The only way I could see this happening is if two things are in place first; the Japanese develop a highly effective air defense network for the Home Islands (this would require them to cut their losses very early and reposition for defense only), and they deploy a super-weapon which damages civilians in the USA without halting the advances in the Pacific (this requires good luck in the biological warfare department). They can't project power or resupply their forces in China (possibly they can't evacuate them), and they can't be bombarded with conventional weapons either.
Now you need a 'The Big One' to take down Japan in one stroke. Instead of two Bombs in 45, Japan takes fifty (out of a hundred) in 47. If the establishment survives, they do not give a surrender, and so local officers organize guerrilla campaigns to resist the occupation (massed forces get Bombed). With a lot of bad blood on every side, the occupation is not going to be pleasant, and it's not going to end.
By 2015, Japan is still majority Japanese (though almost everyone has at least one Nikkei grandparent), but they are majority English speaking, and with a sizable and privileged American minority.
It's not very likely, but I'd say that's the way it would happen.