Without Iraq, how much would UK politics change? I assume Labour wouldn't be weakened on their left flank as they were IOTL '05. Can they hang on for another term in '10 or not? Effects on the succession?
That won't change anything for the United Kingdom except avoiding lots of deathes of some people as well as probably higher oil prices as Saddam still controls the Iraqui Oil fields.
On the contrary- no Iraq means much less anger at Labour in general and Tony Blair in particular, which probably means a third landslide win in 2005, with the Tories gaining ten or fifteen seats at best, and the Liberal Democrats possibly even going backwards. A Labour majority of, say, 130, will be near impossible to overturn at a 2010 election, no matter how unpopular Labour is, so the Labour Party is able to win a fourth term- it almost certainly won't go much below 300 seats. A small Labour majority seems likely to me, or a Lib/Lab coalition.
Tony Blair remains personally stronger in the Labour Party, and is better able to stand up to the Brownites for a while longer, perhaps until the autumn of 2008? By this point, the economy will be coming under increasing trouble, so Gordon Brown's succession to the Labour leadership may be contested, though it's very unlikely he'll be beaten.
On the contrary- no Iraq means much less anger at Labour in general and Tony Blair in particular, which probably means a third landslide win in 2005, with the Tories gaining ten or fifteen seats at best, and the Liberal Democrats possibly even going backwards. A Labour majority of, say, 130, will be near impossible to overturn at a 2010 election, no matter how unpopular Labour is, so the Labour Party is able to win a fourth term- it almost certainly won't go much below 300 seats. A small Labour majority seems likely to me, or a Lib/Lab coalition.
Tony Blair remains personally stronger in the Labour Party, and is better able to stand up to the Brownites for a while longer, perhaps until the autumn of 2008? By this point, the economy will be coming under increasing trouble, so Gordon Brown's succession to the Labour leadership may be contested, though it's very unlikely he'll be beaten.
How much money did the British pump into Iraq to support the rather large number of British troops in country?
No British involvement in Iraq, that could translate into tens of billions of Pounds that could be freed up for other purposes. Even if the money is used for military purposes, it could still vastly change the British military setup. Maybe having more Type 45 destroyers. Perhaps the new Queen Elizabeth class aircraft carriers are funded and construction starts on at least one of the two a year or so earlier.
It'll going into spending on election winning schools 'n' hospitals under Gordon Brown's Chancellorship, not the military. No doubt about it.
I agree with this statement, but fundamentally, it all hangs on whether Northern Rock is going to have a run on it. My guess would be that a combination of credit crunch and a Labour-fatigued electorate will still be fatal to the party's chances, but with no Iraq war, there is definitely room for the US in particular to do things that might mitigate the housing bubble.If Blair manages to avoid Iraq you might never see Brown in Number Ten.
How much money did the British pump into Iraq to support the rather large number of British troops in country?
No British involvement in Iraq, that could translate into tens of billions of Pounds that could be freed up for other purposes. Even if the money is used for military purposes, it could still vastly change the British military setup. Maybe having more Type 45 destroyers. Perhaps the new Queen Elizabeth class aircraft carriers are funded and construction starts on at least one of the two a year or so earlier.
Agreed, Brown practically hated the military. Despite undergoing an economic boom (regardless of how rotton it was) he still, having been party to sending the forces into Iraq in the first place, in 2003-2005 cut their budget and forced them to downsize. Part of the reason the military is in such shite state now (besides Conservative incompetence) was because the ever greedy Brown constantly underfunded them.
Instead, see even more PFI hospitals and schools.
Russell