Actually, scratch that, I'll respond first.
First of all, I've been absent primarily due to the fact that I'm graduating in a few days (wish me luck, or pray for me, iffen you're a praying individual
). So finals, convocation, etc. have tied me down significantly.
Perhaps a infanta for some noble italian family? With only three children I think Miguel should be looking for foreign allies. Save the doministic one for Juan who it seems will be rather fertile!
Why do I have the feeling Miguel is gonna die soon?
You're probably right - with relations with the Genoese improving, I can see marriages being arranged with the merchant families. Likewise, Miguel is still well before any conscious "Iberocentrism" is going to develop, so he - like any good European monarch at the time - will seek marriages for his daughters overseas.
As for that feeling of yours, I can't say anything... yet.
I think what is also worth considering is that in OTL Henry VIII at one point believed that the Spanish alliance would help press his claim to the French throne after Francis I was captured. One of the reasons they did not was because of Henry VIII himself.
A less antagonistic relationship between England and Spain will be major threat to France. I wonder how you see them responding.
I'd believe it. However, despite the terms of the Treaty of Toulouse, Juan Pelayo is going to feel a connection to Brittany and, by extension, France (due to his mother) similar to Charles V's OTL fondness for Burgundy, and will probably have some early ambitions of uniting France and Spain - possibly through cooperation with the Hapsburgs in exchange for Burgundy and the duchy of Savoy and the old kingdom of Arles going back to the HRE - although for the obvious sake of realism such will remain only a pipe dream (as cool as such a scenario would be).
I think ITTL England might try to press some of its old claims to France, but will probably only succeed in keeping the Channel Islands and the Pale of Calais (and also maybe receive Dunkirk from the Hapsburgs for their assistance against the French). Most of the substantial gains England ITTL will make against France as far as I can see are going to be very similar to OTL: naval superiority north of the Bay of Biscay, war reparations, and preferential trade agreements - the latter of which might even serve to ameliorate Franco-English relations in the long run (
doux-commerce and all that).
As far as the incoming France-screw will go, it might actually be less damaging than IOTL. The three-sided pressure from Spain, England, and the Hapsburgs, as well as the rise of French protestantism and the failure of the Italian wars are all going to force a significant paradigm shift in the French monarchy - one that will more than likely more closely align with the interests of its enemies. For the French state, this means stricter Catholicism (possibly even ultramontanism to spite the Hapsburgs and to bring their native Church to heel through a patronato-esque agreement with the Papacy in return for their support) and a policy of non-aggression with their neighbors for a while (which will probably lead to them seeking their fortunes overseas more aggressively). TTL's French monarchy is going to be re-shaped in the crucible of the next few decades big time, and will take on a much more parliamentarian/constitutional appearance than was seen IOTL.
I think a Miguel surviving scenario is butterflying the Magellan expedition and Spain's hold in the Philippines..butterflying Lakandula would also mean that Luzon is not conquered..it is Lakandula's cunning manipulation that led most of Luzon to the Spanish, I think his personality will also be butterflied, so the spanish can have Visayas in any scenario.
And, the united kingdoms of all Spain conquer everything south of Mindanao, converting them to Catholicism.
the spanish getting the spice trade is what the spanish get if the spanish were not tied with Luzon..so it is a winwin scenario..for all..and the Spanish would retain ternate..
But it is fine if you chose not to butterfly anything but the realistic scenario would lead to the Philippines having changed borders which means no luzon for the philippines ternate and celebes instead..
That's really informative (you always have the best insight on the East Indies), so thank you! However, I think Luzon will probably end up in Spanish hands (although with much more difficulty than IOTL) due to the fact that Manila Bay is such an advantageous harbor and the fact that the Portuguese know (or, rather, will come to know) that the key to East Indian trade lies with co-opting the many Chinese trading communities - which will require cutting out the Malay/Muslim middleman wherever possible.
Also, you're right that the Magellan expedition has been butterflied, but Magellan, as a Portuguese seaman, is probably going to end up in the East Indies all the same. The vast wealth of the East Indies and the relative primitiveness of many of its native peoples will spark something of a conquistador period there for the Portuguese. Since there will be more Portuguese migrants travelling to the Orient/India during the first half of the 16th century than to the Americas - while official royal Portuguese business will be caught up in mapping the region, capturing key ports, and assisting the Hindu states in Sunda and Bali - some thousands of Portuguese subjects will be traipsing around the Moluccas and Philippines and scheming, intermarrying, and essentially rampaging their way into an arrangement in those islands similar to that found in early Spanish Mexico. Ternate and Tidore will definitely be among the first to go, while the situation with the sultanate of Brunei will most likely remain at loggerheads for several generations.
Amazing. I can't wait for more.
Thank you very much, I can't wait to get back to writing more
Actually OTL Henry VIII's England was pretty good at switching between France and Spain. In fact though both the French and Habsburg blocks were more powerful, it was the English support, which granted one side the edge over the other. Even IOTL Charles V relatively quickly forgave Henry VIII, for what he had done to his aunt, if such an alliance would benefit the goals of his dynasty.
Torbald: genetically the OTL match between Ferdinand of Austria and Anna of Bohemia & Hungary was rather healthy (as far as Royal matches can be), the matches between Portugal and Habsburg Spain (half Trastamara) OTOH were far less healthy, given the close relations between the various Iberian Royal Families. I'd almost say, the subsequent frequent matches between the Spanish and Austrian branches of the house of Habsburg, is something Charles and Ferdinand learned in Spain... That is to say, and I quote, Habsburg women 'for all their genetic defects', was a result of those later matches, which at the point of your TL (OTL and TTL) was not that big of an issue, OTL that took a couple of generations.
Fascinating. It seems, then, that the Spanish royal family ITTL will actually, quite paradoxically, be made healthier by its Hapsburg marriages!
England, to me, seems the most difficult to predict of all the countries of Western Europe in regards to what Arthur surviving means for it. While the English Reformation, the Armada, and et cetera have all been butterflied, there is nothing to say that Spain and England won't be hostile with one another in the near or distant future. England's inescapable maritime disposition obviously means that keeping them out of the Americas or the East Indies will be an impossibility - no matter how fervent their Catholic devotion ITTL and their consequent observance of
Inter caetera. After all, fervent Catholicism certainly never prevented the French from acting as aggressively as they did IOTL towards the most zealous Catholic nations in the world at the time. Until the late 17th century or during the 18th/19th centuries, English overseas possessions east of the Cape of Good Hope will probably be mere toeholds for the most part, at least more so than IOTL. The Americas are harder to discern, as John Cabot's voyages have already taken place and England might like a release valve for some of its poorer subjects and religious minorities (especially being an island), and the Spanish are highly unlikely to maintain a cohesive grip on well-settled, racially-miscegenated colonies in both its Americas and the East Indies (as well as in some parts of Africa and India) AND be able to do the same in the sheer expanse north of Florida. The OTL Spanish and Portuguese may have liked to have a lot of children and were less likely to shy away from interracial marriage, but all of the reasons for that (whether their Catholicism, their cultural history, or their predominantly male colonists) are all more or less afforded to the English ITTL. So we'll see!