U.S. Breaks Up Before/During Constitution?

I've been thinking about this topic recently.....how and when could the united states balkanize during its very early years? What would be a good POD for this to have them split up. I'm not thinking one country for each state either, maybe like New England, Carolina, New York, and Georgia, with a rump US in the middle. Or something along those lines. also, what would be the effects of such a breakup, both in North America and worldwide (specifically I was wondering how the French revolution might change, and the possibility of an independent Louisiana). Anyone have any ideas?
 

TFSmith121

Banned
The thing is, that after having been in the front lines

I've been thinking about this topic recently.....how and when could the united states balkanize during its very early years? What would be a good POD for this to have them split up. I'm not thinking one country for each state either, maybe like New England, Carolina, New York, and Georgia, with a rump US in the middle. Or something along those lines. also, what would be the effects of such a breakup, both in North America and worldwide (specifically I was wondering how the French revolution might change, and the possibility of an independent Louisiana). Anyone have any ideas?

The thing is, that after having been in the front lines of multiple conflicts between the British and French over the imperial periphery in North America, they understood power politics - the image below dates from 1754:



The founding generation in the US understood the strategic realities of the world they lived in, after all; they managed to negotiate it so well that by 1848, all of seven decades after the Revolution had ended, they essentially controlled the continent.

They were not fools.

Best,
 

TFSmith121

Banned
Impossible?

Hmm... you're saying its basically impossible to have a balkalized U.S. so early?

Impossible?

Well, considering they'd seen (and helped get) the French essentially thrown out of North America in large part because of a lack of anything approaching a united policy by France towards the Western Hemisphere, and been able to throw the British out (essentially) even with what amounted to a low order civil war between patriots and loyalists fought as part and parcel of the Revolution, and were well aware of the weaknesses of government under the Articles of Confederation (there's a reason the Constitutional Convention was called, after all) and had dealt with crises like Shay's Rebellion, it does seem rather short-sighted, don't you think?

I mean, given that these are the same individuals (Washington, Adams, Jefferson, Franklin, Hamilton, etc) who managed to win both the war and the peace with reagrds to the Revolution, it would seems to hand them all a fairly large idiot ball...

Best,
 
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B-29_Bomber

Banned
Honestly I never understood the idea that if the US Constitution fails to be written that the Confederation would de facto and de jure fall apart.


More likely the Articles continues to limp on as a largely useless organization except as a defensive pact until some outside power tries to invade a member state and the others fail to act.
 
I've been thinking about this topic recently.....how and when could the united states balkanize during its very early years? What would be a good POD for this to have them split up. I'm not thinking one country for each state either, maybe like New England, Carolina, New York, and Georgia, with a rump US in the middle. Or something along those lines. also, what would be the effects of such a breakup, both in North America and worldwide (specifically I was wondering how the French revolution might change, and the possibility of an independent Louisiana). Anyone have any ideas?
Vermont after the Revolution, and Rhode Island after the Constitution nearly went their own ways.

I've seen some speculation on here about the Carolinas and Georgia going their own way if the Revolution ends before the Articles of Confederation. Going forward from that, the Federalist/Abolitionist ideas could dominate the remainder.

Immediately pertinent though is what happens to the Indian Reserve? Might be even uglier for the tribes in the Mississippi Territory, or better even. Troubles with Spain too.
 
Honestly I never understood the idea that if the US Constitution fails to be written that the Confederation would de facto and de jure fall apart.


More likely the Articles continues to limp on as a largely useless organization except as a defensive pact until some outside power tries to invade a member state and the others fail to act.

Well, but what happens when disputes between two states get heated enough that war breaks out?

The AoC was a failed system, and was essentially un-amendable. Requiring unanimity? Ouch. The central government had no power, and no money.

No, I rather suspect that if the Founding Fathers hadn't cheated and ignored the AoC, writing the wholly new document instead, that the US WOULD have balkanized. There just wasn't enough structure to hold them together.
 

TFSmith121

Banned
Plenty of foreign threats, however...

Well, but what happens when disputes between two states get heated enough that war breaks out?

The AoC was a failed system, and was essentially un-amendable. Requiring unanimity? Ouch. The central government had no power, and no money.

