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I'm having a blast reading The World on Fire, about US - UK relations during the American Civil War--
http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/03...mp=1789&creative=9325&creativeASIN=037550494X

I've read quite a lot here about what would happen if Anglo-American war broke out over the Trent Incident, or if Britain tried to mediate after a CSA victory at Antietam.

But if the World on Fire is to be believed, there were actually several opportunities for an Anglo-American war in late 1864 or early 1865.

The World on Fire reports that (1) the (northern) American public was strongly anglophobic throughout the ACW, with connivance and cynical stoking by Union politicians; (2) after the October 1864 St. Albans' raid, the local Union commander decided to ignore Canadian borders in pursuit of the raiders, (3) Lord Lyons, the British Ambassador to the US, was panicked: he was convinced that if Union troops captured the raiders on Union soil, the UK would have to issue an ultimatum for their return, the US would have to refuse, given the state of public opinion, and war would result. Fortunately, the Canadians rounded up all of the raiders except one. The one was captured by Union troops but in the presence of a large mob, and after a tense standoff the Union soldiers agreed to turn their captive over to the Canadian authorities. Crisis averted. The World on Fire refers to several other abortive Confederate raids and attempts in November and December of 1864 that could have led to war in the same way.

So, suppose that Union troops manage to capture the St. Albans raiders and bring them back to the US? Or suppose one of the other attempts in November or December succeed and lead to a significant US violation of Canadian rights (e.g., CSA operatives manage to arm a steamer on one of the Great Lakes, and Union forces cross into Canada to sieze it at a Canadian anchorage)?

Would war ensue? I'm guessing that both the UK and the US elites would try very, very hard to avoid it and to find a way to finesse the issue. But I think its fairly possible.

So what would happen if war breaks out? Assume a 6-week to 2-month lag between the actual incident and the outbreak of war, you're looking at a UK-US war breaking out in the December 1864 - February 1865 time frame. What happens? Is it a halfhearted embarrassing farce by both sides, or does it get serious?

PS. Here's my other World on Fire POD:
https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=208654
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