Ultra-wanked Russo-Japanese War?

So, working on my 1848 TL recently, I started wondering - what if the Russo-Japanese war of the early 20th century had been... bigger? Say, what if there was an invasion of Hokkaido involved, or if a stronger/more unitary China became an important third party? What if the other great powers, like Britain, France and Germany started taking sides for whatever reason?

And, most importantly - what would be the implications of a Russian victory in the Russo-Japanese war?
 
So, working on my 1848 TL recently, I started wondering - what if the Russo-Japanese war of the early 20th century had been... bigger? Say, what if there was an invasion of Hokkaido involved, or if a stronger/more unitary China became an important third party? What if the other great powers, like Britain, France and Germany started taking sides for whatever reason?

And, most importantly - what would be the implications of a Russian victory in the Russo-Japanese war?

Britain nearly got involved with a USS Liberty style attack on a British ship by the Rusian navy.Britain didnt do anything due to Russia being a strategic ally but you could make it so that they could enter the war.
 
So, working on my 1848 TL recently, I started wondering - what if the Russo-Japanese war of the early 20th century had been... bigger? Say, what if there was an invasion of Hokkaido involved, or if a stronger/more unitary China became an important third party? What if the other great powers, like Britain, France and Germany started taking sides for whatever reason?

And, most importantly - what would be the implications of a Russian victory in the Russo-Japanese war?

It could potentialy criple Russia, as the war lead to major reforms without which WW1 would have been lost much quicker, and a potentialy even more angry population
 
or if a stronger/more unitary China became an important third party? What if the other great powers, like Britain, France and Germany started taking sides for whatever reason?

Not likely at this point, but perhaps some kind of event or strategy that forces the other powers hands. It's extremely unlikely, but maybe greater Japanese success on land causes the leadership to make some type of land grab in Siberia or attempting to take Vladivostok and it's region. The Russian government and population began to boil forcing the French to take emergency action for her ally. French fiancial and material aid began flowing into the country along with some moral incouragement by entering the war. Britains friendship with Japan is understood but desperate times call for desperate measures. French diplomatic pressure and some behind the scenes diplomacy allows for French naval forces to join Russia's Black sea squadren. They find, battle, and finally defeat Japanese naval forces. The War reverses and Japan finds herself in dire straights on land and sea. Perhaps eventually even possibly your mentioned 'invasion of Hokkaido'. The British (public opinion demands it) can no longer sit on the sidelines and begin to put pressure on the powers to end the war. The Czar needs a dominate victory and is determined to win a great victory (public opinion) on Japanese territory and remove the Japanese threat. Subtle efforts by the French to restrain the Bear go unheeded. Britain demands pre-war borders and supports Japanese claims in Korea over a Russian(French) dominated landscape. British warships begin steaming to the area. Meanwhile Germany debates her possible options.

And, most importantly - what would be the implications of a Russian victory in the Russo-Japanese war?

Well, the important factor really how does it effect the relationships of the Great Powers. Does this change how the UK sees it's relationship with Russia (and thus France). Does this create a more bold or cocky Russia attitude in world affairs (Balkans and China specifically). Could Russia embark on some type of Chinese colonial adventure to distract the public from demestic problems? Does Japan simply latch onto Britain for support or resent the UK for possibly lack of assistance and/or being Russia's ally via France? Does she look elsewhere? Germany perhaps? Germany could see this as just an earlier sign that the ring or bubble around them has or will eclipse them in military strength.
 

Onyx

Banned
I always thought that the Russo-Jap war would've been bigger if the France helps Russia and the UK helps Japan, afterall British-Francophile relations started to improve after the war.
Wouldn't the US start to get worried about Russia invading Japan? The US did trade with the Japanese and gave them the supplies for a being a power.

If there was a Steampunk Russo-Japanese War version..... That would be so badass. Russian Armored Horse Mechs fighting Robotic Samurais with Miniguns.
 
I always thought that the Russo-Jap war would've been bigger if the France helps Russia and the UK helps Japan, afterall British-Francophile relations started to improve after the war.
Wouldn't the US start to get worried about Russia invading Japan? The US did trade with the Japanese and gave them the supplies for a being a power.

