With the Reformation being weaker will the reforms the Catholic Church makes be stronger, weaker, or not happen at all? It could be weaker since it has less of an existential crisis requiring it to reform but many of the OTL reforms were pretty necessary like the new religious orders and cracking down on corruption in the Church. Would the weaker Protestant Reformation also lend itself to some Protestant sects returning to the Catholic Church?
As I'm going to detail in a future update, one of the reasons Protestantism hasn't caught quite as much as it did IOTL is because there are already reforms underway in the Church. Miguel is going to continue his grandparents' policy of clerical reform in Spain, and is also going to push for vernacular bibles (ITTL Cisneros is also going to encourage use of the vernacular in his later years) both as a means of disseminating the Gospel in Spanish society (and thereby prevent individual, errant translations) and as a means of facilitating the evangelization process. Likewise, with powerful Catholic nation states emerging - two of whom now more or less border the Papal States - the Papacy will have less room to push for ultramontanism.
For many of the Protestant sects, the Protestant movement will be more of a temporary estrangement/learning experience which will end with many of them gradually re-entering the Catholic Church or getting very close (similar to High Church Anglicanism or the Old Catholics).
Well it's definitely a pity that the Jesuits are butterflied away...
Not neccessarily; there's still the Protestant Scandinavian countries they could work in. They could also be more closely associated with Charles Borromeo's reforms of priestly education; IOTL a couple of the seminaries that Borromeo founded were
staffed by Jesuits.
Edit: also, with regards to the Catholic Church reforming itself, it has happened without an existential crisis, in the Cluniac/Gregorian Reforms.
Exactly, on both points. What made the Reformation stand out from so many other Church crises was that it effected a major, lasting division in Christianity - in a big way due to its close alignment with widespread social change and agitation. If Protestantism's social affiliation can be spoiled enough by atrocities, strict national or ethnic centrism, or radical political ideologies, it can have a fate much like communism in Eastern Europe: initially immensely popular and also acutely relevant to the social climate, but ultimately de-legitimized in the eyes of most due to many mistakes associated with it.
As for the Jesuits, I imagine their counterpart ITTL will emerge on its own, given both the opening of the wider world to evangelization on an unprecedented scale and also the need for a religious order that is dedicated to a catechization that is not only thorough but also accessible/adaptable (something long overdue).
Looks like some of that oh-so infamous Peruvian silver will be hitting Spain soon. I hope they're more wise in spending their gems and metals here compared to OTL.
Not to mention Malian Gold down the line, the same Gold that inflated the Egyptian economy.
It really helps that Spain is not Habsburg TTL. IOTL the American silver was spent on Charles V's numerous conflicts within the Empire. Without the Imperial entanglement, Miguel's Spain is likelier to spend it on internal improvements.
Also interesting the Conquest of America is similar to OTL. I kinda hope for a more diverse South America though; IOTL it was predominantly Spanish plus Portuguese Brazil.
As in OTL, TTL Spain will be unsure of just what to do with all this bullion at first (at least for the majority of Miguel's reign) besides spending it on military expeditions/maintenance and art/architecture/Church projects. However, TTL Spain is also going to get much more keen much more quickly regarding what effect this glut of gold and silver is having on Spain's economy (especially on its underdeveloped financial sector) and what potential it has to enrich the Spaniard, whether he be nobleman or commoner. Besides the lion's share, which will go to Spain's army and navy, the Avís-Trastámara will probably use it on extensive infrastructural projects (roads, irrigation, and port facilities throughout) - which will enrich the laborer class and speed up the growth of the merchant class - and also probably make an angel investment into the native Spanish banking system (in order to provide it with the size and resources to ensure Spain's gold stays in Spain's coffers - without crashing the market, of course). The rest of this bullion will more than likely end up in Indian/Chinese hands through trade fro silk, spices, etc.
Well of course it had to happen for the Aztecs.
Any differences comparing to OTL for this event?
The primary differences here are that a) the conquest occurred much earlier, b) far more Spaniards were involved (from 2,300 soldiers initially to as many as 4,000 by 1525 ITTL, compared to OTL's 1,400 - which is a generous estimate), and c) the greater number of Spaniards meant the conquests are much more divided (while Cortés still took the biggest slice of the cake and is still the de facto top dog, his effective rule ITTL is essentially restricted to the OTL states of Hidalgo, Puebla, Morelos, Guanajuato, Querétaro, and some of Michoacán), making the establishment of royal authority much easier. As for the Amerindians, the Spanish diseases have hit them slightly earlier than IOTL, so they'll have a little bit more time to recover demographically before modern day. Also, the sudden, huge influx of male Spaniards - coupled with an even more lax policy towards intermarriage ITTL - means that Latin America might have an even larger Mestizo population this time around.
Looks like Spain is doing very well for themselves in the new world.
I wonder if more people from Europe are going to emigrate to the Spanish Americas. It'll definitely change the racial make-up for sure.
The improved situation in Spain ITTL both diplomatically (no Spanish-Portuguese warfare, no Spanish men off dying by the droves in Central Europe, less French incursions, and little to no Barbary raiding) and infrastructurally (renovated cities, and more roads, hospitals, etc.) means that Spain is going to have much greater population growth than in OTL - which in turn means increased migration to the New World. With both a greater labor demand in Spain given all the building projects/educational opportunities/manufacturing expansion, and a minor land rush in Andalucía/North Africa, migration to the New World might actually be lower ITTL during the 16th century - but by the 1600s it's going to increase dramatically.
Polish maybe, but the Lithuanian magnates were vehemently against the Union.
It was the minor Lithuanian nobility, fed up with the domination of the Secret Council, who wanted to join with Poland.
I did not know that. I wonder if the Poles can strengthen their position by confiscating the lands of some Lithuanian magnates after a successful conspiracy/succession war with the Lithuanian minor nobility on their side.
Very nice update as usual. Tell us without the Habsburg inheritance, and the title of hre will we see a united Spain grow apart from otl Europe? Will a united Spain invest heavily in naval domination without the need to involve themselves in.....germany
As Alexandre Dumas once said, "Africa begins at the Pyrenees." Now, despite the obvious chauvinism of this quote, it does somewhat aptly express the removal of Iberia from Europe, especially geopolitically. Without the Hapsburg obligation, Spain can rest easy in its easily defensible land borders and can focus more of its energies on the projection of naval power, which it will invest even more heavily in ITTL. We'll be seeing the beginnings of a "Fortaleza España" strategy very soon.
I, for one, would Like to see Navarre (and Basque Country) as part of France
I don't think a united Iberia would accept France holding land south of the Pyrenees.
Nope, Navarre is getting conqured soon I think
Navarra is as good as Spanish at this point, but the French will definitely try to press their claim there...
Merchants, minor sons of nobles and single peasant males could be qualified.
Interesting idea. There could be some decent revenue to be made by offering extra-nationals the possibility of purchasing their entry into the Spanish Americas and the right to permanent residence there.