustus, in order to become an experimental carrier, but the project was delayed for the opposition of the Supermarina; but with a new first minister in charge more interested to develop the Italian air branch on all levels, also for fear of possible exoneration, the Italian High Command finally gave the green disk, making the initial arrangements with the Ansaldo of Genova, agreeing the works could likely start for the late spring of 1940, while the ship will be renamed “Falco”. Supermarina was anyway reassured from Balbo the government will not push for new carriers, at least for now, as the first minister wasn’t intentioned to start a naval expansion, as iron, steel, coal and other materials were more required for other internal economic projects of development.

However, the Italian naval industry albeit orphan of the state commissions during the course of the war wasn’t inoperative at all; as the European war progressed, and after the start of the German submarine warfare in the Atlantic, British and Americans made various commissions to the Italian arsenals in order to replenish their convoy and transport flotilla, allowing the producers to make relevant war profits at the time; commissions which often included also German requests (behind the ones coming from the French government of Vichy) for transport ships needed for their expedition in Africa – a clear example how Italy during the war made affair from both sides and came out without particular problems.

As the naval expenses were planned to be contained, Balbo was intentioned to spend more money on the land forces reorganization, essentially on those issues: realization of more modern firearms, what to do of the most obsolete ones, expansion of the motorized sectors, so construction of more trucks and tanks. The Italians remained rather impressed over the “Guerra lampo” of the Germans in Europe, which combined use of motorized and air forces and tanks, despite they were definitely convinced of the modernization in said sense of their army after the success of “Fall Gelb”. Still at the start of 1940 Balbo was still willing to prioritize the rearm of the infantry over the development of the motorized and armor sectors, the latter one to be granted over the national car industry FIAT under the leadership of the Agnelli family. Balbo however wasn’t convinced of the excessive reliability of the planes developed by the same FIAT, wanting also to favour other industries of the sector, such as Piaggio, Cabroni and so on. But, as said before soon there was a company which effectively received a great benefit from the “air projects” of Balbo, and naturally giving benefit to the country as well…

Anyway, modern troops needed a modern network of infrastructures as well, so the Balbo government decided to put as priority in its agenda a series of commissions to developing the still infant motorway network. There were already existent some tracks realized so far for a total of 400 kilometers, especially around Milan, but were built to host a regional level of traffic and weren’t connected between them.

The Balbo government however discussed the possibility to realize a long motorway from Milan to Naples, so linking Bologna, Florence and Rome in the process; an ambitious project for sure, if completed will surely boost the road transport across the entire country, while giving work for many Italians and for many years, at condition to solve when necessary the problem represented by the part of the track which had to pass through the Tusco-Emilian Appennines. So, it was created an apposite commission to study the most adapt course and the eventual cost, which due to the usual bureaucratic difficulties spent four years in discussion and delays, but towards the end of 1944 was available to present the definitive project.

Remained to discuss the issue of the colonies and of Albania, as Libya was still “a sandbox” at the time in the perception of the Italians, the AOI a rather undeveloped territory, and Albania a mere outpost in the Balkans. At the same time, the military presence, especially in the colonies, surely dragged quite the money from the Italian treasury as well. It was time to stem in the best way possible those losses, starting to invest more; and like the project of the “transitalian motoway”, the best and the safest route was to invest over infrastructures, above all rails of which the three countries were practically naked. Meanwhile, above all over Libya, the Balbo government was starting to thinking of the possibility to develop a tourist economy centred around Tripoli, especially for the wealthy foreign classes in search of new esotic places and adventure, with the realization of a casino, some high class hotels and a civilian airports, to make the city the Casablanca or the Alexandria of Italy: which could allowed to more Italians to search new opportunities there. Those ambitious plans for Tripoli were effectively put in motion in 1943, surely changing the face of the city, but also becoming one of the various issues the establishment of the ASI had to face later…