Anglo-French relations were improving from about 1901. Historically, Paris and London did their best to keep themselves from being involved. They have begun to align themselves against Berlin.
 
So, working on my 1848 TL recently, I started wondering - what if the Russo-Japanese war of the early 20th century had been... bigger? Say, what if there was an invasion of Hokkaido involved,

Well, given that Japan controlled the seas...

or if a stronger/more unitary China became an important third party?

But the butterflies!

Hmm. That could be my catchphrase.

What if the other great powers, like Britain, France and Germany started taking sides for whatever reason?

People have pointed out that there was some major Anglo-Russian tension going on, but it's in everybody's interest except Russia's to keep the war small. The Japanese can basically get what they want at minimal risk mano-a-mano. As they did. The British don't want to alienate France, or indeed Russia, as German power was beginning to loom. In fact, the Anglo-Japanese alliance was no to much an alliance as a guarantee: "I, Britain, endorse the right of Japan to go to war with European powers if they do it one-on-one in a civilised and dignified fashion." This was Japan's idea when they signed and they didn't actually want Britain to get involved, although if they do worse (which is very possible) they'll want us to mediate.

And, most importantly - what would be the implications of a Russian victory in the Russo-Japanese war?

Interesting times. I suggest you check out "AH Challenge: Fascist Russia".

Not that this is the only outcome, of course. Nothing is inevitable. But it's a fun one, unless you happen to be one of ATL Russia's victims.
 
Britain nearly got involved with a USS Liberty style attack on a British ship by the Rusian navy.Britain didnt do anything due to Russia being a strategic ally but you could make it so that they could enter the war.


Red,

Oh. My. God. Is that what you believe happened? And you're British too.

A USS Liberty type attack? You believe that when the panicked, incompetents making up most of the crews aboard the Rozhdestvenski's 2nd Pacific Squadron thought they saw Japanese torpedo boats 20,000 nm away from Japan and opened fire on the Hull fishing fleet as they steamed across Dogger Bank at night it was just the same as a daylight Israeli fighter-bomber and torpedo boat attack on an already identified US naval ELINT vessel 25 nm north of the Sinai? Really?

Or that the Anglo-Russian Entente, which was signed in 1907, somehow lessened tensions after the fishing vessels were fired on in 1904?

Getting back to the OP's question; The Russo-Japanese War is one of the few modern wars in which personalities loom large. It was a very near run thing for Japan, she was essentially bankrupt by 1905 and Russia knew it. Japan may have one the war but, thanks to Witte, Russia won the peace negotiations. Japan got little but territorial concessions and her people rioted when they heard the terms.

Keeping the Russian Admiral Makaroff alive would have very serious consequences for the Japanese. He was far more active the cabal of boobs commanding Port Arthur. He would have made life miserable for both Togo and the Japanese fleet and Nogi and the Japanese 3rd Army besieging the port.

Togo had already lost two battleships to mines, something the Japanese were able to hide during the war, and his control of the seas an thus control of Japan's supply lines depended more on bluff and Russian inaction than anything else. A Makaroff who actively sortied from Port Arthur and who was going to be reinforced from Europe was the last thing Togo needed.

Nogi was an interesting personality too. In some ways he foreshadows the various incompetents that would appear on WW1's Western Front. He knew just enough to get his job leading the 3rd Army and far too little to actually lead it effectively. Oyama attempted to have Nogi removed several times during the course of the war, but Nogi was a favorite at Court and he remained in a command he was ill suited for.

He took Port Arthur mainly because the Russian commanders were more incompetent than he and he rang up a huge butcher's bill in doing so. Even his greatest triumph, taking 203 Meter Hill from which the shelling of the harbor could be observed, was more due to Russian failings than Japanese operations. Nogi's impact on the war wasn't only in with wasting the lives of the 3rd Army, however.

