UK and France intervine in Spanish Civil War

[masteroftheveiledthreat]

What would have happened if the UK and France had intervined in the Spanish Civil War to the extent that Germany and Italy did IOTL?

Would it have started WWII early?

Irregardless how would it affected WWII. I doubt if it would have prevented it. However it might make a better world, or would it?

 

[Jape]

EdT's "A Greater Britain" TL has a more sympathetic Labour Government back the Republicans. This encouraged France to help and even Fascist Italy due to a continued *Stresa Front.

Anglo-French backing if it was muscular could have tipped the balance. On an early WWII? I doubt it, the Entente doesn't want to fight Germany and Hitler certainly doesn't want to fight them in 1936 - especially over Spain. Plenty of times rival powers have sent aid into "small" wars and bar chilling relations never really leads to it expanding.

 

[masteroftheveiledthreat]

What would have happened if the UK and France had intervined in the Spanish Civil War to the extent that Germany and Italy did IOTL?

Would it have started WWII early?

Irregardless how would it affected WWII. I doubt if it would have prevented it. However it might make a better world, or would it?

I forgot to say on the Republican side.

 

[masteroftheveiledthreat]

EdT's "A Greater Britain" TL has a more sympathetic Labour Government back the Republicans. This encouraged France to help and even Fascist Italy due to a continued *Stresa Front.

Anglo-French backing if it was muscular could have tipped the balance. On an early WWII? I doubt it, the Entente doesn't want to fight Germany and Hitler certainly doesn't want to fight them in 1936 - especially over Spain. Plenty of times rival powers have sent aid into "small" wars and bar chilling relations never really leads to it expanding.

Do you think a Republican victory might have taken lead out of Hitler's and Mussolini's pencils?

 

[Tocomocho]

If the British had been sympathetic to the Republicans the crossing of the straits would have not been possible and the war would have ended in a matter of weeks. Of course, IOTL they weren't.

 

[Alternate History]

Do you think a Republican victory might have taken lead out of Hitler's and Mussolini's pencils?

I doubt it. Germany and Italy mostly wanted to test their weapons and secure valuable combat experience for their volunteer generals. Hitler never really expected Franco to be an ally after the civil war, considering Franco always expressly refused to join the German military alliance.

 

[masteroftheveiledthreat]

I doubt it. Germany and Italy mostly wanted to test their weapons and secure valuable combat experience for their volunteer generals. Hitler never really expected Franco to be an ally after the civil war, considering Franco always expressly refused to join the German military alliance.

But would it have lessened confidence Hitler and Mussolini had in their destinies to a degree that would have made a difference, messing with their potency, figuratively and psycologically, of course?

And did Hitler really think Franco would do what you said? Or had he already done it before Hitler helped?

 

[Daztur]

As has been noted, all that would've been necessary to make the Republicans win would be to keep Franco forces penned up in Northern Morocco instead of transported over into Spain. Without that the Republicans would've taken the south leaving only Castille and Aragon for the Nationalists, were they'd have a hard time building an army from especially if the Republicans have Andalucian manpower...

 

[Geordie]

As has been noted, all that would've been necessary to make the Republicans win would be to keep Franco forces penned up in Northern Morocco instead of transported over into Spain. Without that the Republicans would've taken the south leaving only Castille and Aragon for the Nationalists, were they'd have a hard time building an army from especially if the Republicans have Andalucian manpower...

Quite. The KM vessels escorting the Army of Africa over the straits had very strict instructions about avoiding the RN. If they'd moved out of Gibraltar to prevent a landing, then it'd be back to Morocco. Having the most professional and experienced officers on your side, as well as the regulares, counts nothing if they can't be transported to the front.

It takes quite a change at Whitehall or Gibraltar to fix this though, as they were more willing to help the Nationalists than be truly neutral*.

*According to Beevor's fine book on the subject.

 

[Cook]

I doubt it. Germany and Italy mostly wanted to test their weapons and secure valuable combat experience for their volunteer generals. Hitler never really expected Franco to be an ally after the civil war, considering Franco always expressly refused to join the German military alliance.

