Hapsburgs stronk. I’m wondering if things stabilize within the HRE that Phillip doesn’t get a chance to meddle in france and carve off more territory.
I wonder how the Holy Roman Empire is going to do with this little victory of theirs. Is it going to solidify a little better?
The Hapsburgs have achieved a decisive victory over their greatest European rival, but it has cost them dearly: 20 years of war has accumulated a gigantic floating debt, exacerbated by the plague that has ripped through the Netherlands (the Hapsburgs' most profitable possession), and without ownership of Spain and its colonies ITTL, the Hapsburgs lack the raw bullion that they used IOTL to finance their endless wars in Europe. Consequently, the house of Hapsburg is teetering on the brink of a serious financial crisis. There's an update that I'm currently fleshing out that will deal with all this, but just know that very large concessions were made at the Diet of Mühlhausen in 1554 in order to maintain the peace, as the Hapsburgs simply can't afford another war in the Empire. There will be solidification later on, however, as the Hapsburg center of gravity remains with the Empire, and such developments - even the bad ones - have a way of cementing the Hapsburg ascendancy.
Poor France. It’s going to be a shitshow there. I could imagine that he Royalists might ally with the Protestants to stop the Sainte-Ligue madmen.
Believe it or not, what I put France through here was actually more or less an act of mercy: compared to OTL, they haven't wasted nearly as much time or resources in Italy, they have a monarch that is intent on tempering the poor relations with Spain and the Hapsburgs, and the religious tensions in the country have come to a head much sooner. The last development is important, as the two sides are much more evenly matched (the Farelards have a disproportionate representation in the military and nobility, after all) and are also both fairly exhausted at the moment and are more willing to make a compromise.
Also, keep in mind that Charles X's mother is Marie de Guise and he also basically owes his coronation to the Sainte-Ligue. The monarchy and the Sainte-Ligue at the moment have virtually the same aims, although the Sainte-Ligue is less radical than its OTL counterpart on account of its closeness to the monarchy. The Arbitres - who are essentially an earlier, less successful version of OTL's Politiques - were the closest we'll be seeing to true blue "royalists" in France for the time being, although their former members haven't been entirely sidelined and many of them continue to operate in very influential positions (such as Michel de l'Hôpital, who is still the Chancellor of France).
Post civil war and subsequent absorption of the Holy League territory into the Burgundian realm...a man can dream
Lotharingia must rise again!
I actually thought about either having the Hapsburgs expand the Franche-Comte as far as Dijon or having a Hapsburg installed as Duke of Burgundy under French vassalage. Interestingly enough OTL's Treaty of Madrid in 1526 surrendered the Duchy of Burgundy to the Hapsburgs, but it was rejected by the Estates of Burgundy and reneged on once Francis I was returned to France.
Very nice update!
I'm somewhat surprised to see the Spanish and Austrians not take more, but the terms are understandable given Charles V's untimely death and the incredible length of the war at nearly 20 years. I suspect Navarre will remain a point of contention between France and Spain especially when it comes to succession and it will be interesting to see how a more Germanic Lorraine and English Calais look going forward. I'm also curious to see how the upcoming religious war impacts France given the inroads the Protestants have made in France thus far, my guess is that it will be extremely bloody regardless of who wins.
Thank you
And that's basically it concerning the peace treaty; by 1560 the Hapsburgs are mostly a paper tiger in terms of being able to continue bullying France, and are currently being sustained by diplomacy and the intimidation factor of Imperial prestige and past victories.
Navarra is interesting in that its future monarchs are going to be Avis-Trastamaras but it will remain (at least legally) outside of the Spanish Union. Navarra's gender-neutral succession laws and the fact that the French royal line has been married into are going to make things contentious indeed.
Calais is difficult to estimate. We know that Henry VIII contemplated re-conquering England's old continental possessions in Normandy and Aquitaine, so I'm not sure whether or not the enlarged Pale of Calais and France's weakened state will tempt the English into going full Hundred Years War once again. A more populous Pale of Calais might also have an impact on England itself, with greater access to Flemish thinkers and manufactures. (It might also become something of a cosmopolitan refuge for Protestants and ideological dissidents fleeing the hammer and anvil of the Hapsburgs in the Netherlands and the Sainte-Ligue in Picardy).
I don't know how much more Germanic Lorraine will be, given that the status quo there has been maintained. Also, France isn't likely to let such a large and rich Francophone territory remain out of French hands forever without at least challenging for it at some point in the future.
