UK politics without WWI: Home Rule, etc.

If WWI is narrowly averted, then what happens politically? Would Home Rule go through third reading in the Lords, or be rejected? Also, who wins an election held in late '14 or early '15? Something tells me the conditions for Lab eventually usurping the Liberals are still there, but will take a bit longer or be less dramatic than OTL.
 
With the economic recession which was due to hit by late 1914, the Conservatives probably win, with modest Labour gains. Whether or not the Labour party manages to replace the Liberals is quite largely reliant on whether another incident kicks off war in the future with similar conditions, otherwise there ascent is going to be much more gradual. Maybe the two combine?
 
I replied to a similar thread in the past with this:

I see no reason why the Tories would win in 1915. Although the Liberal Party's support in by-elections between 1910 and 1914 was declining as a consequence of the breakdown of the Liberal-Labour alliance at a grass-roots level, Labour found it impossible to erode Liberal working class support by taking seats from them. Ramsay MacDonald was pessimistic at the time. Before the First World War the Conservative Party was still tearing itself apart over Protectionism. The Liberals' Land Campaign and the passivity of the Conservative response alienated many farmers from the Tories. Moreover, the Liberals actually won at least a dozen seats in 1910 by mobilising the Catholic vote on the mainland over Home Rule.

I would also add that I don't think Labour would usurp the Liberals' position in the long run as the classic Dangerfield analysis seems to imply. The Liberals declined because of the Lloyd George/Asquith spilt and the radicalising effect of the war.
 
Now what happens with Home Rule? Civil war or limited military action before a settlement is reached?

Also, forgot to include that 42 Irish MPs will still sit at Westminster, so either the IPP survives or the parties' Ulster wings further extend themselves.
 
Home Rule would pass; the Lords could only delay at that point.
Making it work was not going to be as easy as all that. The Unionists were arming themselves.
 

Thande

Donor
Home Rule would go through, provoking Ulster to go bonkers and an Irish uprising/civil war that is much less bloody than OTL's but would seem shocking to people from a TL without the Great War. Probably the Great British public's opinion of Ulster Protestants would take a nosedive and the Tories would draw a line under the whole affair to avoid being associated with them.
 

Falkenburg

Monthly Donor
Assuming no Great War, Home Rule is implemented with the Irish Volunteers forming the core of the Military.

The Northern Unionists attempt a 'July Rising', seizing Belfast City Hall, and several other sites in the City (Customs House, Anderson & McCauley Building, etc), in the expectation of 'Mainland' support.

When push comes to shove, however, what sympathy there was evaporates in the face of such a 'Knife in the back'.

'Irish' forces, with probable Royal Navy support move in and mercilessly crush the 'Rebels', causing significant damage to the City Centre.

In the absence of a Great War, political leadership is a little more far-sighted and few (if any) of the captured 'Rebels' are executed for their act of Treason.

Long prison sentences (Perhaps somewhere in Wales?) are the order of the day and an uneasy peace settles over the new State.

Chastened by the experience, Unionist Politicians focus on playing Kingmaker in the new Parliament. Their position greatly strengthened by the industrial dominance of their Heartlands.

Falkenburg
 
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