Reading Nick Smart's The National Government 1931-40, in the wave of optimism that followed the signing of the Munich Agreement Neville Chamberlain seriously considered calling a snap General Election, and both the press and Labour Party expected him to call a snap poll within months. Eventually Chamberlain decided to postpone an election from late 1938-early 1939 and seems to have planned for a poll in October-November 1939, by which point he expected his policy of appeasement to have guaranteeed 'Peace in our time' and slowed down/stopped the government's re-armarment programme in order to allow his to propose tax cuts.
But what if Chamberlain had called a snap election for November 1938? or prepared for an election in February-March 1939? (for arguments sake lets say a polling day before the German occupation of Czechoslovakia, reneging on the Munich Agreement, on 16th March)
The by-election record is mixed but generally predicts Labour would improve on its 1935 performance, but that the National Government would have been re-elected. Quintin Hogg had won the Oxford by-election for the government against an anti-appeasement independent in late October 1938, whilst in November a similar contest in Bridgewater saw the anti-appeasement Vernon Bartlett win a strong victory. Labour was to win Dartford off the government that same month, but on a fairly negligible swing. As a rough guess it appears Labour was on course to gain perhaps 30-40 seats in a 1938-39 poll, but not a great deal more.
If that were the case, it would put greater pressure on Attlee's leadership. OTL in the summer of 1939 there was a strong push by Hugh Dalton and Herbert Morrison to oust Attlee as leader, and in a situation where Labour had failed to make a significant breakthrough that push would have been stronger. Would he have been removed, or stood down as Labour leader?
But what if Chamberlain had called a snap election for November 1938? or prepared for an election in February-March 1939? (for arguments sake lets say a polling day before the German occupation of Czechoslovakia, reneging on the Munich Agreement, on 16th March)
The by-election record is mixed but generally predicts Labour would improve on its 1935 performance, but that the National Government would have been re-elected. Quintin Hogg had won the Oxford by-election for the government against an anti-appeasement independent in late October 1938, whilst in November a similar contest in Bridgewater saw the anti-appeasement Vernon Bartlett win a strong victory. Labour was to win Dartford off the government that same month, but on a fairly negligible swing. As a rough guess it appears Labour was on course to gain perhaps 30-40 seats in a 1938-39 poll, but not a great deal more.
If that were the case, it would put greater pressure on Attlee's leadership. OTL in the summer of 1939 there was a strong push by Hugh Dalton and Herbert Morrison to oust Attlee as leader, and in a situation where Labour had failed to make a significant breakthrough that push would have been stronger. Would he have been removed, or stood down as Labour leader?
