UK offer to Ireland 1940

[sparky42]

This is a bit of just a thought process, but I am interested in peoples opinions.
In OTL there were discussions between London and Dublin in regards to Ireland joining the war, or at the very least letting the Treaty Ports be used, in return the British Government was offering to support the principle of a United Ireland:

A declaration to be issued by the United Kingdom government forthwith accepting the principle of a United Ireland.
A joint body including representatives of the government of Éire and the government of Northern Ireland to be set up at once to work out the constitutional and other practical details of the Union of Ireland. The United Kingdom government to give such assistance towards the work of this body as might be desired.
A joint defence council of representatives of Éire and Northern Ireland to be set up immediately.
Éire to enter the war on the side of the United Kingdom and her allies forthwith, and, for the purposes of the Defence of Éire, the government of Éire to invite British naval vessels to have use of ports in Éire and British troops and aeroplanes to co-operate with the Éire forces and to be stationed in such positions in Éire as may be agreed between the two governments.
The government of Éire to intern all German and Italian aliens in the country and to take any further steps necessary to suppress fifth column activities.
The United Kingdom to provide military equipment at once to the government of Éire.

The British Offer to End Partition, June 1940

most intriguing episodes in the history is the British proposal in June 1940 to end partition in return for Ireland’s participation in war against Germany.

www.historyireland.com

Britain offered unity if Ireland entered war

New documentary evidence detailing a British plan to guarantee a united Ireland if the government agreed to enter the second …

www.irishtimes.com

Now for various reasons (some right, others not) the Cabinet turned it down, and realistically it seems doubtful London had thought things through given the predictable Unionist response to just the suggestion of the offer.

But for the purposes of this thread (again just kind of thinking things through), I'd like opinions of what impacts if the offer had been accepted?

At the same period of this offer the RAF had drawn up plans for a deployment into Ireland with the suggested strength of 5-7 Squadrons, two Battle Squadrons and the rest Hurricanes. Given the virtual nonexistence of the Irish Air Corps, this strength would have had to come from the UK squadrons, so how would that have affected the Battle of Britain with perhaps up 5 squadrons of Hurricanes not being available? The same study planned to set up a new Radar chain in Ireland as well, would that have had an impact on the trained crews of Chain Home, having to stand up new stations over a period?

For the RN, while they would have had the Treaty Ports back, both Lough Swilly and Berehaven hadn't had improvements that Cobh had and were areas that were heavily Republican, while on the other hand Cobh had lost pretty much all the labour force that supported the RN during WW1, and critical dock infrastructure had by this stage already been disabled leaving Cobh basically a marshaling area and not much else. Post Fall of France would there be enough spare hardware like AA guns to defend the Harbour if it was being used heavily?

Meanwhile of course NI is likely to have reacted as NI does to such an offer from London, even though London had admitted it wouldn't force NI into a Union with Ireland, could you see an impact from the major war companies of H&W and Shorts? Given they tended to lean Unionist/Loyalist could you see anything from "Go Slows" to active Strikes, impacting everything up to Fleet Carriers?

If this had happened, has the UK actually created more short to medium problems and burdens for itself instead of benefits?

 

[Nephi]

They got bombed anyway. I think the Irish were still feeling rather distrustful.

Hmmm this seems like you'll say that and maybe we might get a county or two but you won't be handing over Belfast.

 

[jsb]

Cant say much about the politics,

At the same period of this offer the RAF had drawn up plans for a deployment into Ireland with the suggested strength of 5-7 Squadrons, two Battle Squadrons and the rest Hurricanes. Given the virtual nonexistence of the Irish Air Corps, this strength would have had to come from the UK squadrons, so how would that have affected the Battle of Britain with perhaps up 5 squadrons of Hurricanes not being available? The same study planned to set up a new Radar chain in Ireland as well, would that have had an impact on the trained crews of Chain Home, having to stand up new stations over a period?

Would they not get cast off at least until BoB was over, ie Gladiators or maybe if spare Defiant? Post BoB it would get far better and all the toys as they became surplus from frontline RAF probably to the detriment of North Africa.....

For the RN, while they would have had the Treaty Ports back, both Lough Swilly and Berehaven hadn't had improvements that Cobh had and were areas that were heavily Republican, while on the other hand Cobh had lost pretty much all the labour force that supported the RN during WW1, and critical dock infrastructure had by this stage already been disabled leaving Cobh basically a marshaling area and not much else. Post Fall of France would there be enough spare hardware like AA guns to defend the Harbour if it was being used heavily?

Would simply sending a floating depot ship not be easier, ie a tender for example with AA guns and a few oilers for fuel? And AA wise, it's a long way to fly to attack a few DDs and an oil tanker or two.....?