Lastly, about the Universal Exposition: it was still considered an important trial in terms of prestige for the Fascist establishment regardless of Mussolini, so the project was confirmed in full, if not even extended with the planned expansion of the airport of Ciampino and the harbour of Civitavecchia, to host the most traffic possible. Some doubts were expressed over the realization of the so called “Arco dell’acqua e della luce” of Adalberto Libera (which later was called with a more common "Arco della Pace"), which will have to become the most relevant landmark of the exposition, above all for the technical difficulties and the costs, but in the end the government gave its approval to the entire project at its fullest, considering a relevant part of the work was anyway in an advanced phase of realization, with its main structure, the “Palazzo della Civiltà Italiana”, near to be complete. The costs were rather expensives, but "EUR42" had a peculiarity respect to previous expositions: to be a permanent quarter of Rome, with the function to act as junction between the city centre, Ostia, and the towns of the Agro Pontino, other than promoting an harmonious development of the capital towards south; so were expenses act to support a long term plan which will have to ensure a stable economical return.

So the Balbo government at the start of 1940 gave full impulse over the development of the country, awakening forces which otherwise will have oriented by Mussolini towards a conflict of unpredictable outcome. About Mussolini, there was however the problem to decide what to make of him, as in a country like Italy not even the secret police was able to keep things silent, and various Italians already knew the Duce didn’t resign voluntarily but was forcefully sacked because of his intention to drift the country towards the conflict; still, the general orientation for the confirmation of the peace and the necessity to pretend it was still a secret, even if a “secret of Pulcinella” (which everyone knows but don’t have the courage or the necessity to spate it), to not receive inopportune visits from the OVRA, make so the population accepted calmly what happened in Rome between the 7th and the 8th December of 1939. But Mussolini above all was still the Duce, a figure of prestige in Italy, and was rather inopportune to keep him isolated in villa Torlonia: but, because despite attempts of reconciliation coming from Ciano in name of the entire government, Mussolini refused spitefully any proposal to be a sort of figurehead, by his own decision continued to remain isolated and cut out from the entire Italian panorama…
 
Damn...i missed the last update. Good as always but that's my two cent:

- German request for merchant ships for Africa seem unsual, i doubt that Hitler and co. without the need to prop up Italy will found necessary fight in Africa. Unless italian neutrality made possible for the Free French grab some more colonies.
- Another work that will continue will be the fortification at the border with Germany, as OTL, if Benny don't fully trust the Germans i don't think that Balbo will do it.
- Material scarcity, without the need to fight there will be much less stress on the italian industry, more men available for the workforce, still Italy don't have many internal resources and a big part will be globbed up by the warring party so between the Alpin fortification, the Eur project, the continued work on land reclamation, the allocation for upgrade the defense of AOI, the plan to massive upgrade of the armed forces will be difficult. Said that, some reorganization and more time to prepare regarding the supply situation, the training of the officer corps and some general upgrade of the equipment like the new version of the Carcano and the new semiautomatic rifle, the Armaguerra. 39 (both delayed for the war as was feared that the different calibre will have caused logistic problem), some upgrade of the AA system of the ships and some minor modification of the subs (during the first month of war the problems were found and some work done with it, like smaller tower), the work on the radar will continue (at this stage is just a group of volunteers that continue a private project) and in general a modernization of the aircraft line like the introduction of the MC.201 (an aerodinamic upgraded Mc.200 with predisposition for a Fiat enginge...never developed but with slightly enhanched performances) and without the need of fight the Fiat G.50ter (a Fiat G.50 with a DB.601 engine), but the general overhaul that's needed will be much more difficult to obtain. Frankly is more probable that the British (and the americans) will book italian merchants for some deliveries than buy italian ships.
- The big problem is the industry, years of easy fascist contracts, without proper supervision or quality control, done exentially to keep the industrialist happy and fat greatly eroded the general capacity of the italian industry, and there will need some years before things will be again competitive.

