Una diferente ‘Plus Ultra’ - the Avís-Trastámara Kings of All Spain and the Indies (Updated 11/7)

[X Oristos]

There is also another butterfly in TTL: Spain controls Aden in addition to the OTL portuguese conquest of Hormuz. Between them and Malacca, the keys of the Indian Ocean belong to Spain. Don't forget the old aphorism that 'whoever is the lord of Malacca, has his hand on Venice's throat". The spice trade is now 100% iberian-controlled. Moreover, the internal Indian Ocean trade is spanish-controlled.

The Ottomans cannot hope to establish large fleets in the Red Sea, the kind of galleon fleets that can rest control of Aden and Hormuz. The fleet they built for the Diu Expedition was comprised mostly of galleys and galliots. The "galleons" according to the wiki article were dangerous to sail as they were shallow-drafted. What kind of a galleon would be more shallow-drafted than a galley? I believe they were not galleons at all.

In OTL their naval presence was more guerre de course and not a sustained effort to wrest control of the Indian Ocean (Hadim Suleyman Pasha's expedition was not a sustained effort). In TTL, the Aden secured early on, there will no be no rise of ottoman corsairs like Sefer Reis. The corsairs will be limited to the Red Sea where they can do extremely little harm to portuguese merchantmen.

I believe with a spanish Aden at play, the Venetians will turn to manufacture even more quickly compared to OTL. I think we will see the 17th century Venice - a city of industry and sight-seeing instead of trade- arriving earlier. Certainly there will be trade in smaller scale, servicing the intra- East Mediterranean routes and exploiting Crete, but the days of the spice trade are over.

Last but not least, the Iberians are much more succesful in christianizing the Spice Islands compared to OTL. When other European naval powers arrive, the locals will be catholic and perhaps hispanized to a degree. Iberian presence is bound be much stronger compared to the OTL portuguese one. At the same time, the Cape colony has been founded earlier on. Viriato had made a pretty interesting timeline with a Cape Colony. The local conditions in the Cape, ensure a great demographic potential. If other Europeans enter the Indian Ocean trade in the early 1600s, the colony will be a big one and could be the best possible base to project power in the Indian Ocean. When other Powers have only ships and a trade-stations in the tropics (with great death rates), the Spanish will have a large and thriving settler colony nearby in a temperate climate zone. It is my honest opinion that it would be extremely difficult for another Power to wrest control of the Indian Ocean under these conditions.

 

[Tertius711]

There is also another butterfly in TTL: Spain controls Aden in addition to the OTL portuguese conquest of Hormuz. Between them and Malacca, the keys of the Indian Ocean belong to Spain. Don't forget the old aphorism that 'whoever is the lord of Malacca, has his hand on Venice's throat". The spice trade is now 100% iberian-controlled. Moreover, the internal Indian Ocean trade is spanish-controlled.

The Ottomans cannot hope to establish large fleets in the Red Sea, the kind of galleon fleets that can rest control of Aden and Hormuz. The fleet they built for the Diu Expedition was comprised mostly of galleys and galliots. The "galleons" according to the wiki article were dangerous to sail as they were shallow-drafted. What kind of a galleon would be more shallow-drafted than a galley? I believe they were not galleons at all.

In OTL their naval presence was more guerre de course and not a sustained effort to wrest control of the Indian Ocean (Hadim Suleyman Pasha's expeditino was not a sustained effort). In TTL, the Aden secured early on, there will no be no rise of ottoman corsairs like Sefer Reis. The corsairs will be limited to the Red Sea where they can do extremely little harm to portuguese merchantmen.

I believe with a spanish Aden at play, the Venetians will turn to manufacture even more quickly compared to OTL. I think we will see the 17th century Venice - a city of industry and sight-seeing instead of trade- arriving earlier. Certainly there will be trade in smaller scale, servicing the intra- East Mediterranean routes and exploiting Crete, but the days of the spice trade are over.

Last but not least, the Iberians are much more succesful in christianizing the Spice Islands compared to OTL. When other European naval powers arrive, the locals will be catholic and perhaps hispanized to a degree. Iberian presence is bound be much stronger compared to the OTL portuguese one. At the same time, the Cape colony has been founded earlier on. Viriato had made a pretty interesting timeline with a Cape Colony. The local conditions in the Cape, ensure a great demographic potential. If other Europeans enter the Indian Ocean trade in the early 1600s, the colony will be a big one and could be the best possible base to project power in the Indian Ocean. When other Powers have only ships and a trade-stations in the tropics (with great death rates), the Spanish will have a large and thriving settler colony nearby in a temperate climate zone. It is my honest opinion that it would be extremely difficult for another Power to wrest control of the Indian Ocean under these conditions.