 

[jsb]

On a AH style classic thread derail, what about later POD that your thread made me think of, have the Baedeker Blitz April–May 1942 or something attack something in Dublin and end up at that stage USAAF/USN could be used and tons of LL that might be far more politically viable?

 

[Finbarr the Fair]

June 1940 is an interesting time for an offer like this from Westminster. Leaving aside the - shall we say unlikelihood? - of a positive or even neutral reaction from the Unionist establishment and mobs, the short-term benefits to both Ireland and Britain are very limited. Ireland is open to German bombing and even "commando" raids. Britain has to divert fighters and other resources to build airfields and restore the naval bases

But, the danger to Ireland isn't that great, especially in the medium term. Unescorted bombers will be vulnerable to any fighters, obsolescent or not, once radar stations have been established. Could even Fairy Battles, Blenheims or repurposed Hawker Henleys be used there? Or any fighters provided by the US, by taking over French orders. Obviously the long term gains to the Battle of The Atlantic from use of Irish bases to extent the range of escorts and air cover would be substantial.

I think a better time would be in mid-1941 after Lend-Lease boosts British ability to assist the Irish Defence Forces. But that's irrelevant.

Because... Unionist veto, de facto if not de Jure.

 

[ShortsBelfast]

As I have said before, the demographic shift has barely started by 1940. NI is down from a 69% Unionist majority to a 65% Unionist majority but that is all. Again, in 1940 Unionists/Protestants are more evenly distributed across NI than is the case today when they have consolidated their population in the East Coast and Lisburn/Craigavon. This has (barely) started with the closure of the canals in the mid 1930s but there are still 16 shirt factories in Derry, Herdman's mills are still working away in Strabane and Sion Mills, Moygashel mill is still working away in Dungannon, Nestle's powdered milk factory has just opened in Omagh, postmen still live locally and deliver by bike, every small town has a bus depot and an egg and a milk collection centre, shop ownership is local (except for Boots and Woolworths) and branch banking labour intensive. Farming hasn't yet automated enough to obviate the need for farm labourers, nor has quarrying and there are still a lot of small local feed mills and sawmills. Not to mention cobblers and blacksmiths, coastal shipping and a much less consolidated fishing industry. I know a farmer in West Tyrone in his mid- seventies who can recall that, when he was a young man, Omagh and Strabane were still Protestant majority towns. These people weren't (in the main, leaving aside some RUC and UDR during the Troubles) persecuted or frozen out, they were rural or small town working class who moved to where the jobs and wages were.

 

[Ijon Tichy]

The key question if you receive an offer like that is: can the other party be trusted? And going by their experience of London since the 1910s in general, and in general remembering over the false promises made to Mick Collins during the Treaty negotiations (that the borders of the NI statelet would be drawn so narrowly that it wouldn't be a viable state in the long run), Dublin had to have concluded that London couldn't be trusted.

And given the fact that NI was both a sectarian statelet and an armed camp (the heavily armed B-Specials were a paramilitary force, but also de facto the army of the Stormont regime), forcing through this proposal would have required coercion of the Northern Irish unionist population. In 1912, the possibility of a similar move led to the Curragh mutiny: in the mid-60s, coercion of the white settlers in the so-called "Rhodesia" would prove to be a non-starter because HM Forces couldn't be directed to kill "kith and kin".

Dublin, given those facts, was right not to take this alleged offer of 1940 at face value.

 

[sparky42]

Cant say much about the politics,
Would they not get cast off at least until BoB was over, ie Gladiators or maybe if spare Defiant? Post BoB it would get far better and all the toys as they became surplus from frontline RAF probably to the detriment of North Africa.....

Even if it’s second rate airframes, the RAF still has to provide the pilots, ground crew, spares etc, the AC just doesn’t have the people.

 

[Hood]

This is a bit of just a thought process, but I am interested in peoples opinions.
In OTL there were discussions between London and Dublin in regards to Ireland joining the war, or at the very least letting the Treaty Ports be used, in return the British Government was offering to support the principle of a United Ireland:

The British Offer to End Partition, June 1940

most intriguing episodes in the history is the British proposal in June 1940 to end partition in return for Ireland’s participation in war against Germany.

www.historyireland.com

Britain offered unity if Ireland entered war

New documentary evidence detailing a British plan to guarantee a united Ireland if the government agreed to enter the second …

www.irishtimes.com

Now for various reasons (some right, others not) the Cabinet turned it down, and realistically it seems doubtful London had thought things through given the predictable Unionist response to just the suggestion of the offer.

But for the purposes of this thread (again just kind of thinking things through), I'd like opinions of what impacts if the offer had been accepted?

