Two fewer deaths in Augustan Rome

We don't discuss this period enough, I feel. So:

The marriage of Augustus' daughter Julia to his stepson Tiberius in 12BC quickly soured, which may in large part have been down to the death of their only daughter, who was either stillborn or died in infancy: I forget which. Anyway, what if this daughter is born a boy, and then survives and prospers, allowing Tiberius and Julia's marriage to continue. Julia remains a permanent fixture on the Roman scene, and may deliver Tiberius more children, although for simplicity's sake let's assume that either they're daughters and/or they die young.

So, that's all well and good. Now, though, let us assume that Gaius Caesar, Julia's son by Agrippa who had been adopted by Augustus as a boy, also survives after suffering his wound in Armenia in 4AD. Gaius' personality, from the scraps we know, seems to have suffered somewhat due to his being spoilt by Augustus as a teenager, so by Augustus' death, which we'll see is postponed by a year to AD15 due to a less stressful succession-hunt, he'll be something of an arrogant thirty five year old.

Augustus now has three potential heirs: an experienced general in the form of Tiberius, and not one, but two adult grandsons (probably with children of their own at this point) in Gaius Caesar and Tiberius' son who I'll call Julius Claudius Nero. How do things play out from here?
 
I don't think Tiberius' marriage to Julia was ever happy. He really didn't want to divorce his other wife (why does her name escape me? Agrippina?).

As for Gaius Caesar I remember reading or hearing somewhere that after he sustained the wound, he sent a letter to Augustus, saying that he did not want to succeed him when he died. So that may be a problem if he survives the wound.

Edit: Depending on how Julius turns out, I imagine Livia would be influential in lobbying for him. There's also Agrippa Posthumus and Germanicus, though they aren't much candidates for succession (though Agrippa Posthumus might prove a problem on Augustus' death, which is why he was eliminated quickly OTL).
 
As far as the succession is concerned, the decisive point is : does Julia still participate in a plot against her father Augustus as she did in 2 BCE ? If yes, then there will be no hesitation for Augustus. And he will act as he did later against his granddaughter Julia the younger when she and her husband Lucius Aemilius Paullus plotted for the succession : her son (one of Augustus' great grandsons) was discarded.

And then, you have to take into account that Augustus did not adopt his third grandson Agrippa Postumus untel Gaius and Lucius were dead. He did not want to adopt all his grandsons. And he did not like Tiberius. Tiberius'personnality was not pelassent, on the contrarc of his brocher Drusus'. That is probably why Julia the elder did not like her husband Tiberius except for a short time.
If Gaius lives, then he is the heir.
 
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