U.S Civil War with just the original 1783 states
Well, the immediate cause (the expansion of the United States and the legal status of slavery in the new territories) is now gone. The slave-owning plantation owners would probably have a longer lasting influence on American politics, but abolitionism would still be on the rise in the 19th century, and with immigration and industrialization in the north, I feel that the election of a Lincoln-esque president (with all its attendant effects) is more or less inevitable.
An interesting scenario would be if the Southern states have such a tight grip on the Federal government that the northern states secede.
An interesting scenario would be if the Southern states have such a tight grip on the Federal government that the northern states secede.
Worth noting Maryland and Virginia up to the 1830s had a homegrown abolitionist movement that easily could've spread to the west of the Upper South had Virginia abolished slavery in 1832, and without an expansion of slavery in the Deep South the Chesapeake will tilt further to commercial leanings and less "homegrown slave market to sell slaves to, keep slavery going!". Still delicate to deal with - Maryland especially will still be considered southern in TTL with such smaller regions - but the north will proceed apace like OTL and the Chesapeake may see which way the wind blows. In that case, since North Carolina will cleave to its older brother Virginia, it's just South Carolina carrying Georgia, Mississippi, and Alabama - the latter two not even getting ports if you keep the strict 1783 boundaries.
I'm working on a TL where the US are limited to their East Coast States for most of the XIXth Century (with later expansion), so it entails the territory of the 13 original states + Florida (I guess that by the point of the Civil Wat that would make it 16 States overall).
Thanks for the pointer, I had completely overlooked that factor !
Why so? Were they more influential in the East Coast States?
That could be more impactful in this TL indeed.
This is like asking how would World War I unfold if Germany had not unified. There's so many butterflies the war probably won't happen and if it did it would bear little if any resemblance to OTL's war.
Westward expansion by US citizens would still happen. If they don't join the US, then they will be forming new countries, like OTL's Republic of Texas. These countries might be pro- or anti-slavery. They might end up puppets of the US, Britain, France, Spain, or Mexico. They might make war on the US, Canada, Mexico, or each other. Faced with a bigger political landscape than in OTL, as well as much lower population, the Union almost certianly would not have a Civil War and if they did it would probably destroy both sides.
No westward expansion of the US means that by 1860, slaveholding states make up about half of the population, instead of OTL's less than 1/3rd. Obviously that means TTL's slaveholding plantation owners would have a lot more influence than in OTL.
Max Sinister
Banned
However, the potential conflict about slavery would still be there, being pre-PoD. As others said, if the South won't secede about it, the North will.