...I've been in an "African anti-insurgency"-mood lately, and as my books about the Rhodesian War and South African Border War haven't arrived yet, I pulled my book off the shelf about the Mau-Mau Uprising, written by Charles Abiodun Alao.
One thing it mentions is the core belief among many of the men who became the Mau-Mau commanders that the white Kenyans would issue a Unilateral Declaration of Independence very soon, and that they must try and take action against the authorities before that happened.
Now first off, I'm fairly convinced that any attempt by a white minority government in Kenya to hang on to power would be doomed to go down the tubes even faster than Rhodesia did, especially if there was no outside help at all.
But let's suppose that what the Mau-Mau feared came true: the KAU issued it's demands for fuller representation in a future Kenyan government as in OTL, in mid-1951. This puts the Kenyan colonial government in a state of shock.
The scales are tipped in August '52, when the police chief of Nairobi is speared to death in the middle of the day in a suburb.
Let's suppose that the heads in the halls of power in Nairobi are a bit hotter, and they decide that the British can't help them and the only choice is to help themselves through the enaction of the UDI and the hope that the mother country will assist them when it has the strength to.
What happens next?