At the same period of this offer the RAF had drawn up plans for a deployment into Ireland with the suggested strength of 5-7 Squadrons, two Battle Squadrons and the rest Hurricanes. Given the virtual nonexistence of the Irish Air Corps, this strength would have had to come from the UK squadrons, so how would that have affected the Battle of Britain with perhaps up 5 squadrons of Hurricanes not being available? The same study planned to set up a new Radar chain in Ireland as well, would that have had an impact on the trained crews of Chain Home, having to stand up new stations over a period?

For the RN, while they would have had the Treaty Ports back, both Lough Swilly and Berehaven hadn't had improvements that Cobh had and were areas that were heavily Republican, while on the other hand Cobh had lost pretty much all the labour force that supported the RN during WW1, and critical dock infrastructure had by this stage already been disabled leaving Cobh basically a marshaling area and not much else. Post Fall of France would there be enough spare hardware like AA guns to defend the Harbour if it was being used heavily?

Meanwhile of course NI is likely to have reacted as NI does to such an offer from London, even though London had admitted it wouldn't force NI into a Union with Ireland, could you see an impact from the major war companies of H&W and Shorts? Given they tended to lean Unionist/Loyalist could you see anything from "Go Slows" to active Strikes, impacting everything up to Fleet Carriers?

If this had happened, has the UK actually created more short to medium problems and burdens for itself instead of benefits?

I think its a pretty shit deal for GB in reality, best thing to do would be negotiate treaty ports back, but I'll play ball.

North would be extremely pissed at the suggestion of being given up to the Free State, I cannot imagine it going well at all. How it'd go down, honestly its anyone guess. Slow downs very possible, you'd have to work something out that both sides can live with again

Ireland gets the shit old squadrons, theres no way the British gov defends Ireland at the cost of Britain. Absolute min until post BoB, drain on resources, I'd nearly assume Britain just sends training crews over, handing as much of the bag to the free state as possible.

Treaty ports are a mild gain, Berehaven being the big one for the Western Approaches. Sabotage is possible, idk. Quite worn down, but then even Cobh is a good port for operations.

 

[sparky42]

June 1940 is an interesting time for an offer like this from Westminster. Leaving aside the - shall we say unlikelihood? - of a positive or even neutral reaction from the Unionist establishment and mobs, the short-term benefits to both Ireland and Britain are very limited. Ireland is open to German bombing and even "commando" raids. Britain has to divert fighters and other resources to build airfields and restore the naval bases

But, the danger to Ireland isn't that great, especially in the medium term. Unescorted bombers will be vulnerable to any fighters, obsolescent or not, once radar stations have been established. Could even Fairy Battles, Blenheims or repurposed Hawker Henleys be used there? Or any fighters provided by the US, by taking over French orders. Obviously the long term gains to the Battle of The Atlantic from use of Irish bases to extent the range of escorts and air cover would be substantial.

I think a better time would be in mid-1941 after Lend-Lease boosts British ability to assist the Irish Defence Forces. But that's irrelevant.

Because... Unionist veto, de facto if not de Jure.

It is an interesting time even though as everyone agrees it wasn’t likely to happen with the position of NI at this time (somewhat understandably, not sure I would have wanted to live under with Dev either), but yeah the main area I was thinking about was the short term affects. The medium to long term ones are fairly clear, but the short term of such a move seems only to hurt more than benefit, I mean I doubt that the RN would leave the patrol situation as was around Ireland, so what assets does that pull from their OTL deployments?

As you say, once infrastructure was built up it would be a different story, but how quickly could the U.K. build up a new “Chain Home” set up with the pressure coming on their own at this stage?

Not sure what conditions might come into play that might have made a mid 1941 POD? I mean you have the States fairly well pissed with Dublin at this point.

 

[sparky42]

I think its a pretty shit deal for GB in reality, best thing to do would be negotiate treaty ports back, but I'll play ball.

North would be extremely pissed at the suggestion of being given up to the Free State, I cannot imagine it going well at all. How it'd go down, honestly its anyone guess. Slow downs very possible, you'd have to work something out that both sides can live with again

Ireland gets the shit old squadrons, theres no way the British gov defends Ireland at the cost of Britain. Absolute min until post BoB, drain on resources, I'd nearly assume Britain just sends training crews over, handing as much of the bag to the free state as possible.

Treaty ports are a mild gain, Berehaven being the big one for the Western Approaches. Sabotage is possible, idk. Quite worn down, but then even Cobh is a good port for operations.

I agree it’s a pretty shit deal, though its the one that London put on the table, I suppose because they figured Norther Ireland was the only item they could offer for the Ports?

Handing things over to the AC hits the issue that the AC has no capacity to actually operate increased squadrons, don’t have the numbers with me right now but you are talking about an extremely limited number in the AC at this point.

I’d argue against CTB compared to Cobh tbh, you’ve a much more hostile population, much more limited lines of communication for support and much more limited interwar work (the anti submarine detection systems were never installed a planned due to the hand over). Cobh has the larger harbour space, easier capacity to reinstate the flying boat bases of WW1 and a less hostile population.