Edit: At least some diplomatic good score will be obtained from the Wallies (at this stage only UK) with France falling as OTL ( and with some 'pressure' towards Vichy France), nothing of exceptional, more pratical things (cultural rights in Malta, that island dispute in AOI, favored rate for Suez, the implementation of the France-Italy agreement of 1935 and other minor things...still look good for new regime)
 
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(Posting because today or tomorrow at least I should post the next chapter)

Your analysis is interesting, Luke, I am keep those observations in regards to the future updates.

From what I am going to spoil, I can state:

1) the Balbo government is not intentioned to spend resources to fortify the Alpine front, as despite being wary of Hitler they believed the Germans had no reason to menace them for the moment. Also, there is enough hybris into the Italians to consider the Alps enough unattaccable.
2) There is a reason why the Germans are going to intervene in Africa and the Italians will be the catalyst of this intervention (but the British will put their own input as well).
3) Naturally, the issue of the raw materials is still the crucial one, and certainly Italy will not become a respected and fully modernized power in the short term or during the conflict... but Italy after all is a neutral country and it will let weight well its neutrality, towards the Allies and the Germans as well to get resources and funds...
 
Quite a stretch as remark, given that one of the most socially progressive Constitutions at the time, with all the democratic guarantees about freedoms you may need in the late 40s-early 50s, was meanwhile been enforced;

That would be the political side of things Nanwe was referring to in his post. Leaving aside that parts of the Constitution still remain today, at least in part, lofty statements of ideals.

obviously there were still remnants of the old fashioned paternal management, but they were more linked to the tradition of the Kingdom than specific debris of Fascism.

The Penal Code was reformed by tiny bits in baby steps; never entirely remade. It is the so-called Codice Rocco - dated 1930.
The Code of Penal Procedure, OTOH, was entirely remade - in 1988, also after partial modifications and patches. It also went back to the Fascist minister Rocco.
 
Subscribed but I have to run and buy me a Christmas tree so I'll read it and post my thoughts later. It looks very interesting and promising! :)
 
4. Tranquillità (Tranquillity)

The first half of 1940 for Italy was a period of relative tranquillity, as the war in Europe allowed the country to focus over its internal needs without particular worries. The population overall was building trust towards the post-Mussolini establishment, above all for keeping them out from the conflict; it also helped that Balbo engaged a tour across the peninsula to survey the general progress made so far since the start of the Fascist revolution, meeting various representatives of the civil society and the local administration of the PNF.

During his travels, he had the opportunity to stop in Modena, to have a talk with Enzo Ferrari, founder of the car racer squad “Scuderia Ferrari” being initially in association with car producer “Alfa Romeo”, but just few months prior breaking with them for incomprehension and raising his own company, the “Avio Auto costruzioni”. Ferrari had a knack for speed and was intentioned to build cars able to compete with the other racers squads and win, but he was also interested to build planes as well. In that sense helped the mark of his society, the well known “Cavallino Rampante” which was the emblem of WWI air hero Francesco Baracca, and granted from the parents of the dead pilot.

It wasn’t difficult for Balbo and Ferrari to strike a cooperation, also in name of regional solidarity; besides the first minister wanted to support various plane producers in part to stimulate the competition, in part to reduce the growing influence of FIAT in that sector, not having much trust in their models; and Ferrari was in search of funds the government was willing to grant. Considering the interests of Ferrari, Balbo asked him if he was interested to promote the development of a jet engine, considering the Italian researches in said sectors despite a promising start in the twenties then stopped: he didn’t known British and Germans were working already over models of jet engineered fighters, still he believed investments in that sector could be valuable. Ferrari was intrigued of the idea, so he started to push the Avio Auto in said direction.

