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In terms of short term changes from OTL, to France and the European balance of power, which of these two scenarios has more potential?
Napoleon never returns from Elba, or dies attempting to return to France (or to power -- maybe one of the soldiers takes him up on the offer to "shoot your emperor"); whatever the case, the Hundred Days Campaign does not happen
Napoleon defeats the British and Prussians at Waterloo -- only to be defeated, in turn, by the Austrians and/or Russians not too long after; the Bourbons are also still restored.
If possible, I'd ask the plausibility of these scenarios as given to be set aside here; there are plenty of other threads, for example, debating what actually would have happened had Napoleon won at Waterloo, so this thread doesn't have to get into whether he stood a real chance of re-establishing himself as Emperor, getting Europe to accept this, and/or stopping the restoration.