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What if Ross Perot had permanently pulled out of the U.S. presidential election in 1992 as he did OTL before re-entering the race? How do you think the contest would have gone as a more traditional two-party struggle? Basically assume Perot is off the ballot in most states and only picks up a few write-in votes.
On the one hand for a Bush victory you've got: incumbency; the general assumption that Perot attracted more Republican than Democratic voters OTL; the persistent perception that the Democrats were disorganised and had no chance.
For a Clinton victory you've got: the economy, stupid; the idea that the Republicans were responsible for pressuring Perot to quit ; more charismatic than Bush.