Heck, we might see all of modern day Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Brunei, New Guinea, and the Phillipines under Spanish rule. The sheer wealth of this is...

Plus a Spanish Cape Colony will be intriguing to see. Combine this with Spain literally ruling all of South America and well.. the sun never sets alright.

 

[Jedevari]

Truly an universal empire

 

[maguado87]

Actually this might force Europe to build a coalition against Spain? Sure they won against the Ottomon but Spain gained room to grow

 

[Tertius711]

Actually this might force Europe to build a coalition against Spain? Sure they won against the Ottomon but Spain gained room to grow

Perhaps but why? Europe is filled with rivals, no way England and the HRE ally with France for example and the Spanish aren't making noise in Europe but rather holding the Pyrenees and defending their Italian possessions.

 

[FellowNerd]

Perhaps but why? Europe is filled with rivals, no way England and the HRE ally with France for example and the Spanish aren't making noise in Europe but rather holding the Pyrenees and defending their Italian possessions.

Spain was similarly fighting a defensive war that the holy league joined. The rest of Europe might not be a fan of the gains of Spain, but they see the costs, and understand those gains came mostly at the expense of an unsympathetic enemy

 

[X Oristos]

Only a United England & Scotland is in a more advantageous position than United Iberia to become the world's foremost naval power. France has severe disadvantages in becoming a premier naval power, namely the long land borders and the need to sustain two different fleets, one the Atlantic and one in the Mediterranean. The same limitation applies to the Dutch. I argue that the Dutch became a true seapower only during the Regent's era. Only De Witt built the battlefleet able to wrest control of the seas. Before that and despite being the premier trading power, the dutch navy was a cruiser navy, one designed to protect merchantmen rather than having a strong battleship core.

There is another thing to consider: the western Mediterranean is becoming a spanish lake. Without Barbary corsairs, come 1600, the italian, sicilian and south spanish coasts won't be basically deserted of people. Thousands of ships won't be captured by corsairs. A million or so christians won't be enslaved. The treasure to build a vast infrastructure t combat piracy and slave raids won't be needed. The vast private treasure spent on buying back christian slaves will be funnelled in the economy instead.

Greater population + more trade+ more coastal settlements+ more capital = A TTL western Mediterranean that will be much wealthier and populous.

Recently I read the book "Christian slaves, muslim masters". I am cherrypicking some of the quotes that drew my attention and helped me formulate my above arguments:

Big redemptions required massive amounts of money to pull off: some. times 50,000 or even 100,000 scudi, zecchini, or pieces of eight, all in that had to be physically transported to Barbary

Even for the most robust economies of the era, such regular outlays and losses could not have been lightly borne: Pierre Dan estimated that between 1605 and 1634 the Algerians took over 600 ships, worth "more than twenty million [livres];" the 80 French merchant ships they captured between 1628 and 1635 were valued at 4,752,000 livres; likewise, ransoming 1,006 slaves from Algiers in 1768 cost the French Trinitarians 3,500,000 livres. What paying out such sums over the course of several centuries meant to the states involved - in terms of lost investment capital, frustrated development projects, or abandoned human settlements - has yet to be fully explored.

There were well over 500 towers guarding the southern half of Italy and the major Italian islands: on Sicily alone there were 137, · an average of one every 5-6 miles

The result, then, is that between 1530 and 1780 there were almost certainly a million and quite possibly as many as a million and a quarter white, European Christians enslaved by the Muslims of the Barbary Coast.

It is worth mentioning that the worse raiding took place in 1580-1680.

 

[Stark]

X Oristos, thank you for all these nice information and insights, quite interesting.

 

[Ultima Ratio]

Greater population + more trade+ more coastal settlements+ more capital = A TTL western Mediterranean that will be much wealthier and populous.

Wow, I never realized the extent of the depopulation caused by the Barbary pirates. I always thought it was a bit more than a nuisance, barring some extreme cases like Hayreddin Barbarosa. Really interesting stuff, if those numbers are right the implications of the lack of piracy is huge. Spain will be even richer and will have insane population surplus.

 

[X Oristos]

Wow, I never realized the extent of the depopulation caused by the Barbary pirates. I always thought it was a bit more than a nuisance, barring some extreme cases like Hayreddin Barbarosa. Really interesting stuff, if those numbers are right the implications of the lack of piracy is huge. Spain will be even richer and will have insane population surplus.

