Ukraine as great power by 1913

Ukraine have lot of assets to become great power. in 1913 population of 31 million and 90 % iron ore production of Russian empire and 80 % of coal production in Russian empire and two third of Russian empire export. 75 % of grain export of Russian empire. if Ukraine stay independent in 19 century can it become great power ?
 
What is your POD? The closest Ukraine came to independence before 1917 was in 1648-59, when the Cossacks ruled half of Ukraine, but even then, southern and eastern parts of the country (where most of our coal and half of our farmland are) were controlled by the Ottomans (including their Crimean Tatar vassals) and Russians.

Even if the victorious Cossacks/some other independence movement manage to take at some point and then hold until 1913 all the land that is now known as Ukraine, and economic development proceeds as OTL, Ukraine of 1913 was a rather poor country (even if it was richer on a per capita basis than most ethnic Russian provinces), with its total GDP being somewhat larger than that of Spain, but smaller than that of Japan (and much smaller than that of Italy, famously the weakest of European great powers). Of course, Japan managed to become a great power of sorts by 1905 despite having a relatively small and backward economy. Still, to become a true great power by 1913 (and to do so in Europe, where density of great powers was the world's highest, unlike in the Far East), Ukraine would have to get a much larger economy, which probably means an earlier industrial revolution, starting at some point in the early 19th century.

So, the answer to your question is "probably, it can, but it would be a very different Ukraine."
 
Ukraine wasn't actually a country in 1913 - it was divided between Austria-Hungary (as Galicia and Lodomeria) and the Russian Empire, and Russia wasn't about to let it go. Galicia-Lodomeria might have had more of a chance, though you still have to overcome Galician poverty, namely the region being the poorest area in Europe. You could posit an independent Galicia-Volhynia coming out of a total breakup of Austria in the Springtime of the Peoples back in 1848, leading to an independent Galicia-Lodomeria, but you still get a country that is small, landlocked, mostly in the Carpathians, controlled by foreign powers since the 1340s and deeply divided between Poles and Ruthenians.

You'd have to have a very early POD to have any chance at an independent Ukraine, much less one that is capable of acting as a great power. If you go back before the 19th century you might not even get a country called Ukraine - you'd get something like a Grand Duchy of Ruthenia, or even some sort of independent Zaporizhian Sich that manages, somehow, to survive. Even then, you've got the Crimean Khanate controlling your sea access.

If you want to go really far back, have Halych-Volhynia reunify at least part of Rus' in the Middle Ages in a lasting way, but that mostly just gives you a Galicia wank.
 
I wonder what would have happened had the Russian Empire completely defeated the Ottomans at some earlier point, seized Constantinople, the Pontus and so on...and then somehow broke apart anyway, with Ukraine as one of its successors. To make things easier, these new regions might have been heavily settled by people from Ukraine (among others), like the Far East was. Constantinople and Trebizond in Ukraine, and the Black Sea as a Ukrainian lake? Not so likely, and not enough to be a true global power, but still something to be reckoned with.
 
With a complete collapse of the Russian empire you might see a Ukrainian state (capital at Kiev, dominated by ethnic Ukrainians) that stretches a bit further north and west and considerably further east. I understand the area around and even a bit past the Don used to have a considerable Ukrainian population. If Ukraine had control of the mouths of the Danube and Don, and the fuel resources of the Caucasus, it might be considered the weakest great power.
 
The fundamental weaknesses of the area largely revolved around the stagnation of Rzechpospolita/PL Commonwealth and Russia, in which reactionary forces had the upper hand over revolutionary/modernist/creative forces-something big would have to happen to change Eastern Europe into a creative force capable of being a great power.

I'd say there are a wealth of opportunities for a "Ukrainian" state to emerge/hold on pre-Poltava but all of those would likely resemble the chaotic Rzechpospolita, autocratic Russia or the dreamy steppes of the Cossacks-not great-power material

The closest I can think of is if Napoleon's invasion of Russia (Somehow) succeeds and he carves out a Ukrainian state a-la Duchy of Warsaw, Better place to live than under Russia-Yes, a different 1904 snowballing might-just might see independent states around-but honestly, short of a time-travelling Ukrainian patriot and a whole load of luck-Can't see Ukraine as a Great Power by 1913

(For the reference I am of Galician-Ukrainian descent)
 
As the others says, you need to specify a point of departure (POD). For Ukraine to become a great power, it would have to be the dominant East Slavic state, and then it would probably simply be named Russia. After all, the original Russian state (Rus) had Kiev at its capital.
 
