U.S.S.R. opts out of Pacific War '45, does U.S. view it as hostile act? When does Japan surrender?

...
When discussing the surrender of Japan, we must also take into account also internal Japanese factors. While atomic bombs and the Soviet attack usually are cited as main reasons for the Japanese surrender, there was also the third issue, namely the fear of domestic rebellion. This was actually a quite major fear among the Japanese elite during the summer 1945 and was one issue which contributed to the decision to end the war.

....

This is quite remarkable, because there is no evidence there was any truth in what the Japanese elite feared. It was quite the "Phantom Menace" stemming from their own insecurities, paranoia, or perhaps even shall we say, "guilty feelings".

My take is the fear might be better translated as of 'disorder'. That is riots over food, inability to get the civil population to cooperate with military actions, technicians and managers deserting essential communications or transportation tasks... John Skates 'The Invasion of Japan' examined the behavior of the Japanese civilians on Okinawa & suggests the idea of 50 million women & children attacking with grenades and bamboo spears is not supportable. While the Japanese militia battalions on Okinawa were of some utility, these were men trained and armed akin to regular army standards. The bulk of the Japanese civilians on Okinawa were of negligable effect. Col Yahara the Japanese 10th Army operations officer and senior survivor collaborates this, describing how the militia units of Japanese were of some use vs the Americans, the Okinawan militia near useless, and the civilians useless - in the way as it were.
 
In the end, Japan was close to surrender anyway. With their merchant fleet effectively wiped out along with most of its industrial capacity, no Soviet intervention would only have delayed Japanese surrender at most 45 days.
 
This is quite remarkable, because there is no evidence there was any truth in what the Japanese elite feared. It was quite the "Phantom Menace" stemming from their own insecurities, paranoia, or perhaps even shall we say, "guilty feelings".

The evidence is grounded in the localised famines of the early thirties, where riots would break out into pitched battles between different localities and then lead to head on clashes between starving peasants and the army.

The leaders of Japan knew that their hold on power was fragile and one of the reasons they had sold the invasion of China to themselves was that it was a means of alleviating their agricultural and population problems.
 
I get the reference to the character, the late Mr. Bompansiero (that rat!) Although I didn't see its applicability in desmirelle's post, which seems like it was from an alternate timeline where Japan attacked the Soviet Union in WWII instead of vice versa as in OTL.



The above is the portion I just didn't get and was annotating with "?"
With just a ? and we have a lot of members by age and different Nationalities I wasn't sure what you were questioning. Sorry my trying to help offended you. It won't happen again
 
The US is out of bombs after Nagasaki.
They only had 3.

As far as I know, the next one wasn't ready before 1946, I doubt they would simply polish their shoes for the rest of the year...

The next Core ( the so called 'Demon' Core)was on hold by order of Truman, waiting for the greenlight for a C-54 trip to Tinian. The Fatboy cases were already stockpiled there already

From the wiki
On August 10, Major General Leslie R. Groves, Jr., wrote to General of the Army George C. Marshall, the Chief of Staff of the United States Army, to inform him that:

The next bomb of the implosion type had been scheduled to be ready for delivery on the target on the first good weather after August 24th, 1945. We have gained 4 days in manufacture and expect to ship the final components from New Mexico on August 12th or 13th. Providing there are no unforeseen difficulties in manufacture, in transportation to the theatre or after arrival in the theatre, the bomb should be ready for delivery on the first suitable weather after August 17th or 18th
 
If the USSR does not declare war on Japan, I really don't see the USA giving any territorial concessions to them. The only possible exception might be Southern Sakhalin, but still you'd see the USA occupy it first, and ceding it to the Soviets something that happened later. Given how rapidly the Soviets ignored various provisions of the Yalta Agreements the USA might decide not to give the Soviets a freebie with South Sakhalin. This leads to an interesting situation where you have US forces on the border of the USSR, also US litening posts and airfields in Sakhalin as bases for surveillance of the Soviet far east. likewise with the Kuriles still owned by Japan this makes life really difficult for the Soviet Pacific Fleet out f Vladivostok and even Petropavlosk.
 
Some of the Japanese leaders would cling to their fantasy of the USSR acting as mediator in peace negotiations & a eventual Japanese ally against the US & Britain. Perhaps yet more diplomats giving desperate pitches to their Soviet counterparts about assisting Japan in seeking peace, & expanding the previous agreements?
 
Thanks for adding the detail. I'm glad my memory wasn't too faulty!

Did the US agree in advance to this then?
I'm unclear what the U.S. agreed to in advance. In the previous chapter of my copy of Volume VI (Chapter XIV, 'Prelude to a Moscow Visit'), Churchill includes some of his correspondence with Roosevelt in the run up to the meeting and in a communication to Roosevelt dated September 29th, Churchill indicates: '...The two great objects we have in mind would be, firstly, to clinch his coming in against Japan, and, secondly, to try to effect an amicable settlement with Poland. There are other points too concerning Yugoslavia and Greece which we would also discuss. We should keep you informed at every point. Averell's assistance would of course be welcomed by us, or perhaps you could send Stettinius or Marshall. I feel certain that personal contact is essential...'

I can't find any specific mention to Greece or Yugoslavia in any of Roosevelt's responses after that which were included in the chapter. There are some mentions by Roosevelt that he's happy that he will have Averell Harriman there (at the meeting in Moscow) as his 'observer', but if Roosevelt had any strong interest at that time (either for or against an eastern Europe deal) which he sent indication of to Churchill, it doesn't seem to me to be a feature of the correspondence which made it into the volume.

It might be possible that with a U.S. election coming up and with the war against Japan to still be finished once Germany was dealt with, that Roosevelt had higher priority matters of concern to him at that time, perhaps?
 
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oberdada

Gone Fishin'
The next Core ( the so called 'Demon' Core)was on hold by order of Truman, waiting for the greenlight for a C-54 trip to Tinian. The Fatboy cases were already stockpiled there already

From the wiki
On August 10, Major General Leslie R. Groves, Jr., wrote to General of the Army George C. Marshall, the Chief of Staff of the United States Army, to inform him that:

The next bomb of the implosion type had been scheduled to be ready for delivery on the target on the first good weather after August 24th, 1945. We have gained 4 days in manufacture and expect to ship the final components from New Mexico on August 12th or 13th. Providing there are no unforeseen difficulties in manufacture, in transportation to the theatre or after arrival in the theatre, the bomb should be ready for delivery on the first suitable weather after August 17th or 18th

Apparently my information was incorrect.
As I was told by to other members already, to which I replied accordingly.
That should be enough...
 
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