Indeed! The OTL devastation was most pronounced in Italy and the mediterranean islands. To quote from "Christian Slaves, Muslim Masters":

The Italian peninsula had by then been prey to the Barbary corsairs for two centuries or more, and its coastal populations had largely withdrawn into walled, hilltop villages or the larger towns like Rimini, abandoning miles of once populous shoreline to vagabonds and freebooters. All along the Adriatic coast, a zone said to be "continually infested by Turks, the populations were for the most part crowded into similar fortified centers - cities like Pesaro, Ancona, Civitanova, San Benedetto, Pescara and Vasto. Along the western coast the safest places were on a few defendable promontories: only towns like Civitavecchia, Anzio, Terracina, and Gaeta offered much protection to local farmers and fishermen

Combined with the enslaved people, the huge costs of buying back christian slaves, building infastructure and have economic life in the coasts - traditionally where the trade volume is concentrated, especially since southern Europe doesn't have big navigatable rivers- the results were devastating.

By the way, the book I mentioned is usally quoated for the calculation of the number of christian Europeans enslaved by the Barbary corsairs. However, the author calculated the 1-1,25 million slaves solely regarding Algeria, Tunisia and Tripolitania. Morocco that had as much a thriving slaving culture as Algiers is not included in the calculations. For what matters, neither corsairs based in eastern Mediterranean that were preying upon venetian-held possessions (Ionian Islands, Crete, Cyclades, Cyprus, Peloponnese in 1688-1715) and genovese Chios.

If we make the hypothesis that moroccan corsairs were as successful as the Algerians and the ones in eastern Mediterranean as successful as the Tripolitanian ones, then I am under the impression the number of slaves could reach 1,75- 2 million slaves over the same time frame (1530-1780) with most slaves taken in 1530-1680.

By the way, @Torbald I forgot to mention a main reason why Venice won't be able to pluck the rebelious ottoman possessions: it is 1577 and a third of Venice's population has just perished due to a bubonic plague epidemic. That was a major catastrophe. So, I guess if a christian power is to snatch any area that has rebelled it would have to be Spain.

 

[Ultima Ratio]

Indeed! The OTL devastation was most pronounced in Italy and the mediterranean islands. To quote from "Christian Slaves, Muslim Masters":

Also I think another effect is not to be underestimated. With Habsburg control of the whole of Hungary, the devastation by the Turkish wars is much less pronounced: the actual frontline in not in the middle of the country but instead in the old frontiers on the south. As a result, Hungary is not depopulated, but Croatia and Serbia are probably more affected in turn. That is also some of the best farmland in Europe, with more taxpaying population, which can have a big effect on Austria.

 

[King of Danes]

Also I think another effect is not to be underestimated. With Habsburg control of the whole of Hungary, the devastation by the Turkish wars is much less pronounced: the actual frontline in not in the middle of the country but instead in the old frontiers on the south. As a result, Hungary is not depopulated, but Croatia and Serbia are probably more affected in turn. That is also some of the best farmland in Europe, with more taxpaying population, which can have a big effect on Austria.

The Habsburgs aren’t in control of Hungary and Bohemia TTL. At least not yet, and with Louis not dying at Mohacs, I feel that they never will. Besides, Hungary is sorta partitioned between Zapolya and Jagiellon control

 

[Ultima Ratio]

The Habsburgs aren’t in control of Hungary and Bohemia TTL. At least not yet, and with Louis not dying at Mohacs, I feel that they never will. Besides, Hungary is sorta partitioned between Zapolya and Jagiellon control

But they are? Philip II von Habsburg is the Kaiser and king of Hungary. He defeated the Turks at the Battle of Lerchenfeld/Rákos outside Buda ITTL.

 

[King of Danes]

But they are? Philip II von Habsburg is the Kaiser and king of Hungary. He defeated the Turks at the Battle of Lerchenfeld/Rákos outside Buda ITTL.

I mean last update has Louis as king
@Torbald What’s the status?

 

[King of Danes]

I mean last update has Louis as king
@Torbald What’s the status?

I've just realized that I've mixed up this TL with the "To Be a Fox and a Lion" TL, which also updated recently! My bad, @Ultima Ratio I honestly can't remember, though, did Charles claim Hungary and Bohemia through his marriage to Anne of Bohemia and Hungary? And did Louis die at Mohacs ttl?

 

[Ultima Ratio]

I've just realized that I've mixed up this TL with the "To Be a Fox and a Lion" TL, which also updated recently! My bad, @Ultima Ratio I honestly can't remember, though, did Charles claim Hungary and Bohemia through his marriage to Anne of Bohemia and Hungary? And did Louis die at Mohacs ttl?