Meanwhile, Ciano was involved in another diplomatic tour, that time in the Balkans, to confirm or negotiate terms with the countries of the region. His first stop was Hungary, to reassure the regent Horthy of the continuation of the Italian-Hungarian support. Horthy however at that time was torn by his expansionistic agenda; because of the dissolution of Checoslovakia he managed to regain some territories from Slovakia albeit he hoped for the reintegration of the entire country in a similar manner like Hitler did in Bohemia, under the pretension of a protectorate. He was of course interested to revise gradually the impositions of the Treaty of Trianon, but was hesitant to anchor his country with Germany with an alliance, seeing also Italy after the sack of Mussolini was interested to stay out from the main European country. Ciano was willing to concede support over the Hungarian claims, but certain difficulties remained over the Yugoslavian issue and in particular over Croatia, as Horthy wanted a sea access while the Italians weren’t so willing to concede that, considering how much were involved with the Ustacia and the Croatian freedom movement. Still, the possibility of a war against Belgrade was put under consideration.

Ciano however was more cautious over the Hungarian claims over Transylvania, not denying them but preferring a diplomatic mediation with the Romanians. Bucarest in fact was the next stop of Ciano’s Balkan tour. Here, the King of the country Karol II was rather worried of the development of the European country and above all of the Molotov-Ribbentrop agreement, as it gave the USSR great freedom of movement in Eastern Europe, as the invasion of Poland first, followed by the Winter War and the invasion of the Baltic countries showed. Karol was sure that Romania will be the next target of Stalin’s appetite, because of the Soviet claim over Bessarabia; not counting also the interests of Hungary and Bulgaria over the territories lost in the aftermath of WWI. Karol was tempted to seek an alliance with a great European country, eventually on the side of Germany, excluding an Allied alignment for fear Hungary and Bulgaria then will side with Hitler; but the arrival of Ciano made him consider the idea of an alliance with Italy, which had the benefit of being a neutral country.

The Italian first minister wasn’t hostile over the idea of an Ital-Romanian alliance, considering also between Romania and Italy there were cultural affinities and both didn’t have reason of contentious towards each other; but Ciano knew well enough the Italians will be barred to help concretely Romania against a concrete Soviet menace, considering the Regia Marina could never be allowed by the Turks to pass the straits, or Greece and Yugoslavia to concede land transit rights. Ciano however was willing to help Romania at the limit of the Italian diplomatic capacities over the two other potential claim crisis of Transylvania and Dubrogia (even not promising Karol nothing over the preservation of the Romanian territorial integrity).

The third stop of Ciano was Sofia. Here, overall the relations between Italy and Bulgaria were fairly good, despite tensions between the royal houses which involved the Vatican: in substance, Boris III promised to marry Giovanna di Savoia, daughter of Vittorio Emanuele III, with a Catholic marriage and to raise eventual sons into the Catholic religion, as prelude of a possible reconciliation between Rome and the Bulgarian Orthodox Church: only, even if Boris married in Assisi Giovanna with the Catholic rite, then he made another and more lavish celebration in Sophia presenting it as another wedding under the Orthodox rite, recognizing the latter as the official one; plus later he baptized his daughter and his son as Christian Orthodox. But, aside the rift between the two dynasties and the Vatican (of which expiatory victim at the time was the Bulgarian apostolic nuncio Angelo Roncalli, moved later in Turkey), the Fascist government nevertheless not being directly involved in those issues was in good touch with the Bulgarian counterpart. As usual, the discussion routed over the satisfaction of the respective claims, hence as usual how to convince Belgrade to fold over their requests; at the same time, Ciano urged prudence over the Bulgarian claims in Greece, albeit not excluding them but not wanting to see involved the British and the Turks, prospecting eventually a limited war between Sofia and Athens without the official involvement of the Great Powers. Anyway the meeting with Boris and his first minister Filov was considered the most satisfactory one in the sense the Bulgarians showed to be enough receptive towards the Italian proposals, essentially because the Soviet menace was less perceived and the German influence was less intruding.

