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1. If the Black Hand succeeds in assassinating General (and Governor of Bosnia and Herzegovina) Oskar Potiorek in early 1914, then would Austria-Hungary use this assassination as an excuse to attack Serbia and thus to spark World War I?

2. If the Black Hand's assassination attempts on Franz Ferdinand on June 28, 1914 would have all failed, then would these assassination attempts themselves have been enough for Austria-Hungary to use as an excuse to attack Serbia and thus to spark World War I?

Any thoughts on this?
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