Two Waterloo Options (poll)

Which has more AH potential?

  • no Hundred Days

    Votes: 55 64.0%
  • Wellington defeated

    Votes: 31 36.0%

  • Total voters
    86

Saphroneth

Banned
The thing you need to take away from how everyone reacted during the Hundred Days was that everyone was at daggers-drawn - but when Napoleon returned from Elba they all pretty much instantly buried their differences and teamed up to take him down. He was that much of a threat as far as they were concerned.
 
The thing you need to take away from how everyone reacted during the Hundred Days was that everyone was at daggers-drawn - but when Napoleon returned from Elba they all pretty much instantly buried their differences and teamed up to take him down. He was that much of a threat as far as they were concerned.

And the effect lasted a long time. It would be 1854 before any of the major powers went to war with another - and it mightn't have happened even then had a Bonaparte not returned to power in France.

When you hear anyone asking "WI Napoleon had united Europe,?" you could respond that to a considerable extent he did unite it - against himself.
 
No Return probably has more potential to disrupt things as it means people don't go OFUCK and start working together again.


But I'd also say it's hard to defeat both the Prussians and the British-Dutch at Waterloo - Wellington had chosen too good a position, and indeed assigned a fair fraction of his army to cover the ways the position could be turned. You could get Wellington to backpedal by making a turning movement, but you couldn't destroy his army or seriously defeat it that way; if you have the attacks on Mont-saint-Jean pressed more vigorously from the start, you could have a British retreat after a defeat but then you've got a necessarily tired army having to right wheel and also face the Prussians (some of which are curling in behind the French rear).

Frankly I just think Napoleon wasn't good enough to pull it off any more - his operational art had suffered, or rather his ability to pick subordinates for command who shared his operational art (such as it was) had suffered.

So, for two reasons, no return from Elba.
You could always make the PoD, that Wellington gets sick just a little while before Waterloo. Hardly ASB territory. In those days even if you were rich and powerful, lots of stuff that's trivial for modern medicine could get you easily. Have him replaced by a real life version of Sir Henry Simmerson of Sharpe infamy and you end up with a British defeat easily enough.

Nonetheless I also agree with the consensus so far that "no return", has the more interesting mid-term butterflies.
 
You could always make the PoD, that Wellington gets sick just a little while before Waterloo. Hardly ASB territory. In those days even if you were rich and powerful, lots of stuff that's trivial for modern medicine could get you easily. Have him replaced by a real life version of Sir Henry Simmerson of Sharpe infamy and you end up with a British defeat easily enough.
The thing is, you have to look through the actual generals on the ground to see who replaces him. There aren't any Sir Henry's present. Not with the rank and experience to take command.

I mean, Daddy Hill may not be Wellington, but I think he would have been competent enough to keep the bulk of the army intact if forced back from the ridge. The French might draw a curse out of him, mind. And I think he'd get the gig. Or maybe Picton, who was also far to competent to be compared to a Simmerson. Harry Paget didn't have the battlefield experience to demand command of such a large force, thanks to cuckolding Wellington's brother, and while his heavy cavalry got smashed, he was still a Hell of a lot more of a soldier and officer than Sharpe's nemesis. And even if the Prince of Orange was as bad as Cornwell paints him (he wasn't), he wouldn't get command over the British Corps commanders, no matter his rank.

I think Hill and/or Picton can preserve the army, so it would be a withdrawal rather than Napoleon smashing the British (and allies) before rounding on the Prussians (then the Austrians, then the Russians, then...)

I think 'No Hundred Days' is the more interesting PoD.
 
A "No Hundred Days" timeline is pretty interesting but I am not sure the consequences are necessarily immediate (as the Treaty of Vienna has already been signed). However, the British got a lot of prestige from the perception of Wellington's Victory, so that might be interesting longer term.
 
I was under the impression that most of the Polish-Saxon Crisis had been settled by the time Napoleon returned and everyone was mostly posturing at that point.
 
You could always make the PoD, that Wellington gets sick just a little while before Waterloo. Hardly ASB territory. In those days even if you were rich and powerful, lots of stuff that's trivial for modern medicine could get you easily. Have him replaced by a real life version of Sir Henry Simmerson of Sharpe infamy and you end up with a British defeat easily enough.

Nonetheless I also agree with the consensus so far that "no return", has the more interesting mid-term butterflies.

Is weather ASB? If it hadn't rained the night before, Napoleon would have attacked earlier in the day, before the Prussians could have arrived.
 

Saphroneth

Banned
Is weather ASB? If it hadn't rained the night before, Napoleon would have attacked earlier in the day, before the Prussians could have arrived.
But that also has some other consequences - the Prussians were delayed by the weather too, because they were trying to get down bad roads.
In good marching conditions they arrive earlier as well.

It's an interesting WI, but I don't think you get a destruction - at worst you get a withdrawal by the British down the forest roads.
 
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