Just the opposite is in fact the case; Germany and Italy aided the Nationalists from the beginning and for purely ideological grounds. The Germans and Italians were fully involved in the Spanish Civil War from its beginning, taking part in what they expected to be a swift coup against the Popular Front government. The German and Italian diplomatic delegations had been briefed by the conspirators of their plans prior to the uprising, and when things went wrong and the Coup failed to topple the government, it was German and Italian involvement that saved the rebellion. Luftwaffe and Regia Aeronatica transport planes flew the Army of Africa from Morocco to Spain when the rebels failed to secure the support of the Spanish navy and the Kriegsmarine escorted Franco’s transport ships carrying across the Straits, taking part in what they thought would be a very swift battle. That the Germans learnt a great deal with regard to air combat tactics, co-ordination of air and armour was an unforseen bonus that was the result of the civil war dragging on far longer than they’d ever expected it to.

In return for aid Franco guaranteed Mussolini access to sea and air bases in the Balearic Islands if he found himself at war with France. During World War Two, Italian aircraft bombing Gibraltar regularly refuelled at the Balearics on their way back to Sardinia.

Franco signed the Anti-Comintern Pact in March 1939, and signed a string of trade agreements with Germany, most notably to supply Wolfram to the Reich. When the general war broke out in Europe, Franco was initially cautious, remaining neutral. However he changed Spain’s status to non-belligerent the day that the Germans took Paris, occupying free city of Tangier at the same time, despite British protests.

As a non-belligerent, in addition to allowing German and Italian merchant shipping safe passage in Spanish waters, and the Italian access to air bases in the Balearics mentioned already, Franco also provided the Kriegsmarine with U-boat bases in Cadiz, from where they could swiftly attack allied shipping approaching the Straits of Gibraltar, and in the Canaries, from where they could attack convoys from the South Atlantic well beyond therange of air cover. Luftwaffe reconnaissance aircraft, usually Dornier Do-17s, carried out missions from bases in the west of Spain from where they were able to reach more than half way across the Atlantic. When Germany invaded the Soviet Union, Franco sent a division of volunteers to the campaign.

Franco was enthusiastic for Axis success when he met Hitler in October 1940, keen to take part in the expected victory and enjoy some of the spoils. The reason he didn’t was because Germany was unable to provide the necessary food, oil and military supplies that would have been necessary to replace imports that would have been blocked by the Royal Navy. Hitler, for his part, was incensed that Franco would not carry through with his promises and declare war on Britain.

Spain only ceased supporting the Axis and declared itself neutral again in October 1943, after the Fall of Mussolini and when it was obvious that the Axis would be defeated.

 

[gigalocus]

Franco was enthusiastic for Axis success when he met Hitler in October 1940, keen to take part in the expected victory and enjoy some of the spoils. The reason he didn’t was because Germany was unable to provide the necessary food, oil and military supplies that would have been necessary to replace imports that would have been blocked by the Royal Navy. Hitler, for his part, was incensed that Franco would not carry through with his promises and declare war on Britain.[/FONT]

Er, I was under the impression that Franco intentionally asked for things he knew Hitler couldn't provide, such as food, oil and military supplies because he had no interest in joining the Axis, at that time at least, but couldn't outright say no because he felt he owed Hitler somewhat. So he made demands that were impossible to meet, so Hitler had to turn him down.

 

[MattII]

Do a more interventionist France and Britain also allow the Soviets to send more stuff through?

 

[Tocomocho]

With the Republicans getting better and cheaper stuff from Britain and France it is pointless to buy Soviet armament and catter to what Moscow thinks. They might still form the International Brigades, though (since I don't see the UK and France actually sending troops under any recognizable scenario).

 

[Cook]

Er, I was under the impression that Franco intentionally asked for things he knew Hitler couldn't provide...So he made demands that were impossible to meet, so Hitler had to turn him down.

The list of requirements that the Spanish provided to the Germans was consistent with their requirements. The civil war had only ended the year before and had devastated the largely agrarian economy; Spain was unable to feed itself and what produce the country’s farms did yield was dependent of imported phosphates. They had no local source of oil and no means of buying up any to stockpile prior to going to war because the country was quite simply bankrupt.

During the civil war the Republican government had sent the nation’s gold reserves overseas to prevent it falling to the Nationalists, some went to France but by far the bulk of it went to the Soviet Union so that Stalin, in the spirit of Solidarity with his Spanish comrades, had offered to ensure its safety. Ludicrously, the Spanish had trusted him.