No Mohacs ITTL, I'm not sure about the inheritance, I should re-read it

 

[X Oristos]

leading the capture of Aden in 1520

This is perhaps one of the biggest butterflies of the timeline so far. I am currently reading the "Splendid Exchange: How trade shaped the world". Here are a few quotes that I found pertinent to the timeline:

Even though the Portuguese controlled many of the Indian spice centers and Hormuz, they did not command Aden. Thus, supple Muslim and Hindu mariners could easily bypass the Iberian strongholds and sail up the unguarded Red Sea to Egypt: no Aden, no Portuguese spice monopoly.

Piri Reis, the great Ottoman admiral, was Albuquerque's Muslim counterpart. Unfortunately for the Portuguese, his career lasted far longer; during the decades of his service to the sultan, he ranged over the Red Sea, Indian Ocean, and Persian Gulf, harassing, outwitting, and outflanking his European rivals.

Portugal, hopelessly strapped for manpower, could manage just one dilapidated trading post in the Moluccas. Consequently, only about one-eighth of the cloves unloaded in Europe traveled in Portuguese bottoms. Cinnamon was even harder to monopolize, and pepper proved impossible, since the latter grew not only over the entire length of the Western
Ghats, but in Sumatra as well. Portugal's only realistic chance of stopping Muslim ships, their hulls packed tight with spices, from reaching Egypt, and ultimately Europe, was to blockade the Red Sea.

Even so, only briefly during the first flush of Portuguese expansion immediately after 1500 did the flow of spices to Egypt completely dry up. Otherwise, Venetian merchants found that they could always find spices piled high and offered at fair prices in Cairo and Alexandria— if they could but get there. By the 1560s, Venice had reestablished trade with the Turks. With Bab el Mandeb, the Red Sea, and Egypt itself under the thumb of the Ottoman Empire, and with demand for luxury goods burgeoning in Europe, more pepper may have flowed through Venice than before da Gama opened the Cape route.

Just as the Venetians worried about the Portuguese, the Portuguese fretted about the power of the Islamic trading network. Today, it is difficult to imagine that in the sixteenth century, Portugal's greatest single rival in the Indian Ocean was the western Sumatran city-state of Aceh (...)
In 1546, two Portuguese agents stationed in Venice sent back word that 650,000 pounds of spices—enough to supply Europe for approximately a month and destined for Venice—had landed in Cairo. Much of this cargo came from Aceh, which each year exported west as much as seven million pounds of pepper—approximately equal to the entirety of European consumption. Even if some was bound for the Ottoman Empire, this suggests that Aceh, and thus Venice, may have controlled more of the Indian
Ocean spice trade than Portugal.

All of it is butterflied by the capture of Aden. Moreover, the Iberians have considerably greater military power. If anything I expect the United Iberia's naval might to reduce Aceh and hold Aden and Massawa.

Having a european power control Aden in 1520 instead of 1839, may very well see the earlier discovery of a popular bean. At that time, coffee is being cultivated in Yemen and Aden is full of coffeehouses. That is another source of wealth, more than 150 years before its mass introduction to Europe.

The fall and sack of Ternate left the Portuguese as the virtually unopposed masters of the Moluccas, and initiated a rapid colonization of the archipelago and its surrounding islands: the Tidore and Buton sultanates fell in 1525 and 1536, respectively; north of the Moluccas, trade posts, forts, missions, and ports were established at Menado in 1530, Cebu in 1532, Dumaguete in 1536, Minajouro [2] in 1537, Gorontalo in 1542, and Palauan

The Portuguese have managed to do what the Dutch did in early 17th century: political control of the Moluccas. This gives Spain monopoly of cloves, mace and nutmeg.

Between the control of the Spice Islands and Aden, I think the revenue of the Estado da India will be many times higher than in OTL. Basically the only handicap is corruption.

(...) appointments to high office lasted just three years. Those ambitious, brave, and lucky enough to earn such positions (or rich enough in the first place to buy them) were compelled to make the best of their limited tenure, squeezing local traders, their own troops, and the crown itself in a thirty-six month frenzy of self-dealing.

Just by having a Royal Committee to oversight the high officers and perhaps increase their tenure to 4 or 5 years, will do wonders. After all, it is in the Crown's interests to keep a watch over that great source of wealth so that the King won't be cheated out of his revenue.