From Sofia Ciano arranged a meeting with Ismet Inonu, president of Turkey, in Istanbul. The Turks weren’t so historically amiable with the Italians – the memories of 1912 still burned and viewed as prologue of the fall of Ottoman Turkey: plus the Mediterranean ambitions of Mussolini didn’t help the two countries to develop a correct post war normalization, and Rhodes was still a sort of dagger pointed in direction of the straits. But Ciano was intentioned to build more favourable relations, despite the negotiations encountered difficulties to advance when he asked over a possible modification of the treaty of Montreux over the transit in the Straits: the Italian foreign minister in fact asked the possibility for Italian warships and transport to enter in the Black Sea to protect the Romanians in case of Soviet invasion. Inonu however refused, not denying his eventual support over the formation of a Ital-Romanian alliance in anti Soviet support, but feared by caving it to be forced eventually to fold over similar requests from Stalin allow him to let pass his ships into the Straits and then into the Mediterranean: possibility even Ciano saw as unacceptable. Still it appeared possible a normalization between Italy and Turkey and so it was the tendency for most of the 40’s…

Then, it was the time of Athens. Neither the Greeks were so warm towards the Italians, believing the invasion of Albania was a prelude for a conflict with them, but Ciano, knowing the risks of a war which could drag a British intervention, tried to reassure them. Iohannes Metaxas, first minister and Greek dictator, wasn’t enough bought however by the words of the Italian foreign minister, even if among all the other authoritarian regimes in Europe was the one most relieved by the sacking of Mussolini. The relations between Italy and Greece remained quite tense, albeit in 1941 after the death of Metaxas his successor Korizis attempted a reconciliation with Rome however too late for Greece at the time…

Lastly, it was the time of Belgrade. Surely it was the most difficult meeting faced by Ciano, as Paul Karadordevic, regent in name of his nephew Paul II and de facto ruler of the country, wasn’t intentioned to give concessions of sort to Rome, even if there was an attempt of reconciliation from his Italian counterpart. The regent wasn’t sure of the reliability of the Yugoslavian cohesion and above all of his armed forces, even if he granted some autonomy from the Croatians few months before with the institution of the “Banovina of Croatia” to circumvent their growing desire of independency partially fuelled by the same Italians; still, he counted still over the French support, enough to convince the Italians to not take hostile actions; at the same time, he refused any negotiation to eventually concede transit to Italian troops towards Romania, which later proved to be a diplomatic mistake because it soured the relations between Belgrade and Bucharest, so contributing further to isolate Yugoslavia after the fall of France and the gradual alignment of its Balkan neighbours towards Germany, and leading towards the twilight of the Kingdom…

However, overall the international image of Italy in those months came out rejuvenated, after the doubts followed the invasion of Albania, above all because without Mussolini it was perceived less as a menace from the other Great Powers and the surrounding countries; plus, its neutrality was well viewed by certain foreign investors, secretly encouraged by the same Italians, in order to reduce the monopolistic German influence, above all over the constant issue of the raw materials necessary to support the national industry.

In that period, were essentially the French to have increased their general volume of trade towards Italy, giving maybe more they could permit to give away from a country settled towards a war economy: but Paris believed so by helping Italy to being less dependent from the Germans to further drift them away, while it contributed a general atmosphere of relaxation in transalpine country because of the prolonged German inactivity on the Western front. They were supports well welcomed, but still insufficient to break the Italian economical balance in favour of the Entente side. There were necessary other markets, and the one which seemed the more probable in the Italian perception was the American one.

It was enough known in Rome Roosevelt wasn’t sympathetic of the authoritarian regimes, and surely despised Hitler, but also was enough appreciated the Italian “non belligerency”: enough to attempt a diplomatic mission which neither Berlin could contest (officially was a commercial mission along with the Italian necessity to repair the relations with America after the invasion of Albania: it seemed Hitler didn’t like at all that new diplomatic move of the Italians but it let it slide again), being the US a neutral country as well. However, with some surprise, along Ciano it was decided that also Balbo will join the Italian diplomatic campaign in America, sure his past appeal he had among them could help to smooth certain possible divergences. Besides, he was sure enough to leave Italy safety, as his political allies will hold the fort during their absence without particular problems.