Oyama's preemptive strike against Kuropatkin's own planned offensive at Mukden, which was the last significant land battle of the war, depended greatly on a wide flanking movement by the Nogi's 3rd Army to the west. If Nogi had still been in front of a competently defended Port Arthur; in the OTL the port was surrendered on 2 Jan 1905 and the Mukden battle began on 27 Feb 1905, Oyama would not have had the troops in hand to even attempt his preemptive strike.

Without that preemptive strike, Kuropatkin's own offensive would have occurred and it may have given Russia her first victory on land of the war to date. A victory would have somewhat damped down revolutionary mutterings in European Russia, kept Russia in the war longer despite the loss of Rozhdestvenski's 2nd Pacific Squadron, and bankrupted Japan. Japan would have been even more eager for a peace conference than in the OTL and would have left such a conference with far less than in the OTL.


Bill
 
According to Wikipedia...

The Domination series by S.M. Stirling has an alternate Battle of Tsushima where the Japanese use airships to attack the Russian Fleet. This is detailed in the short story "Written by the Wind" by Roland J. Green in the Drakas! anthology.

How ASBish is that?

Is it very implausible that the Russians would have balloons on their ships? They could use the balloons to see the Japanese ships before the Japanese see them.

Another POD for this period I thought of is the revolution of 1905 is such a strain on Nicholas that he abdicates and his brother Michael becomes czar. Or alternatively, Nicholas trips and falls, or has a heart attack.

Thanks.
 
Another POD for this period I thought of is the revolution of 1905 is such a strain on Nicholas that he abdicates and his brother Michael becomes czar. Or alternatively, Nicholas trips and falls, or has a heart attack.

Thanks.

Yeah, Nicholas abdicating in 1905 is the only way the Romanovs could survive. From then on there was no way back. It would have been the more natural course of things when he would.
 
Is it very implausible that the Russians would have balloons on their ships? They could use the balloons to see the Japanese ships before the Japanese see them.

And the Japanese would see the balloons :D It would however ruin a surprise attack.

If one investigates Japan from the Meiji era to the end of WW2, one notices that there are many inefficiencies due to politics and corruption in general, and in the military in particular, at least compared to western countries. Nogi in command of the third is only one such example.

It would be interesting to see how the 20th century would have unfolded with a more 'efficient' Japanese administration. Perhaps a technocratic one like the post-war government?

EDIT: Perhaps a loss of the Russo-Japanese war would facilitate these changes?
 
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Thanks.
The balloons could be sky-blue, making them less easily visible...unless it's cloudy...then they'd use whitish balloons...
 
As Bill pointed out, the Japanese advance was very costly. Despite the apparent curb-stomp, the Japanese army was being bled white by the constant swarm assaults and, had the war lasted another year, the tide of Russian numerical superiority would have turned the war 180. The Russians would eventually push the Japanese out of Manchuria and may not have felt like stopping at the Yalu. Now it's a "Wolf vs. Whale" scenario. Japan is fleeing the peninsula in rout, but the Russians in no way are able to avenge the naval debacle.

POD: TR's attempt at negotiating a peace falls through, as it nearly did OTL thanks to Russian intransigence and Japanese demands for land and reparations (unacceptable to the Czar).

Now, the "ultra-wank" scenario here is: do the other great powers just sit back and let Russia totally dominate Manchuria and Korea? "Open Door" China's being made a myth. German, British, and even French and US positions in China are threatened. This fundamentally alters the BOP in the region. It also means a revanchist Japan, Russian Korea now a dagger aimed at the Emperor's heart (however ASB a Russian amphibious invasion is at this point). Japan may fall to the Ultra-nationalists earlier.
 
I guess what we need here is a Russian victory in the Battle of the Yellow Sea which is quite plausible and even likely had it not been for a lucky shot maybe the Russians lose the Poltava but successfully reach Vladivostok. If the 2nd Pacific Squadron had taking a longer route(around Japan)they could have eluded Togo and combined with the 1st Pacific Squadron. Assuming the loss of Poltava this would give the Russians 9 battleships to 4 Japanese. Such a turn of events may get the Russians to continue the conflict.
 
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