Moreover, between Hormuz, Malacca and Bab-el-Mandeb, Spain controls the intra-Asiatic trade. Something even more valuable than the exports to Europe. So, it controls the trade between the Ottoman Empire and Abyssinia with India and China. The trade between China and India, where silk, porcelain and tea is exchanged for cotton textiles and pepper. The trade between East Africa (ivory, gold and slaves) to India, Persia etc.

As I see it, the Spanish right now have greater revenue than the OTL mid-17th century VOC. The VOC never controled Bab-el-Mandeb and it had many competitors. This is source of wealth is tremendous, much greater than the OTL portuguese one.

Another minor thing, is that in contrast to OTL Portugal, United Iberia controls most of the red coral production in the Mediterranean. Red coral was one of the few european products desired by India and China. I think it is a minor item, but it would certainly help the trade balance. Likewise, I believe TTL's Spanish will be able to export spanish dollars cheaper than the OTL Portuguese and the VOC.

Mediterranean red coral: A European merchandise of the first globalization

ehne.fr

Last but not least, the soldiers of the Estado da India may receive better treatment now that there is much more wealth. A steady good pay is doable. If anything, after the soldiers have run out their use, they can be dumped in a certain settler agricultural colony in the Cape. The majority of the soldiers won't become burghers in the tropical ports or merchants, that's for sure. SInce most of them were of rural background, it would cheaper to be deposited in the Cape so that they can produce the food and wine the Estado and its ships need. There, there will be a population boom, as the population can increase with the rapid rate of the OTL Dutch.

Portugal exploited not only Asians but also its own citizens. So miserable was the life of the common soldier that soon after arriving in India, thousands fled the ranks for monasteries. Portuguese recruits often went without shelter and during the monsoon season could be seen begging naked by the roadside. The tens of thousands who died of tropical diseases and malnutrition in the Royal Hospital at Goa may well have been the lucky ones.

 

[Xenophonte]

I'd think that ITTL scenario that aside to secure and/or increases the Portugueses/Iberians holdings in the India that would be very probable that if the Iberians 'do manage to divert/invest enough resources/manpower that Ceylon/Sri Lanka could be incorporated to the Iberian Empire.... And if so, it'd be possible that it might be ruled from Goa, the Portuguese India capital?
Or would be ruled directly from Lisboa, through her own viceroy?
Also, if so, I think that would be probable that the Island could have, ITTL Future, after the Philippines, the largest Catholic populations in Asia.

 

[X Oristos]

I'd think that ITTL scenario that aside to secure and/or increases the Portugueses/Iberians holdings in the India that would be very probable that if the Iberians 'do manage to divert/invest enough resources/manpower that Ceylon/Sri Lanka could be incorporated to the Iberian Empire.... And if so, it'd be possible that it might be ruled from Goa, the Portuguese India capital?

Or would be ruled directly from Lisboa, through her own viceroy?

I checked what info we have so far.

with Pedro Álvares Cabral established as Almeida’s subordinate as the first captain general of Portuguese possessions in Ceylon (Ceilão) in 1517

The OTL Portuguese had incredible luck with Ceylon (literally being bequeathed the kingdom of Kotte by its ruler) and many of the inhabitants proved receptive to Christianity, so the loss of such a rich and geographically advantageous island is just another unfortunate example of misplaced priorities and harmful tactics employed by the Portuguese in the Indian Ocean. The Portuguese have received Kotte ITTL, and Estêvão and Cristóvão da Gama have used Portugal's improved situation in India to lead campaigns against Jaffna, so the island is more of a priority for sure.

Ceylon getting more priority really makes sense. If the Portuguese have more manpower they will try to monopolize cinnamon production and trade. In TTL they have the benefit of Cabral having a better career and not getting malaria. As captain-general of Ceylon he must have been aggressive in expanding portuguese rule.

Frankly, I find it more plausible for Ceylon to be ruled by Goa or wherever the seat of the Estado da India will be in the future. The Indian Ocean is far away from Portugal so that realistically only one viceroyalty can be established-at least for lets say the first three centuries. After all, the trade routes between Bab-el-Manbeb -Hormuz-India- Malacca-Macau-Nagasaki constituted an interlinked commercial world.

 

[Harshavardhana]

Just read the whole thing in one sitting and oh boy was it fun!! I do have the dream that the Spanish are going to incorporate the Turtle Ships, Hwachas and the Red seal ships into their arsenal once trade starts with Korea and Japan.

Also, for some reason I want the Spanish to send some 60-70 galleons to Konstaniyye and fire a bunch of cannonballs at the city, to give the Ottomans a scare . It would be too wanky for sure but I don't know why I dream of it.