After the approval coming from the White House to the meeting, and the proper preparations from both sides, despite bad omens which suggested to delay the encounter due to the sudden German invasion of Denmark and Norway, Ciano and Balbo arrived in New York the 7th of May 1940, first stop of their American tour, meeting the Ital-American major Fiorello la Guardia and their compatriots in Little Italy, receiving a more than warm support, previously prepared by the local newspapers, such as the New York Times which praised them as “heralds of the peace” for their will to reach soon a negotiated end of the European conflict, not counting their interest to keep Italy out from said war as well. The 10th, the two were in Washington preparing the meeting with Roosevelt but were abruptly woken up by sudden news coming from Europe…

… The Germans just invaded by surprise Belgium, Luxembourg and Netherlands.
 
… The Germans just invaded by surprise Belgium, Luxembourg and Netherlands.

Uh OH the shit had hit the proverbial fan...one thing that had come in mind regarding Africa is that with Italy neutral, there is the slim possibility that the French goverment will not properly surrender but keep the fight (maybe the Franco-British Union plan will be given the green light) and evacuate in Algeria so Germany will 'forced' to start a North African campaign.

Sad news for the French jew population, the italian zone was a safe haven for them.

Good update about Ciano 'charming offensive'...even if clearly the overall situation is very complicated; seem that for Yugoslavia and Greece hard times are coming.
 
5. Sull’orlo (On the edge)

The news coming from Europe seemed destined to have compromised the meeting between Roosevelt and the Italian leadership, as the White House suspected they knew of the German surprise attack and arrived in Washington to distract the American public opinion rather than search a diplomatic agreement between Italy and the USA. Balbo and Ciano were in a rather delicate position, undecided about the stance to take about that sudden development, considering also during the early morning they were informed the reservations of the President over the meeting.

As the meeting should have taking place in the morning, it was agreed from both side to let it slide in the evening of said day, at it was necessary for them to make their own telegraphic contacts – contacts which naturally the Americans spied through the FBI intervention. Telegraphs were sent from Washington to Rome, and to Rome from Berlin: the Italians needed to sound the intentions of Hitler, but receiving only lapidary statements over the necessity of the invasion of the Low Countries to bring France into the German kneels, and not necessarily the Germans were tied to inform the Italians about their military information from the moment the latter weren’t into the war. It was somewhat a violation from the German side of the Pact of Steel regarding the mutual exchange of information, but to be completely honest, the Italians violated it as well giving the Germans false information over the last diplomatic exchanges with the Entente countries.

The Germans, or to be more precisely Hitler, became more wary of the Italians during 1940, but on the other side he saw some advantages in the enduring neutrality, above all to see their role progressively reduced in proportion of the German expansion, so that the more they will stay neutral, the less will obviously receive in the future peace negotiations. At the same time, if Italy decided to pull out from the Pact with that current establishment, Hitler was sure after get rid of the Allies, defeated the USSR and becoming the hegemonic world power, to be able to deal also with them and quite easily; so he gave precise orders to prepare an eventual plan of invasion of the peninsula, known in the inner circle of the Nazi as “Operation Alaric”, later expanded with the so called “Operation Konstantin” to get rid of the Italian presence in the Western Balkans as well; the Italians, fortunately for them, arrived to know of Hitler’s projects only during the Nuremberg trials, when Goering and other Nazi top executives confirmed the existence of a plan of invasion of the peninsula.

Returning to the 10th May of 1940, after making the proper exchanges of considerations with Grandi and the Royal House, Balbo and Ciano released from the Italian Embassy in Washington an official statement of “sadness” about the German aggression of the Low Countries as it will not help in their opinion to help conclude the conflict in Europe, while raising further the continental tensions. They didn’t denounce openly Hitler, but in a side note they let it knew they expressed “regret” to not having received previously information of the attack from Berlin, to demonstrate they didn’t know of the plans of the Fuhrer.

