UK occupied, Soviet Union survives?

I know the dreaded water mammal is not to be spoken of but for the sake of this let us assume the plan for the invasion occurs sooner, say on May 21 1940 when Erich Raeder approache dHitler with the idea of such an invision. Hitler turned away from it, but in this matter he decided it was a grand thing to plan for. So the Battle for Britain starts in June, and by July the Germans start coming over the straits of dover. Thanks to having more tanks, and gear the Germans have a victory by August.

Now the interesting thing is that in every such event we always assume Hitler will go at the Soviets. In this case I see no difference, yet what gets to me is the numbe rof men around for Hitler to use. In Norway the Nazi's had 100,000 men holding the area down, and in this case we have the UK a nation preparing for such an invasion.

So what would hold down the UK 200,000? 500,000? A million soldiers? Throw in partisans, passive ressitance and the UK on paper seems like a much worse version of Yugoslovia.

With such ideas in mind, how soon does Germany loose to the Soviets? Does America become largely involved in the European theater? Or is it limited to North Africa, and England?
 
Britain Occupied...

I think the original plans called for an occupation force of 250,000 possibly which for a country with a population of 48 million (in 1940) isn't a lot. I believe certain towns would be garrisoned but the Scottish Highlands, for example, would have been left to the resistance.

How long a resistance movement without access to American or other outside support would have survived I'm not sure but it's a good guess that similar groups on the mainland of Europe would have withered with time.

It's also possible that with Britain occupied, Ireland would have had to join the Axis or face invasion.

Ok, then, five scenarios with variations from here:

1) Germany invades the Soviet Union in April 1941 (no British-sponsored diversion in the Balkans) and at some point the Communist regime collapses or there is a coup and the Germans impose a harsh peace and effectively dominate Eurasia into the 1970s.

2) Germany invades the Soviet Union in April 1941 but eventually and after 25-30 million deaths, the Red Army turns the tide. Communist-backed resistance movements in western Europe greet the Red Army as it invades Germany. By 1946-47, western Europe is under Soviet political and military control.

3) Germany invades the Soviet Union, Japan attacks Pearl Harbour and Germany declares war on the USA. The Americans supply resistance groups in Britain and France but land militarily in North America. In time and via the attrition of the eastern front, the Germans are pushed back. American and Canadian forces land in southern France and eventually SW England. Britain and France are liberated, the Americans and Russians met at Torgau in April 1946 and Germany is crushed.

4) Germany invades the Soviet Union, Japan attacks Pearl Harbour and Germany declares war on the USA. The American advance through western Europe is slow as is the Soviet advance. Atomic bombs explode over Hanover, Munich and Nuremburg in August 1945 and the Nazi regime collapses.

5) Germany attacks the Soviet Union and Japan attacks Pearl Harbour. The Americans spend five years overcoming the Japanese in Asia while the Russians bleed against the Germans. With the eastern front stalemated, American forces land in Ireland, Britain and France and push into Germany occupying Berlin and securing all of Germany before the Red Army can arrive.
 
If I may Germany invaded Norway, which was not ready for a conflict, with 120,000 men. As you said of that 100,000 stayed, Now take the UK, which planned resistance, and had a lot of men on the ground. In my mind Germany would need a lot more then 250,000 to hold the place, during a war. I say during as Germany in this TL keeps its war disease and strikes at the Soviets. If Germany could focus all resources on the area of the UK and Western then its fine but in truth it would not have such a luxury.

The Auxillary Units that Churchill had planned for if Germany invaded worked on the ideals of the IRA. That was Intellegence->sabatoge-> assassination. The men in these units had weapons ready, and as history has shown most did not even tell their wives what they were up to. Now this is not saying a heroic militia will stop the Nazi's but the strain upon resources will be great.
 
Of course there's still the problem of Ireland it could be a base for US forces after all the Irish would be scared shitless of the Nazi’s too. Though they might make a grab for Ulster when Britain is beaten.:D

So Germany may need to secure Ireland too, and keep massive forces in Britain to hold it down. So while they may free up more aircraft for the eastern front they’d may be shorter on ground troops, plus even a successful sea-mammal would be a hard fight and take a looong time giving the Soviet time to prepare the Red Army.

With Britain down the US will send all it’s lend-lease to the Soviets via the Bering Strait. I dont see the Soviet Union getting beaten, hell in 1941 Hitler had a huge amount of luck so I dont see the Heer doing any better than it did IRL.
 
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