No, I rather suspect that if the Founding Fathers hadn't cheated and ignored the AoC, writing the wholly new document instead, that the US WOULD have balkanized. There just wasn't enough structure to hold them together.

Plenty of foreign threats, however... The British to the north, the Spanish to the south, the French out there over the horizon.

And the trend, generally, in the period was for consolidation, not Balkanization.

Best,
 

Lateknight

Banned
Plenty of foreign threats, however... The British to the north, the Spanish to the south, the French out there over the horizon.

And the trend, generally, in the period was for consolidation, not Balkanization.

Best,

Not in rest of the Americas all the other old colonies of European powers separated there's not a grand Colombia too nor a United Central America that could been America.
 

TFSmith121

Banned
The Spanish Empire, however, was already divided

Not in rest of the Americas all the other old colonies of European powers separated there's not a grand Colombia too nor a United Central America that could been America.


The Spanish Empire, however, was already divided into the various viceroyalties (New Spain, La Plata, Peru, etc) which - generally - hung together, with exceptions for geography ... Brazil also hung together, as did (FWIW) BNA.

Central America has substantial topographic divides, which are, in large part, why the Union broke up. Same for Gran Colombia. The U.S. - of the same period - did not.

Best,
 
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TFSmith121

Banned
None of whom ever amassed much of a following, however

There was a sincere threat of the New England states seceding and taking the entire north (plus Maryland) with them in 1786, dividing the Union at the Potomac River. This was the genesis of the Essex Junto.

https://books.google.com/books?id=y...south to the potomac" "patrick henry"&f=false

http://founders.archives.gov/?q=separate confederacy&s=1111311111&sa=&r=68&sr=

http://founders.archives.gov/documents/Madison/01-09-02-0036

None of whom ever amassed much of a following, however.

Best,
 

Lateknight

Banned
The Spanish Empire, however, was already divided into the various viceryalties (New Spain, La Plata, Peru, etc) which - generally - hung together, with exceptions for geography ... Brazil also hung together, as did (FWIW) BNA.

Central America has substantial topographic divides, which are, in large part, why the Union broke up. Same for Gran Colombia. The U.S. - of the same period - did not.

Best,

The USA was also divided into various colonies so times based on geography. some would argue back then that the western portion of the US today's Midwest should should be a independent region I remember one scheme with traitor general who employed by the Spanish to do create such a new country.
 

TFSmith121

Banned
Yeah, but the colonies were all smaller than the

The USA was also divided into various colonies so times based on geography. some would argue back then that the western portion of the US today's Midwest should should be a independent region I remember one scheme with traitor general who employed by the Spanish to do create such a new country.


Yeah, but the British colonies were all smaller than the Spanish vice royalties and so less viable as potential nation states. The Southwest Conspiracy was about as significant a threat as the Hartford Convention - keystone conspirators.

Best,
 
Yeah, but the British colonies were all smaller than the Spanish vice royalties and so less viable as potential nation states. The Southwest Conspiracy was about as significant a threat as the Hartford Convention - keystone conspirators.

Best,

I think you hit on a good point; the US was operating in the shadow of the Polish Partitions, the War of Bavarian Succession, the fate of Corsica, etc. They knew small divided powers were lunch for hostile monarchies.
 
I assume that 13 states each going their own way is near-ASB.

But what about

a) a <13-member federation, ie some states simply not joining, because they feel they have no reason to do so.

b) two (ore even more) separate sectional federations if the differences (debt, western expansion, slavery, tariffs) seem insurmountable?
 

TFSmith121

Banned
Yep; the war of the three kingdoms/English Civil war

I think you hit on a good point; the US was operating in the shadow of the Polish Partitions, the War of Bavarian Succession, the fate of Corsica, etc. They knew small divided powers were lunch for hostile monarchies.

True; they also knew failing non-monarchies and even unified states were ripe for dictators and returned monarchs; the war of the three kingdoms/English civil war was a key example of semi-representative government gone bad... And Prestonpans was in living memory in the 1770s and 1780s.

The founding generation were not bumpkins; they were well-educated, generally well-travelled, and had been on the front lines of the great Anglo-French confrontation and had maneuvered successfully through the rocks and shoals the Revolution, working quite successfully with multiple European powers for independence.

They were all well aware of the type of world they lived in...

Best,
 
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