It wasn’t much and doubts still remained, but the White House was sufficient reassured of the Italian not involvement in the invasion, and the meeting was confirmed. There was risible tension from both sides, but at least it helped the Italian delegation from being more sincere about their real intentions. Balbo and Ciano confirmed their intention to keep their country of the conflict, as was enough clear them Roosevelt was quite supportive of the Entente, and also because honestly believed the Germans could have overextended their forces with their attack on the Low Countries and the Anglo-French forces will in the end stop them like in 1914; but to reinforce their neutrality, they also asked financial support to separate Italy from the economic dependence hold by Berlin; not enough, still, because they didn’t hide the fear a decisive position in the anti-German front could convince Hitler to attack by surprise Italy, as in effect he started to considered the idea as stated before.

In the end, an agreement to quietly supply Italy, officially by sending materials for the development and realization in time of the Universal Exposition, but behind that commission to channel other investments towards the peninsula. The agreement later passed through the Congress, albeit officially was never recognized from the historians as a Lend-Lease agreement, at least not until the end of the war, when Truman decided to increase considerably the investments towards Italy and its associates in anti-Communist function; before, the American investments remained rather modest and only during 1943, as the German commitment on Italy started to decrease, the volume of reciprocal affairs started to increase (but never at the levels reached for the UK and the USSR).

The invasion of the Low Countries forced Balbo and Ciano, after the meeting with Roosevelt, to return in Italy, renouncing over the final stop of their American tour: Chicago. However, before to leave the country from New York, they managed to arrange in extremis a meeting with Enrico Fermi, who worked at the Columbia University at the time. After the death of Guglielmo Marconi, Fermi was universally recognized as the most brilliant Italian physician at the time, albeit he escaped from his country because of the alliance with Germany and the establishment of the racial laws, which put under discrimination his wife, who was Hebrew. Certainly the post-Mussolini establishment was intentioned to convince him to return in their homeland, as Fermi could have been interested to do so if the racial laws will be definitely abolished, but he opposed at the time a courteous yet firm denial adducing he was working into a project of the Columbia university.

The physician in fact was cooperating on the preliminary phase of the Manhattan project at the time, of which both Balbo and Ciano were unaware, and wasn’t intentioned to continue his studies in Italy in the case in the end will side with the Germans in the war or the racial laws, despite their freezing, will not be repealed entirely. However, a certain link between Fermi and the Italian government was established.

When Balbo and Ciano returned in Italy, they were forced to soothe the growing rage of the pro-German gerarchs, which contested the removal of Mussolini and the confirmation of the Italian neutrality, believing that the “triumvirate” (so officiously was called the alliance between Balbo, Ciano and Grandi) could have throw away a golden occasion for Italy; the internal debate became so heated it was necessary to call a new session of the Gran Consiglio del Fascismo.

Besides, the calls of the Gran Consiglio were destined to become more frequent from that session, from the moment with the removal of the monolithic presence of Mussolini and the redistribution of his prerogatives, the dictatorship was slowly moving towards an oligarchic system, where the faction more powerful commanded until it had the majority of votes. In fact, the pro-Germans proposed a motion for the conclusion of the Italian neutrality and the declaration of war to the Entente, but it was rebuffed, as Ciano convinced the majority of the gerarchs after the deal made with Roosevelt – despite, as he wrote in his diaries, bluffing over the real concessions obtained in Washington. Also, Balbo added his doubts over the possible success of the German offensive – after all the same strategy was attempted in 1914 and it didn’t work.

However, the Italians overestimated the French capacities and underestimated the German ones, as the successful Ardennes German march first, and the encirclement of Dunkerque of the Anglo-French forces then proved. As the Low Countries and France during the rest of May started to collapse, the Italian pro-Germans returned on the offensive, calling for another session of the Great Council for the 9th June, sure for that time to obtain the victory, considering the same Balbo and Ciano started to have doubts in matter.

