UK gives Hong Kong to ROC/Taiwan instead

What if the UK, instead of handing over Hong Kong to the PRC decides at the literally the last moment to withdraw from negotiations and gives it over to the ROC (Taiwan) citing them as the legitimate decendant of the Qing Dynasty who the original lease was signed with.

What are the effects? Does China go to War?
 
What if the UK, instead of handing over Hong Kong to the PRC decides at the literally the last moment to withdraw from negotiations and gives it over to the ROC (Taiwan) citing them as the legitimate decendant of the Qing Dynasty who the original lease was signed with.

What are the effects? Does China go to War?

erm yes

I'll just go dust off the plans for parking five million refugees in Ulster...yes Prime Minister the ones I rather regarded till now as a joke...
 
What are the effects? Does China go to War?

I don't know about war, but you probably don't want to be a British person resident in China at that point. Or a British company with investments or operations in China.

I'm also kinda guessing that the Taiwanese government would be like "WTF, Britain are you trying to get us invaded here?" and turn down the offer.
 

RousseauX

Donor
What if the UK, instead of handing over Hong Kong to the PRC decides at the literally the last moment to withdraw from negotiations and gives it over to the ROC (Taiwan) citing them as the legitimate decendant of the Qing Dynasty who the original lease was signed with.

What are the effects? Does China go to War?

The UK announces handing HK over to RoC in the morning, the tanks are already in Hong Kong by the afternoon or the next day at the latest.
 
The UK already recognized PRC as the legitimate ruler of China back in 1950, so effectively handing over to Taiwan means that they hand over to PRC, as Taiwan is legally part of PRC...
 
The UK already recognized PRC as the legitimate ruler of China back in 1950, so effectively handing over to Taiwan means that they hand over to PRC, as Taiwan is legally part of PRC...

Strictly the UK recognises the PRC as the legitimate sovereign of China and that the sovereignty of Taiwan is a matter to be resolved by the peoples of both sides of the Straits.
 
Strictly the UK recognises the PRC as the legitimate sovereign of China and that the sovereignty of Taiwan is a matter to be resolved by the peoples of both sides of the Straits.

Right, but the 'China' that Hong Kong was leased from was the mainland, if there are two.

I had asked this question some time back, and got the same answer (that Britain was one of the first countries to recognize the PRC), which really puts the nails in the coffin of this particular idea.
 
Right, but the 'China' that Hong Kong was leased from was the mainland, if there are two.

I had asked this question some time back, and got the same answer (that Britain was one of the first countries to recognize the PRC), which really puts the nails in the coffin of this particular idea.

As a better POD maybe reaction over Tianamen and fears by Brit ex-pats due to Tianamen force Westminster to consider this as a viable option.
 
What if the UK, instead of handing over Hong Kong to the PRC decides at the literally the last moment to withdraw from negotiations and gives it over to the ROC (Taiwan) citing them as the legitimate decendant of the Qing Dynasty who the original lease was signed with.

What are the effects?

Britain recognized the PRC as sovereign of China (and ended formal relations with the RoC) many years before the handover.

So there is no chance that they would do such a turnabout.

Does China go to War?

Hong Kong's water supply is an aqueduct from a river about 120 km (IIRC) inside China. China can close the tap at will. So there was never any real question of Hong Kong not being handed over, only whether China would have to use that leverage explicitly.
 
Hong Kong's water supply is an aqueduct from a river about 120 km (IIRC) inside China. China can close the tap at will. So there was never any real question of Hong Kong not being handed over, only whether China would have to use that leverage explicitly.

That and the tanks.

Really, even in the scant chance that Britain handed this to the Taipei government, the PLA would easily overrun the city before any real response could come up. You'll probably need a far earlier POD which offsets the imbalance in the ROC's favour (mainly keeping southern China from falling to Communist forces).
 
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