Twisted WWII

Finland is an Ally; Nationalist China is Axis. (Both are a bit unlikely, China probably the more so, but far from ASB.)

What happens? The military situation isn't changed hugely (especially since the Sino-Japanese War is all but guarenteed to go on) but the diplomatic situation is twisted somethign awful.
 

Anaxagoras

Banned
Finland could have been an ally. Had they lasted a bit longer in 1940, it's likely that the British and the French would have intervened on their side, thus bringing the USSR into the war on the German side. IIRC, that was what people at the time thought was most likely to happen.
 
No war between Japan and China? Or...China fights an independant Japan, whilst fgihting off British Incrusions into India? Japan joins allies. China is steamrolled by Russians, British and Japan. No America, but no pacific war. Japan aids the Russians (although a bit unlikely due to Japan's anti-communism). Japs relieve stalingrad =) Stalin can move his safety divisions from the east. Stalin doesn't chuck away soldiers fighting Finland, when the Nazis try to invade BANG.
Germany is dead.
 
Finland could have been an ally. Had they lasted a bit longer in 1940, it's likely that the British and the French would have intervened on their side, thus bringing the USSR into the war on the German side.

Quite so. There is also another, more unlikely option. Let's say that Finland falls as Stalin expected by the end of January and the Kuusinen government is installed in Helsinki. What if now, for one reason or another, Finland is not incorporated into the Soviet Union in the same way as the Baltics, but stays as a nominally independent Peoples' Republic allied with the USSR until Barbarossa? In this case Finland could be considered, at least on paper, an Ally on its own right.

I know the idea is a bit short on plausibility and would likely need a earlier PoD or a few of them. Why would Stalin want to keep up the charade of Finnish independence? Maybe he would hope a major part of the Finnish Left will see that the Red state of 1918 is being reanimated and thus approves the new government, weakening a possible guerrilla war and possibly even flocking to the ranks of the "Finnish Peoples' Army". Making the country easier to control would make it possible to reduce the amount of troops needed to occupy it, freeing them to be sent south. Stalin knows perfectly well Kuusinen et al. know they are on a short leash: giving his Finnish puppets some time to try to sort out the remaining bourgeois sentiment (with Red Army support, of course) would cost him nothing; delaying overt annexation would also lessen foreign outrage towards the takeover.
 
No war between Japan and China? Or...China fights an independant Japan, whilst fgihting off British Incrusions into India? Japan joins allies. China is steamrolled by Russians, British and Japan. No America, but no pacific war. Japan aids the Russians (although a bit unlikely due to Japan's anti-communism). Japs relieve stalingrad =) Stalin can move his safety divisions from the east. Stalin doesn't chuck away soldiers fighting Finland, when the Nazis try to invade BANG.
Germany is dead.

Quite so. There is also another, more unlikely option. Let's say that Finland falls as Stalin expected by the end of January and the Kuusinen government is installed in Helsinki. What if now, for one reason or another, Finland is not incorporated into the Soviet Union in the same way as the Baltics, but stays as a nominally independent Peoples' Republic allied with the USSR until Barbarossa? In this case Finland could be considered, at least on paper, an Ally on its own right.

I know the idea is a bit short on plausibility and would likely need a earlier PoD or a few of them. Why would Stalin want to keep up the charade of Finnish independence? Maybe he would hope a major part of the Finnish Left will see that the Red state of 1918 is being reanimated and thus approves the new government, weakening a possible guerrilla war and possibly even flocking to the ranks of the "Finnish Peoples' Army". Making the country easier to control would make it possible to reduce the amount of troops needed to occupy it, freeing them to be sent south. Stalin knows perfectly well Kuusinen et al. know they are on a short leash: giving his Finnish puppets some time to try to sort out the remaining bourgeois sentiment (with Red Army support, of course) would cost him nothing; delaying overt annexation would also lessen foreign outrage towards the takeover.

I was thinking more "Germany supports Chiang over the Japanese" and "expedition to Finland in the winter war" respectively, but interesting ideas.

If the Kuusinen gov't can make it to 1945 they're probably OK, just enrolled in the WP like all the other EEuropean states. I'm not sure them being a Russian puppet would change the war much - the russians don't need to keep as many troops on the fronteir but they have to garrison it instead, so it probably amounts to the same thing in the end.
 
Finland could have been an ally. Had they lasted a bit longer in 1940, it's likely that the British and the French would have intervened on their side, thus bringing the USSR into the war on the German side.
I would say that this scenario is more likely to bring Allies in the same camp with Germany, as Stalin was considered a much greater danger than Hitler. OK, may be not in the same camp, more likely something like very cold co-existence, but still...

What if now, for one reason or another, Finland is not incorporated into the Soviet Union in the same way as the Baltics, but stays as a nominally independent Peoples' Republic allied with the USSR until Barbarossa?
I would say this is pretty likely. Despite all this "communist union" bluff, before 1944 Stalin was incredibly meticulous with keeping relationships between USSR and marionettes similar to what they used to be pre-1917. Baltics were but mere Gubernias of the Russian Empire. So he incorporated them into USSR, actually raising their status to full-constituent Republics. Inner Mongolia and Tuva were "zones of special interests" of Russian Empire in 1911-1917. They had been kept formally independent post-1917 (this pretense was abandoned as far as Tuva is concerned, but Mongolia had been formally independent all along). Finland was an Autonomous Duchy in Russian Empire, so I think it is very possible (I would say chances are in 60-75% range) that Kuusinen will lead "independent" Finnish People's Republic.

I'm not sure them being a Russian puppet would change the war much - the russians don't need to keep as many troops on the fronteir but they have to garrison it instead, so it probably amounts to the same thing in the end.
Soviet Finland prevents Baltic from being "Reich's inner lake" in 1942-1944 and seriously messes up ore shipments from Sweden. I wouldn't call it "crucial", but it is "visible change".
 
Soviet Finland prevents Baltic from being "Reich's inner lake" in 1942-1944 and seriously messes up ore shipments from Sweden. I wouldn't call it "crucial", but it is "visible change".
Finland becoming Soviet satellite would almost definitely butterfly Sweden into Axis camp. This could be rather important. No Bohr escape to States, for example. Lots and lots of L60s for Germany.
 
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