However, an apparently minor event contributed greatly to preserve the Italian neutrality. It happened at the end of May the King of Belgium, Leopold III, was intentioned to sign the capitulation treaty in strength of the fact his government, leaded by Hubert Pierlot decided to escape in France to attempt to reorganize a glimpse of resistance, entering so in contrast with his ruler who decided to remain in Bruxelles, at cost to became a prisoner. However, Leopold was openly contested also by his brother, Charles Theodore, who preferred to continue the fight in France rather than bow to the Germans. Failing to convince the King, his brother then after a moment of hesitation he escaped from Bruxelles alone (he wasn’t married and didn’t have sons, so he didn’t have nothing to lose), but as Northern France was invaded by the German armies, disillusioned over a possible victory of the Allies, he didn’t seek refuge in Paris and contact the Belgian government in exile, but escaped instead in direction of Italy, sure to count over the protection of House Savoia and of his sister Maria Josè.

Leopold signed the capitulation the 28th May, Charles Theodore escaped the 1st of June, reaching Italy the 4th, and arrived in Rome only the 6th after the necessary identification controls. Naturally, House Savoia all was ready to proclaim the right of asylum, forcing the Balbo government at the moment to confirm it. The prince for the first days of his Italian permanence remained secluded in the Quirinal.

The news of the escape of Charles Theodore reached soon both London and Berlin, as both requested the return of the prince. Naturally Hitler was rather upset and suspicious over that series of events, intentioned to request the extradition of a person which at the point was considered a German – and Belgian, from the point officially with the capitulation passed on the German side - enemy, while the recently appointed British first minister Winston Churchill and Pierlot requested to allow him to seek refuge in London, as with Leopold reduced as a mere prisoner, puppet, or however recognized as incapacitated to exercise in full his prerogatives, there was the intention to build around him the Belgian resistance, by proclaim him regent. The British-Belgian proposition was however a move which later the historians considered quite controversial in its application, because if the Belgian constitution conceded in case of sudden incapacity of the ruler, his prerogatives will be temporally exercised by the government until the proclamation of a regent which however needed to be confirmed by the parliament. Now, as the Pierlot government was still considered as the legitimate one on the basis Leopold never disinherited it until the moment of the capitulation, could have eventually proposed Charles Theodore to become regent, despite in truth he could only be considered as a “acting” regent, as needing a confirmation of a parliament which unlike the cabinet didn’t escape and after the capitulation was dissolved by force.

The Italian cabinet found itself in a so delicate situation, to the point the destiny of Charles Theodore became the pivotal point of the meeting of the 9th June of the Gran Consiglio, with the pro-Germans more determined than ever after hearing of voices over the imminent fall of Paris. However, in those last days Balbo and Ciano managed to reorganize their thoughts. Giving the Belgian prince to the hands of the Nazi will have destroyed the international image of Italy among the Western powers after the effort spent towards them in the last months (plus Balbo was rather annoyed by the demeaning mode of the German request); allowing him to reach Britain will make Hitler more furious than ever towards the Italians. So, they decided to adopt a middle stance which was the one preferred by the Savoia and through their influence, by the Vatican: Charles Theodore will remain in Italy protected by the asylum rights until the end of the conflict.

Naturally, said decision will have enforced the Italian neutrality as well, and the Pro-Germans were hostile to it; but adducing the violation in any sense of the asylum right will have damaged the Italian Royal Family and provoking the hostility of one of the two sides, in the end with a rather strict majority it was confirmed the asylum to Charles Theodore. For the chronicle, the pro-Germans obtained the more large support ever and fortunately for Italy, also because of the successive events they will never manage anymore to acquire so near the majority as in that session. The vote over the exile made so to drop further discussions over the Italian intervention in the conflict. In the later day, both the British and the German embassies in Rome were informed of the definitive Italian decision on the matter.

Both Churchill and Hitler caved it; for the first, at least it was a decision which reinforced the Italian neutrality so it let it decay by the time, while for the second, surely despite the Fuhrer was more irritated than his enemies from this new obstacle coming by his supposed main ally, at least prohibited to the British to get a possible propaganda boost among the Belgians to rally them over a regent rather than a puppet king. And if Italy wished to endure their neutrality, then it was their loss in the end.

The 10th June 1940, the Italian newspapers came out in their first pages with the news of the fall of Paris; on an angle, a short article released an official declaration over the prosecution of the Italian non belligerence…
 
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