One of the Cossack uprisings, the Khmelnytsky Uprising being a decent candidate, sees Ruthenia being raised to co-equal status as the Grand Duchy of Ruthenia as part of the Polish-Lithuanian-Ruthenian Commonwealth. That at least gets them a recognised distinct identity, from there they can expand into the Crimean Khanate and possible even Russia if the opportunity presented itself. How you then make the jump to Great Power I have no idea though.
 

TFSmith121

Banned
Ukraine have lot of assets to become great power. in 1913 population of 31 million and 90 % iron ore production of Russian empire and 80 % of coal production in Russian empire and two third of Russian empire export. 75 % of grain export of Russian empire. if Ukraine stay independent in 19 century can it become great power ?

Interestingly enough, modern Ukrainian nationalism was beginning to become a movement in the early to mid-Nineteenth Century, however limited; IF (and it's a huge IF) the French and British are on the ball, they might be able to use their control of the Black Sea in 1854-55 to help support a nationalist rising. This would cause problems with their de facto allies the Austrians, however, because of the obvious knock-on issues with the national minorities in the Austrian Empire, the Hungarians and Poles especially...

However, if the above occurs and there is a substantial rising, the Russians presumably evacuate Sevastopol on time or earlier than historically ... And IF (another big IF) the French "adopt" the resulting Ukrainian nationalists, an independent Ukrainian state exists "early" enough before the 1913 date they may be able to develop and create some stability.

It's a real stretch, but gets at least the foundational need for an independent state in place early enough that they might have five decades or so of stable development and national consolidation.

Best,
 
Seems more like it would be secondary power. Ukraine (either in its modern borders or in a "greater Ukraine") would have difficulties projecting power because its only seacoast is the Black Sea. It could probably be on the tier of Czechoslovakia and interwar Poland (if not slightly stronger), but not in "great power tier".
 

Spengler

Banned
Ukraine have lot of assets to become great power. in 1913 population of 31 million and 90 % iron ore production of Russian empire and 80 % of coal production in Russian empire and two third of Russian empire export. 75 % of grain export of Russian empire. if Ukraine stay independent in 19 century can it become great power ?
Well frankly it wouldn't exist as most of their history they have considered themselves Russians. ALbeit Russians who happen to generally give more respect to Rome then Moscow when it comes to their religion. Maybe you mean have a Russia where Kiev remains the center of power, now Moscow or the Window to the West.
 
Well frankly it wouldn't exist as most of their history they have considered themselves Russians. ALbeit Russians who happen to generally give more respect to Rome then Moscow when it comes to their religion. Maybe you mean have a Russia where Kiev remains the center of power, now Moscow or the Window to the West.
That depends on where in Ukraine you are. After a certain point, western Ukrainians have more in common with Poles than they do with Russians - which is part of the problem with having Ruthenia as a great power.
 
Well frankly it wouldn't exist as most of their history they have considered themselves Russians.
To complicate it even more "the Russians" did not consider themselves "Russians" till Peter the Great approximately or even later.
The word "Russians" was not used, instead the word "Christians" was used (meaning definitely "proper" Orthodox Christians).
So the main self-identity feature was the "proper Orthodox Christianity" - that was the line dividing "us and them".
Even in the XIX-th century some of the "Ukranian" writers truly considered the Russians/Ukranians/Belorussians as a whole; and that's why they are under suspicion in the modern Ukraine.
But that was not a "treachery of Ukraine" - it was like they saw the "Russians" to be "Ukranian" enough and vice versa, that was a good old big East Slavic Orthodox self-identity, call it whatever you want.


for the record :) :
my father's father was an ethnic Ukrainian, and though he had been killed in action during WWII before my father was born, my family remembers that.
My mother is a pure full-blooded Belorussian (as they are made), but as a child she lived in the Ukraine for ten years and beautifully sings Ukrainian songs since then.
So, please, no Russian nationalism here...
 
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