Ukraine fights back in Crimea?

kspence92

Obviously post Maidan Ukraine was in no fit state to fight a war with Russia, but even though it's clear they would lose, what would have happened if the Ukrainian garrisons besieged by Putins "green men" fought back when stormed? Or if Ukrainian soldiers advanced from the mainland and into Crimea?

At that point Putin was still denying it was Russian soldiers involved, so if he had to call off the operation he could still save face.

As far as I remember, there was only one active firefight between Russian and Ukrainian military personnel during the Crimean operation and that saw one killed on each side.
 

ObssesedNuker

Ukraine gets it's ass kicked. A handful of Russian BTGs backed up by a mish-mash of irregulars were enough to basically throw somewhere around 30,000 Ukrainian troops into a total rout last September. That is a damning indictment of the Ukrainian Army's competence...
 

RousseauX

Donor
ObssesedNuker said:
Ukraine gets it's ass kicked. A handful of Russian BTGs backed up by a mish-mash of irregulars were enough to basically throw somewhere around 30,000 Ukrainian troops into a total rout last September. That is a damning indictment of the Ukrainian Army's competence...
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Except there is no land route into Crimea

If Ukrainian army is organized enough o secure the airport, how is Russia even going to send in troops?
 

RousseauX

Donor
ThatOneGuy said:
Paratroopers to storm the airport or Marines to secure the port
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Except the Ukrainians havn't done all that badly against infantry forces, it's heavy armor that they are having issue with since they have no ATGMs to counter reactive armor tanks.

I don't think Russia would try a seaborne assault, but an airborne assault would be way easier to stop then a motor rifle brigade entering via land.
 

ObssesedNuker

RousseauX said:
Except there is no land route into Crimea

If Ukrainian army is organized enough to secure the airport, how is Russia even going to send in troops?
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Re-read the OP: this occurs after the Russians have already arrived and secured most of the peninsula. The airport, like most of the civilian installations, are already in their hands. And even if it wasn't, the Russian's Black Sea Fleet Base and its garrison of several thousand Russian naval troops, with attendant gear that includes stuff like artillery and armored fighting vehicles (not to mention the Black Sea Fleet itself), are literally right there...
 

RousseauX

Donor
ObssesedNuker said:
Re-read the OP: this occurs after the Russians have already arrived and secured most of the peninsula. The airport, like most of the civilian installations, is already in their hands.
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Ok, yeah that makes a lot more sense.

Same deal basically, without an armored force backing them up, the Russians lose. Because they were losing in the Donbass with Spetsnaz+irregulars+limited support until Putin escalated and introduced armored forces into the region.
 

ObssesedNuker

RousseauX said:
Same deal basically, without an armored force backing them up, the Russians lose. Because they were losing in the Donbass with Spetsnaz+irregulars+limited support until Putin escalated and introduced armored forces into the region.
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The Russians had notable quantities of artillery and armored vehicles, including main battle tanks, with them. I'm not sure where you got the idea that they did not. They would also, unlike the separatists, be able to call upon overt Russian air and naval support.
 

RousseauX

Donor
ObssesedNuker said:
The Russians had notable quantities of artillery and armored vehicles, including main battle tanks, with them. I'm not sure where you got the idea that they did not. They would also, unlike the separatists, be able to call upon overt Russian air and naval support.
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The problem is getting them there.

I guess they could airlift them in, or alternatively seaborne them in. But it would be a lot more complicated than just driving them through border crossings, and also Ukrainian anti-air defense might be able to shoot them down. In either case they get much easier to interdict.

And so far, Russia has notably decided not to use air units in the war because there's no way of denying that they are flying from Russia.
 

Orville_third

Banned
Since most if not all of Russia's troops were already in Sevastopol, it means they'd certainly not take long to get there. Does Sevastopol have any airports?
 

Bakenellan

There is a small possibility, that if the resistance is not put out very quickly and there is a strong and immediate reaction from the West, Putin may back down - "polite men" politely disappear and Crimea left to fend out by themselves.
A very dangerous situation as there is almost inevitable attack later by Ukrainian forces on Russian Black Sea Fleet or provocation of one.
 
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The Cosmonaut Cat

Banned
kspence92 said:
Obviously post Maidan Ukraine was in no fit state to fight a war with Russia, but even though it's clear they would lose, what would have happened if the Ukrainian garrisons besieged by Putins "green men" fought back when stormed?
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IIRC, north of half of the Ukrainian troops stationed in Crimea before the anexation stayed there and signed on with the Russian armed forces. That should tell you something about their fighting spirit.

BTW, it is exactly why in US national guard units don't serve in their home state and why the PRC brought in none-local troops to crush the Tianamin Protestors.
kspence92 said:
Or if Ukrainian soldiers advanced from the mainland and into Crimea?
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Roadblocks on roads to the mainland was one of the 1st things the Crimean militants set up.

Also, given the poor readiness of Ukrainian military even if the government decided to invade Crimea I doubt they'd mobilize fast enough before Russian forces dig in.
kspence92 said:
At that point Putin was still denying it was Russian soldiers involved, so if he had to call off the operation he could still save face.
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IIRC, Putin admited to Russian soldiers being there only after the annexation.
 

Deleted member 14881

Could Putin use this as an excuse to invade Eastern and Southern Ukraine because now Ukraine is killing the Innocent Crimeans TM.
 

Tuhachevskey

kspence92 said:
Obviously post Maidan Ukraine was in no fit state to fight a war with Russia, but even though it's clear they would lose, what would have happened if the Ukrainian garrisons besieged by Putins "green men" fought back when stormed? Or if Ukrainian soldiers advanced from the mainland and into Crimea?

At that point Putin was still denying it was Russian soldiers involved, so if he had to call off the operation he could still save face.

As far as I remember, there was only one active firefight between Russian and Ukrainian military personnel during the Crimean operation and that saw one killed on each side.
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In RH near 2500 of local Ukrainian armed force members has left Crimea after the reunification, and near 16 000 deserted and joined russian armed forces. So I don't see any reasons for this numbers to be changed - a majority would surrender, a minority would try to fight at first and than - surrender as well.
 

Tuhachevskey

But.. What about AH-Yanukovich, who gained testicles after fleeing Kiev? He could go to Crimea, take control of a local garrison and barricaded the peninsula. How the things would go on?;)
 

Crowbar Six

US Nat Guard units serve in their own states, they are actually assets of that state and can be called out by the state governor if necessary such as during a natural disaster. Guard units can be federalised by the President for military duty outside the US.
 

abc123

Banned
Tuhachevskey said:
But.. What about AH-Yanukovich, who gained testicles after fleeing Kiev? He could go to Crimea, take control of a local garrison and barricaded the peninsula. How the things would go on?;)
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That could/should be interesting strategy of Russia/Yanukovich...

And he could even invite Russian forces to help him, that would be semi-legal and it could give some clout of legality to Russia...

Or to go to Doneck/Luhansk...
 
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