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This maybe too early to post here, but the 2016 election is over for better or worse. I do not want to argue its merits, but ask opinions on two possible alternates:

1) Barack Obama, for whatever reason, decides not to run in 2008. Given the popularity of Bush 43 at that point, I think Hillary would have beaten McCain (I think any reasonably competent Democrat would have won, McCain was a sacrificial offering).

2) Ambassador Stevens gets sick and does not go to Benghazi, so there are no high profile deaths. This means that there is no series of Benghazi investigations and Hillary's email arrangements never come to light.

How does this affect the elections in 2008, 2012, and 2016?

I think in option 1 Hillary wins in 2008. If she proceeds with the same policies as Obama, she might well lose to Romney in 2012. Alternatively, if she "focuses like a laser on the economy" and there is an earlier recovery, she wins in 2012. Either way, Obama probably runs in 2016 and has a better chance of winning in 2016 than OTL Hillary.

I think in option 2, Hillary wins in 2016. Despite her campaigning problems, it was close enough that she could probably pull it off.

Note, I am not commenting on or interested in the merits of the actual 2016 election, just the opinions as to whether my reasoning seems sound for the two alternatives.

Moderator note: If this is too early to discuss here, please move to the appropriate chat topic.
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