Something very important to remember concerning the aid provided to the two sides in the Civil War by Germany, Italy and the Soviet Union, by far the bulk of it was payed for; the Germans and Italians were willing to accept credit from the Nationalists, but Stalin insisted that the Republicans pay in cash, or more correctly, gold. The use of the national gold reserves to pay for armaments undermined confidence in the Republican Peseta, causing inflation and making it even harder for the Republicans willing to ignore the League of Nations embargo and sell to them. Stalin took the opportunity of a near monopoly in the sale of arms to the Republicans to charge ridiculous prices for everything. By the time the Republic finally fell their gold reserves had been almost completely used up.

On the other side, the Nationalists had started with no gold and no great wealth in the regions they occupied, but Germany and Italy’s willingness to accept credit strengthened the Nationalists, currency and resulted in lower inflation in Nationalist controlled regions of Spain. But by the end of the war the country was still broke and heavily in debt to the Axis powers; the produce of Spanish mines were signed over for years to come to pay off the war debt, meaning that it could not be sold internationally to buy goods or build up any financial reserve. So for Spain to have entered the wider European war in 1940, they really would have needed everything they asked the Germans for.

What would have happened if the UK and France had intervined in the Spanish Civil War to the extent that Germany and Italy did IOTL? Would it have started WWII early?

A few things have to be considered here; British and French intervention in a foreign civil war would have been an action almost without precedent for them. The most recent time they’d sent forces into a foreign civil war was against the Bolsheviks during the Russian Civil War. That had only happened because the Provisional Russian government had been an ally against the Germans and the result of the intervention was not going to inspire anyone to try something similar anytime soon. Prior to that had been the Boxer Rebellion in China; again, not an inspiring episode.

Furthermore, for Britain’s Baldwin government the Spanish Civil War was seen as another Sarajevo; a local dispute that they had no stake in but that had the potential to spark a European wide war. The potential could not be ignored, and it terrified them. The Germans and Italians were directly involved in Spain from the beginning, any involvement by Britain and France risked confrontation with them.

Not that there was much that the British could have done even if they’d been willing to provide aid or, more realistically, sell arms and other aid to the Republicans; Britain was not only still struggling to recover from the Great Depression, but because of earlier disarmament policies they were almost without serious arms to send! And it needs to be remembered that British involvement would have been viewed with suspicion by many Spanish, very conscious that their port of Gibraltar was still illegally held by the British Empire.

For the perpetually unstable French Third Republic things were no better. The French did have an interest in denying the Nationalists power in Spain; with Franco in power in Madrid, France would be faced with a Fascist dictatorship on three sides, demanding even more resources be spent on national defence and potentially providing a backdoor to the Maginot Line. Furthermore, the French government, only one month in office when the civil war broke out, was a Popular Front coalition like that in Spain (although considerably less extremist) and Leon Blum, the French Prime Minister, was initially inclined to send aid to the Republicans. But France was in far worse financial conditions than the British and concessions by the government to the industrial trade unions, instead of bringing harmony, had resulted in even greater disruption. The fact that Blum was a Jewish Prime Minister in a nation with strong anti-Semitic traditions didn’t help. When the Army high command reported that continuing to send arms to Spain ran the risk of rebellion in the French Army, it was a threat they had to take very seriously.

So any British and French involvement in the Spanish Civil War would have been limited to considerably less than Soviet assistance even if they been willing to take the risk of starting another European war and for the French the added risk of civil war on top of that!

The threat of wider war was very real, towards the end of the war President Azana hoped to hold out long enough for the Republican cause to be saved by war breaking out in Europe. With British and French involvement there would have been not only the possibility of things spiralling out of control accidentally, but the risk that the Republicans would try to deliberately widen the war.

All of that aside, the British and French should have been more involved in the Spanish Civil War. Both countries maintained diplomatic relations with Madrid with military attaches, so both could have sent people to observe the fighting. Had they done so, they’d have seen that both the Nationalist and Republican sides were experimenting with mobile armoured warfare and aircraft for ground attack, the Nationalists with considerably more success.

 

[MattII]

With the Republicans getting better and cheaper stuff from Britain and France it is pointless to buy Soviet armament and catter to what Moscow thinks.

