U-20 fires a dud

I've read that a rather high percentage of compressed air-driven torpedoes in World War I were duds in that they failed to explode on impact. Suppose the fish loosed by the U-20 at the Lusitania turned out to be one of those duds?

I'd bet the impact would have been heard throughout the ship, and possibly felt (though I'm not sure how much the hull and the water would have damped the vibrations), leading to a "what was that?" reaction with consensus opinion arriving at the conclusion of a dud torpedo, given the knowledge that U-boats were active in the area. It wouldn't have been confirmed, however, until the Lusitania went into dry dock for maintenance when someone would have seen the dent in the hull--assuming that an unexploded torpedo had enough kinetic energy to make a dent in ship plate.

Assuming that the conclusion was a dud torpedo impact, I'd guess U-boats would have been relatively scarce in those same waters for a while, since the Royal Navy would step up vigilance. Probably, in the US, it might have swung opinion away from the Central Powers, although not necessarily to the Entente (it would have been interesting to see what noted German proponent H. L. Mencken would have said).

Thoughts?
 
... Probably, in the US, it might have swung opinion away from the Central Powers, although not necessarily to the Entente (it would have been interesting to see what noted German proponent H. L. Mencken would have said).

Thoughts?

The Lusitania was well used by the warhawks in the US, but was not essential. Other US citizens drowned on other torpedoed ships. German diplomatic blundering, such as the Zimmerman telegram sufficed. The Black Tom Island fire & explosion was popularly supposed to be German sabotaged, tho for political reasons Wilsons administration officially suppressed the idea & evidence. The bottom line is that Wilson changed his attitude & became prowar, letting loose the war hawks and Germanophobes. Supporting them with the prestige, funds, and organization the executive office could muster. The US went to war because Wilson & his staff wanted to. They cherry picked their reasons & the Lusitania was just a handy news story to rationalize with. Absent that there were lots of other stories to use.
 

SsgtC

Banned
I'd bet the impact would have been heard throughout the ship, and possibly felt (though I'm not sure how much the hull and the water would have damped the vibrations), leading to a "what was that?" reaction with consensus opinion arriving at the conclusion of a dud torpedo
Don't count on it. Olympic was hit by a dud during WWI and no one ever noticed until the ship was dry docked at the end of the war and a dent with a crack in the center was found.
 
Do you mean to imply that American Opinion was pro Central powers at the time?
Not at all: that was never the prevailing opinion in the US. At the time of the sinking of the Lusitania, for example, the bulk of editorial opinion favored neither side (I recall that from Diana Preston's Lusitania: An Epic Tragedy), with a small faction favoring the Entente and a much smaller faction favoring the Central Powers. Now, editorial opinion and public opinion aren't necessarily the same, so likely there was something more of a pro-CP sentiment among the residents of, say, Milwaukee, Cincinnati, Baltimore, or any number of other substantially German locales. I'm suggesting a diminution of pro-CP sentiment, such as it was at the time.
 
I imagine a little later another liner would be hit, the Germans offer excuses, justifications, compensations and promises as in OTL so not much changes.

In 1917 the Germans have to decide as in OTL either decide to do unrestricted warfare (triggering war) or keep up with prize rules (keeping USA neutral).

In hindsight, the Germans probably should have started off small in 1915, done unrestricted submarine warfare only in the med, southern north sea, western channel, prize rules elsewhere, which would avoid provoking America and keep this up indefinitely, without the cessation of operations by Scheer in 1916 etc, keeping America out but increasing the shipping loss percentages over time.
 
I imagine a little later another liner would be hit, the Germans offer excuses, justifications, compensations and promises as in OTL so not much changes.

Might depend on how many fatalities.

The Lusitania was exceptional in that over 100 Americans died. Had there been no Lusitania, and later sinkings involved only two or three American deaths - which, iirc was more typical in such cases - would these have made the same impact w/o the Lusitania having happened first?
 
Might depend on how many fatalities.

The Lusitania was exceptional in that over 100 Americans died. Had there been no Lusitania, and later sinkings involved only two or three American deaths - which, iirc was more typical in such cases - would these have made the same impact w/o the Lusitania having happened first?

Pretty much this, as it's important to note that even IOTL Wilson was inclined to first try arming merchant ships as opposed to outright going to war in 1917 until persuaded otherwise by his cabinet.
 
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