Una diferente ‘Plus Ultra’ - the Avís-Trastámara Kings of All Spain and the Indies (Updated 12/27)

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Tursiops Amicus

Torbald said:
OTL Spain had a population around 9 million c. 1500, but TTL's Spain is OTL Spain and OTL Portugal, which had a combined population closer to 11 million. Over the course of the 16th century ITTL, this population has reached almost 15 million by 1600 (a 36% increase).

A little known fact about the first half of the 16th century is that it was actually a period of large population growth in Europe, with France growing from 15 million to 20 million (a 33% increase), Germany growing from 16 million to 20 million (a 25% increase), and England from 2.1 to 4.15 million (a 97% increase!) between the years 1500 and 1600. Keep in mind that all of these increases occurred in spite of the serious social upheavals and violent rebellions happening in each of these countries during this period. With vast quantities of wealth pouring in from overseas and with the Crown rich enough to invest in irrigation projects, hospitals, orphanages, etc., TTL's Spanish population has benefited greatly and has been saved from some of the disasters and deleterious trends that hampered its population growth IOTL. Likewise, the introduction of American crops such as maize and potatoes have transformed Spanish agriculture and have made subsistence farming much less liable to food shortages and crop failures.

The 19th century population is just a speculation, and is mostly still up in the air although it will probably end up being closer to 20 million. The reasoning for this change (a growth of only 33% over two centuries after a 36% growth in the span of a single century) is that the Iberian Peninsula can only support so many people (even with the introduction of American crops and some small technology advances in agriculture), meaning that the large scale population growth is going to plateau at some point and lead to both famines and increased emigration to the Americas, North Africa, South Africa, or (to a lesser extent) to one of the many other colonies in Africa or Asia.

The reason that the Spanish and Portuguese populations IOTL actually decreased when every other nation in Western Europe was experiencing growth was due to a number of different factors. The 1590s saw a devastating resurgence of the plague (alongside other, albeit less destructive, outbreaks throughout the 16th and 17th centuries), coupled with a complete collapse of the Spanish economy at around the same time - not an economic recession or depression but a collapse, the lower classes had to revert to a currency-less barter system while living in the most silver-rich country in the world. Combined with the continuous drain of emigrants leaving for the New World (admittedly not as massive of a drain on the population for Spain as much as for Portugal) and the large number of people entering into celibate religious lives (there were more than 100,000 religious in Spain in the late 16th century), and of course the many conflicts that enveloped the Iberian Peninsula (the 80 Years War, the 30 Years War, the other Franco-Spanish wars of the 18th century, the War of the Spanish Succession, the Napoleonic Wars, and the Carlist Wars, etc etc etc), you have a veritable litany of reasons for OTL population decline in Spain and Portugal that do not really exist (yet) in TTL's Spain.

In regards to the Dutch remaining under Habsburg rule, I agree that they are unlikely to pursue the same level of colonization that they did IOTL at least for the better part of the 16th and 17th centuries. However, the shipping fleets of the Dutch merchants remain just as massive as IOTL and the central position of the Netherlands in relation to European commerce remains, so some interesting things are still going to happen for the Dutch overseas ITTL.
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Thank you. It has been a very instructive explanation. I believed that OTL Spain population in 1500's was much lower, like 6 millions or so.
 
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cjc

Torbald said:
OTL Spain had a population around 9 million c. 1500, but TTL's Spain is OTL Spain and OTL Portugal, which had a combined population closer to 11 million. Over the course of the 16th century ITTL, this population has reached almost 15 million by 1600 (a 36% increase).

A little known fact about the first half of the 16th century is that it was actually a period of large population growth in Europe, with France growing from 15 million to 20 million (a 33% increase), Germany growing from 16 million to 20 million (a 25% increase), and England from 2.1 to 4.15 million (a 97% increase!) between the years 1500 and 1600. Keep in mind that all of these increases occurred in spite of the serious social upheavals and violent rebellions happening in each of these countries during this period. With vast quantities of wealth pouring in from overseas and with the Crown rich enough to invest in irrigation projects, hospitals, orphanages, etc., TTL's Spanish population has benefited greatly and has been saved from some of the disasters and deleterious trends that hampered its population growth IOTL. Likewise, the introduction of American crops such as maize and potatoes have transformed Spanish agriculture and have made subsistence farming much less liable to food shortages and crop failures.

The 19th century population is just a speculation, and is mostly still up in the air although it will probably end up being closer to 20 million. The reasoning for this change (a growth of only 33% over two centuries after a 36% growth in the span of a single century) is that the Iberian Peninsula can only support so many people (even with the introduction of American crops and some small technology advances in agriculture), meaning that the large scale population growth is going to plateau at some point and lead to both famines and increased emigration to the Americas, North Africa, South Africa, or (to a lesser extent) to one of the many other colonies in Africa or Asia.

