Two Japans-Old and New?

Does anyone think it is possible to have Japan split into two states around the 1860s-1870s? For example, one centered around the Emperor and one around the Shogun? Or perhaps a Meiji state and a samurai/isolationist state? I was thinking along the US Civil War line, but I don't know what I can and can't apply here.

So, could we have a modernizing nation and one that remained with bakufu? If so, where would each one be located? How would they be formed, and led by who? Would you need a POD much earlier than the 1850s, 1860s, or 1870s? Where would the center of power for each lie?

Thanks a bunch in advance, even if the answer is an overwhelming no.
 

maverick

Banned
So, could we have a modernizing nation and one that remained with bakufu?

The Shogunate was the one that started modernizing and bringing foreign advisors, so no on that front.

As for the broader question, you could have the Republic of Ezo survive, if for some reason the Russians, French or British move in fast enough and keep the Meiji forces from crushing it.

Does anyone think it is possible to have Japan split into two states around the 1860s-1870s?

Equal states? probably not, maybe with some special circumstances, but someone has to win the Boshin war eventually.
 
The Shogunate was the one that started modernizing and bringing foreign advisors, so no on that front.
I always found this rather hilariously ironic. They launch the war angry about the foreigners etc. get into power and realize, "The bakufu were right, the only way to stop the foreigners is to modernize." But Satsuma revolts for various reasons. Maybe if the western powers aid Saigo Takamori? It wasn't like it was in Last Samurai after all, they only used swords when they ran out of bullets. Of course Saigo would have to want their help. So I suppose that would be the PoD, Saigo decides to fight to win and then a stalemate develops.

Regardless, I don't think it's possible without outside intervention and even if there is, it's going to essentially be a bleeding sore on what remains of Japan. They will revanche against that breakaway part endlessly.
 
Thanks everyone.

I wanted to use the Boshin War, I just wasn't sure if I needed a POD before then to get two states out of it.

I know that there's no way to have two permanant states result from the conflict, but I was interested in the chance of two Japans for a little while. The main point was if a middle course-two states-was possible (for a time) rather than have Meiji or Bakufu win out.

So, if there were two states, where would the line be drawn? I'm seeing Meiji Japan as Kyushu, Shikoku and Southern Honshu and Bakufu Japan as Northern Honshu and Hokkaido. Or maybe if the Bakufu is the northern state, the Ainu wouldn't be obliterated in Hokkaido and you get two Japans and an Ainu Hokkaido (for a little while...). The capital of Meji Japan would be Tokyo/Edo, but I have no idea for Bakufu Japan.

Any thoughts? Do I have them reversed?
 
Just avoid the European colonization in South East Asia , I think Kyushu and Okinawa might be a separate state if that's the case..
 

maverick

Banned
This is probably hard to actually accomplish, but maybe if the Toba-Fushimi campaign is not as screwed up for the Shogun as it was IOTL, or if he is able to hold the Imperial Forces at Ueno, Koshu-Katsunuma or Utsonomiya Castle and halt their offensives, then the Meiji forces could lose momentum and the Northern Alliance can consolidate and a rump Shogunate survive for a few years with foreign help before a second civil war puts the Shogunate out of its misery.
 
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