I will admit this is due to recent work on the related articles on Wikipedia:
- James Blaine and John Sherman were the main candidates of the Anti-Grant forces at the convention, and after a flurry of ballots that showed little to no movement among the delegates, with no one remotely close to the votes required, a number of their delegates met to hammer out a deal. Now, like just about every other deal of this time, neither wished to bow out to the other, despite the fact that Blaine had around 280 delegates in his wing compared to Sherman's 90. There was some haggling, but ultimately nothing came of it. But let us suppose some sort of deal can be reached, with Sherman agreeing to go for the Vice Presidential nomination with Blaine's support?
- My own thoughts? Blaine could pull it off given that under such a scenario, he would be able to pull within 30, maybe even 20 votes away from securing the nomination. Once this becomes apparent, either a number of delegates shift to Blaine through corrections on that ballot, or shift to Blaine on the following ballot.
- The end result? Blaine would lose the election, in large part given he could much more easily be connected to corruption than Garfield, or even Arthur, and the Democrats would not even need to lie about it (such as with the Morey Letter). It wouldn't have taken much to swing the election as it was, and given Blaine's negatives combined with the OTL situation, I judge it may be a Democratic victory by as many as four points.
- My own thoughts? Blaine could pull it off given that under such a scenario, he would be able to pull within 30, maybe even 20 votes away from securing the nomination. Once this becomes apparent, either a number of delegates shift to Blaine through corrections on that ballot, or shift to Blaine on the following ballot.
- Directly related to the above, in which delegates from the Blaine and Sherman camps tried to work out a compromise. James Blaine would later come to a realization that he wasn't going to claim the nomination in large part because of his corruption issues given how recent they were, and how the issue of corruption formed a major component of the current political atmosphere. He would later bow out in favor of Garfield. Now, suppose he comes to this epiphany earlier, and offers to give Sherman the nomination in return for a spot in his Administration?
- My take? Ulysses S Grant manages to win the nomination on the next ballot. The problem here is that while Sherman's delegates would indeed move towards Blaine by the bushel, the same could not be said about Blaine's delegates to Sherman. At the same time, Grant already had secured around 308 delegates, so at best he needs to swing maybe 70 delegates, and most of those Blaine delegates in the West, around 30 or so, would go to Grant right then and there. Looking at the remaining 245 or so Blaine delegates, it shouldn't be that hard to pick out another 40, but even were Grant to fall short on this ballot (of which I would doubt), then he likely would be confirmed on the next.
- The General Election? I have no idea. While Grant to be tied to corruption as effectively as Blaine, he still formed the kind of persona figure that overcame that to a degree, though not wholly given the scale of the scandals. The issue of a Third Term was not as significant as it is made out to be, but it would have a minor effect. In my mind, it is possible for either Grant or Hancock to win the election, dependent on minor changes during its conduct.