 

[jsb]

I think its a pretty shit deal for GB in reality, best thing to do would be negotiate treaty ports back, but I'll play ball.

I would agree, simply a post or even permission to use a safe anchorage not even using the shore would very beneficial for refuelling DDs from a tender and tankers and flying boat with an accommodation ship also anchored with them? But probably not for something so large in NI what could they agree that was smaller?

Not sure what conditions might come into play that might have made a mid 1941 POD? I mean you have the States fairly well pissed with Dublin at this point.

Im not sure that if Ireland was attacked post LL they would not get lots of sympathy and be quickly given at least some LL by FDR as it would undercut one of the main remaning anti-British elements of American voters? That and opening Irish ports and airbases would help, so I can't see it not happening with US LL if Ireland ask for it in 1940?

 

[Ijon Tichy]

Another thing you should consider: if Ireland had been indispensable to Allied strategy or British defence, it would have been occupied as Iceland and northern Iran were. Ireland wasn't occupied in the manner of those two countries. Why do you think that was?

 

[sparky42]

Another thing you should consider: if Ireland had been indispensable to Allied strategy or British defence, it would have been occupied as Iceland and northern Iran were. Ireland wasn't occupied in the manner of those two countries. Why do you think that was?

Most likely as Pre US entry it would have tied down manpower the UK needed elsewhere (particularly post Fall of France), post US entry it wasn't needed enough to justify the outlay, not with the arrangements that had happened by that stage.

 

[Quintuplicate]

As I have said before, the demographic shift has barely started by 1940. NI is down from a 69% Unionist majority to a 65% Unionist majority but that is all. Again, in 1940 Unionists/Protestants are more evenly distributed across NI than is the case today when they have consolidated their population in the East Coast and Lisburn/Craigavon. This has (barely) started with the closure of the canals in the mid 1930s but there are still 16 shirt factories in Derry, Herdman's mills are still working away in Strabane and Sion Mills, Moygashel mill is still working away in Dungannon, Nestle's powdered milk factory has just opened in Omagh, postmen still live locally and deliver by bike, every small town has a bus depot and an egg and a milk collection centre, shop ownership is local (except for Boots and Woolworths) and branch banking labour intensive. Farming hasn't yet automated enough to obviate the need for farm labourers, nor has quarrying and there are still a lot of small local feed mills and sawmills. Not to mention cobblers and blacksmiths, coastal shipping and a much less consolidated fishing industry. I know a farmer in West Tyrone in his mid- seventies who can recall that, when he was a young man, Omagh and Strabane were still Protestant majority towns. These people weren't (in the main, leaving aside some RUC and UDR during the Troubles) persecuted or frozen out, they were rural or small town working class who moved to where the jobs and wages were.

When did Northern Ireland lose its Unionist majority?

 

[sparky42]

When did Northern Ireland lose its Unionist majority?

Perhaps about now, depending on how you calculate things.

 

[jsb]

Ireland wasn't occupied in the manner of those two countries. Why do you think that was?

With a British army already ashore in NI with ports and the RN and RAF cover next door, how does any fight not lead to something worse than sea lion.......?

 

[jsb]

When did Northern Ireland lose its Unionist majority?

Was the first election not 5th may 2022, the first not to give Unionist parties a majority? (and even then that might be just election transferable votes...?)

 

[ShortsBelfast]

When did Northern Ireland lose its Unionist majority?

It's complicated, because there are Roman Catholics who are Unionist and Protestants who are Nationalists, but the bulk of the RC population have either voted Nationalist or not voted at all/ voted for non aligned parties. These latter are mainly people who can't stomach traditional unionism but aren't enthusiastic about reunification either. But on a rule of thumb measure
1922 - NI is 69% Unionist
1942- 65% Unionist
1962 -62% Unionist
1982- 58% Unionist
2002-52% Unionist
2022- 49% Unionist.

 

[John_Smith12]

My question is that what exactly does the UK gain here? How does Ireland shift the war? Does the Irish Army take part in North Africa? Do the Australians being sent East earlier? I'm genuinely curious as to what Ireland adds that the US isn't already selling to the Brits. A quick wiki read tells me that the Irish Army at this point was actually quite substantial; 40k regulars and 100k reservists. However, the issue isn't solely numbers; I don't think that Ireland or Britain could really afford to equip that many troops immediately. I think we could see a could Irish divisions being sent off to Egypt or maybe Crete; although cooperation between London and Dublin will be an interesting field to navigate. With the very recent civil war; it'll be very easy to see that the 'Free State' concept is just a dominion with slightly more dignity. Depending on how things go Ireland would likely be a part of the Commonwealth.