The reason that the Spanish and Portuguese populations IOTL actually decreased when every other nation in Western Europe was experiencing growth was due to a number of different factors. The 1590s saw a devastating resurgence of the plague (alongside other, albeit less destructive, outbreaks throughout the 16th and 17th centuries), coupled with a complete collapse of the Spanish economy at around the same time - not an economic recession or depression but a collapse, the lower classes had to revert to a currency-less barter system while living in the most silver-rich country in the world. Combined with the continuous drain of emigrants leaving for the New World (admittedly not as massive of a drain on the population for Spain as much as for Portugal) and the large number of people entering into celibate religious lives (there were more than 100,000 religious in Spain in the late 16th century), and of course the many conflicts that enveloped the Iberian Peninsula (the 80 Years War, the 30 Years War, the other Franco-Spanish wars of the 18th century, the War of the Spanish Succession, the Napoleonic Wars, and the Carlist Wars, etc etc etc), you have a veritable litany of reasons for OTL population decline in Spain and Portugal that do not really exist (yet) in TTL's Spain.

In regards to the Dutch remaining under Habsburg rule, I agree that they are unlikely to pursue the same level of colonization that they did IOTL at least for the better part of the 16th and 17th centuries. However, the shipping fleets of the Dutch merchants remain just as massive as IOTL and the central position of the Netherlands in relation to European commerce remains, so some interesting things are still going to happen for the Dutch overseas ITTL.
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Thank you for the great response, do you have any book suggestions on this (both the population decline and the economic collapse) because I have always been fascinated by this but I haven't found any good books in English that go into much depth about this.
Also I knew about the 16th population boom and how Spane did not have it at all I gust dint know why.
 
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Torbald

cjc said:
Thank you for the great response, do you have any book suggestions on this (both the population decline and the economic collapse) because I have always been fascinated by this but I haven't found any good books in English that go into much depth about this.
Also I knew about the 16th population boom and how Spane did not have it at all I gust dint know why.
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I'd say your best choice would be Imperial Spain: 1469-1716 by John Elliott, which is my old standby and is probably the best English-language book on European Spain.
 

Torbald

So while I wrestle with extremely limited free time with which to complete the next update, would anyone like to see a mini-update or graphic/map about a certain area? Maybe a wikibox about something in the distant future? Maybe I should make an independent graphic thread?
 
Xenophonte

Xenophonte

While I prefer the mini-update and not having any objections towards the others options...I would prefer, too, to keep all the contents in this TL...
 

Neko Tamo

Torbald said:
So while I wrestle with extremely limited free time with which to complete the next update, would anyone like to see a mini-update or graphic/map about a certain area? Maybe a wikibox about something in the distant future? Maybe I should make an independent graphic thread?
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Not a fan of spoilers so I dislike the idea of the wikiboxes. Though if they were in another thread where I don't have to look at them then it is fine I suppose.
 

SilentSpaniard

Neko Tamo said:
Not a fan of spoilers so I dislike the idea of the wikiboxes. Though if they were in another thread where I don't have to look at them then it is fine I suppose.
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It could be a wikibox of something that already happened…

I’m in favor of keeping everything in a single thread. All kind of “extras” would be well received!
 

Neko Tamo

SilentSpaniard said:
It could be a wikibox of something that already happened…

I’m in favor of keeping everything in a single thread. All kind of “extras” would be well received!
Click to expand...
Except Torbald wrote explicitly it will be wikiboxes about the far future. Which I guess could be fairly spoiler-free if all they show are things which even now are obvious, like how Spain will be be a much more influential country come our times.
 

Adralfe

I have finally caught up with this story. One of the best I've read about Spain. The chosen point of divergence is one of my favorites and one of the most common in Spain along with the civil war. I don't know if you know " Cuatro siglos de buen gobierno (1885)" by Nilo María Fabra (Four centuries of good government). It is one of the oldest stories of the genre of alternative history and precisely chooses that point of divergence. I could not find an article in English on the subject:

http://www.alt64.org/wiki/index.php?title=Cuatro_siglos_de_buen_gobierno

I look forward to more updates, thank you very much for your work
 

TickTock The Witch's Dead

I wonder if Spain will try to take cities in Libya during the war. They got cities from Morocco to Tunisia after all. Also I wonder if an independent Greek kingdom could be established by the Spanish in order to help destroy the Ottomans.
 
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Tursiops Amicus

Adralfe said:
I have finally caught up with this story. One of the best I've read about Spain. The chosen point of divergence is one of my favorites and one of the most common in Spain along with the civil war. I don't know if you know " Cuatro siglos de buen gobierno (1885)" by Nilo María Fabra (Four centuries of good government). It is one of the oldest stories of the genre of alternative history and precisely chooses that point of divergence. I could not find an article in English on the subject:

http://www.alt64.org/wiki/index.php?title=Cuatro_siglos_de_buen_gobierno

I look forward to more updates, thank you very much for your work
Click to expand...
Thank you. I didn't know that story.
 
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