That's assuming Britain and France actually sell of some of their stuff, and that the Republicans can keep it running, but since most of the tanks produced by these countries were produced only in small amounts, then I have my doubts.

 

[gigalocus]

The list of requirements that the Spanish provided to the Germans was consistent with their requirements. ...

Fundamentally, I agree with you. Spain wouldn't, or couldn't join the Axis without all of these demands. But I've always been lead to Believe Franco knew Germany could not meet these demands, and had no intention of joining the axis, at least, not in 1940. Spain was bankrupt and relied on British imports, joining the Axis would be suicide. Franco knew this, and so asked for a list of demands that not only included this, but things like French North Africa and the troops and equipment to capture Gibraltar.

Franco made a shopping list he knew Hitler couldn't fulfil so he didn't have to join the Axis. I've never read any credible sources that suggest Franco thought Hitler might ever accept them and so had any intention of joining Hitler's cause. Could you point me in the right direction of any books that argue the case? I'm more then a little bit interested in the other side, but never read anything I could buy in to. Thanks.

 

[MattII]

I've heard that at least part of the reason Franco made so many demands was that Canaris advised him that Germany wasn't going to win and that he should do his best to stay out of the war.

 

[Kome]

That's assuming Britain and France actually sell of some of their stuff, and that the Republicans can keep it running, but since most of the tanks produced by these countries were produced only in small amounts, then I have my doubts.

Alternatively France realizes that keeping almost 2000 Ft-17's in storage is kinda worthless, and their value is only gonna go down as time goes on.

 

[masteroftheveiledthreat]

Do a more interventionist France and Britain also allow the Soviets to send more stuff through?

I guess it depends on what they send.

 

[Cook]

Franco made a shopping list he knew Hitler couldn't fulfil so he didn't have to join the Axis. I've never read any credible sources that suggest Franco thought Hitler might ever accept them and so had any intention of joining Hitler's cause. Could you point me in the right direction of any books that argue the case? I'm more then a little bit interested in the other side, but never read anything I could buy in to. Thanks.

Sorry, I missed this post.

Anthony Beevor’s The Battle for Spain gives a detailed account of the war and has a chapter covering Spain’s involvement in World War Two. Basically the theory that Franco deliberately presented a shopping list that was too large for Hitler to fill is a conspiracy theory with a single conspirator: Franco himself. There is no evidence from the actual war years that he was anything but entirely sincere in his offer to enter the war, he initially offered to enter the war in June 1940, this offer was rejected by Germany because the assumption was that Britain would shortly negotiate and a Spanish seat at the negotiating table would only complicate things unnecessarily.

The requested economic support seems to have not been an exaggeration, and may have even been an underestimation of what they’d realistically have needed. This is from a letter sent by the German Ambassador in Madrid to the Reich Foreign Ministry on 8 August, 1940:

‘Besides this military assistance, however, economic support of Spain will also be necessary. To this belong, above all else, the delivery of gasoline and, at the beginning of next year, delivery of grain for bread. According to a recent utterance of the Spanish Minister of Foreign Affairs (of the third of this month) Spain, due to its shortage of gasoline, can wage war without our help 1 1/2 months at the most As concerns the grain for bread, the Minister believes that Spain has sufficient supplies until about March of next year. I consider this latter supposition as too optimistic, unless a strict rationing is carried out.’

So the list of Spanish requirements doesn’t seem to have been an exaggeration. The Spanish claims on French Imperial territory (Morocco and half of Algeria), which to us seems excessive in light of any Spanish involvement in the war, is consistent with Spanish irredentism and other Fascist territorial claims; Mussolini’s claims against the French (Nice, Corsica and Tunisia) after only a few days of unsuccessful fighting are equally overblown and were equally resented by the Germans, but were not rejected at the time of the Spanish offer. And the Spanish would not have known at the time they made their offer that Hitler would later hope to entice France into greater involvement in the war against Britain and therefore reject all claims on French imperial territory. The French, even without declaring war, were fighting the British, and had stronger, better equipped forces than Spain could offer.

Then there is the fact that Franco risked British attack by making Spanish ports and airfields available to the Axis for several years until it was very obvious that Germany was going to lose the war. After the war it was in Franco’s interests to sell the story that he’d never intended to enter the war and hadn’t really supported the Axis cause.