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I’d like to propose the two following Pearl Harbor scenarios.

This isn’t actually “my” scenario; rather it was done as part of a two part Unsolved History episode entitled, “Myths of Pearl Harbor.” The first scenario was a war game simulation run by noted war game designer (i.e. Harpoon), author, and naval historian, Larry Bond. The teams were made up of naval strategists and military historians. In the scenario the assumption is no surprise attack on Pearl Harbor. Admiral Kimmel has enough warning and enough time to act. In the scenario that was played, the team playing the Americans succeeds in getting the Fleet out of Pearl Harbor and engages the IJN. An air/surface naval engagement follows. During the battle I believe 2 battleships are sunk on the American side. The IJN loses one carrier and at least a hundred planes before it retires. Several other battleships and cruisers are also damaged.

What was emphasized by the participants after the battle was that the battleships that are sunk are not recoverable nor are their crews. Unlike Pearl Harbor in our time line these two battleships sink in deep water and are not salvageable. In addition there are more causalities because sailors are not able to simply go over the side and swim to shore.

Given the above scenario does the Pacific War play out differently? [P.S. If anyone has a better memory of the actual losses in the war game please correct me, I believe the above results are accurate.]

There is a second scenario that I’d like to explore here: One major weakness of the above scenario is that both teams were played by Americans. I don’t think the mindset of Admiral Nagumo was considered as part of this war game. Nagumo was extremely cautious. So, assume a second WI based on the same presuppositions. Except that this time, Nagumo on learning that the Americans are coming out of Pearl Harbor cancels the attack and withdraws back to Japan. Again, what happens next? Certainly, war is still declared in the Pacific but now the Americans have not lost their naval/air power or their battleships. How does this affect the Pacific War?

Geon
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