Twilight of the Valkyries: A 20 July Plot TL

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Only if FDR survives,

Ignoring that the American leadership merely reflected the views of it's public. No successor is going to follow a substantially different policy towards the Soviets until the immediate task of winning the war in Europe and the Pacific is over with.

Stalin does nothing paranoid and rash

Like what? Accelerate the Eastern Front? That would be met with applause from the Anglo-Americans, as it would bring the war to an end faster. Repress the Poles? He did that OTL and the Anglo-Americans only raised some modest complaints.

and the Germans put the same level of effort as OTL fighting in the West and East and make the same or similar mistakes in the process.

The disruption and chaos from all the political infighting and domestic chaos is liable to weaken their effort and capacity to fight on both fronts. It will bring the war to an end sooner, but not substantially change where the borders lie at the end.

A case-in-point on this is the fact that several divisions worth of panzers were pulled from the Italian theatre in late-July and sent to the Eastern Front, proving quite handy in stemming the Soviet drive in Poland, East Prussia, and Hungary. ITTL, their liable to get caught up in the festering civil war and their lack of presence in the East will be... felt, to say the least.
 
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I forgot about one more wild card being Churchill. He was very much not happy about the US plans, though I don't know if he would upset things when he thought after he could convince his nation and the world to unite against Stalin and push the Red Army out of Eastern Europe... right before his nation booted him from office.
 
I forgot about one more wild card being Churchill. He was very much not happy about the US plans, though I don't know if he would upset things when he thought after he could convince his nation and the world to unite against Stalin and push the Red Army out of Eastern Europe... right before his nation booted him from office.

He wouldn't. Because he needs the cooperation of everyone else to upset things and not be booted out of office. Suffice to say, he won't have that.
 
Part VII: Guderian's Junta:

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Albert Speer and Field Marshal Milch in one of their first official appearances after July 20th

July 23rd to July 26th, 1944
Across Germany

Several names have been proposed through the years by historiography to describe the strange government that took over Germany in the aftermath of the July 1944 Crisis[1], but one that has become oddly popular in use is that of "Guderian's Junta". Evidently enough, it was not percieved as being this in the final months after Second World War itself and the immediate period after it, but as more documents were recovered and more evidence resurged despite the purge in the files of Nazi Germany, it became evident just how much influence Guderian wielded on the government despie refusing to hold the officers of Reichspresident or Chancellor [2]. While the "Junta" Government clearly had no legal claim as a formal heir to Hitler's Government (and therefore had shakier ground than the Valkyrie plotters), it had been formed in the right place at the right time. Three to four days of unprecedent chaos had done nothing but to deliver a crush to the morale of the Wehrmacht, place the generals and the key figures of the Reich (those still alive) in a permanent state of tension and, more concerning, both place the remaining allies of the Reich in a state of doubt over their alliances and showcase a key opportunity for the Allies and the Soviet Union to press ahead as it looked like Germany would crumble without the Führer. Having lost most of the figures that would have made plausible successors and with Himmler's standing in Prague looking more and more uncertain, commanders and party leaders alike were getting increasingly desperate for some degree of stability after the Berlin countercoup, whatever could be done to prevent a collapse of the front. It was because of this (and the never to be underestimated survival instinct) that those figures proved receptive to calls from those present at the meeting in July 23rd, embracing the pompous sounding "Salvation Government" against other reservations. Most of the German public would learn the new developments as a radio signal expanded through the nation on the night of July 23rd, a short speech from General Guderian, Reichminister Speer and General Fromm announcing that after crushing the Beck Putsch a new government had been formed with the ostensible purpose of saving Germany from collapse and defeat.

Key figures had been secured before hand, including men like Doenitz, Milch, Model and Kesselring, a combination of those who had been more hostile to Beck along with the large number of those who had attempted some degree of neutrality [3]. Assigning Schellenberg to the task of reopening contact lines with the foreign service and the rest of the world (giving the intelligence officer a chance to alert von Papen to evacuate Istanbul as soon as possible), Guderian left the task of immediate and swift repression to Heinrich "Gestapo" Müller. While the generals may not have appreciated Müller's known hostility to the officer corps, he was absolutely hostile to Himmler and the remnants of the Valkyrie plot, and his Gestapo was in all likelihood the sole organism in a position to act. As a result, during the first week hundreds of arrests were made across the German military due to links with the plotters and the SS, disloyalty to the new regime, or even, previous animosity against Guderian. Many of the Wehrkreis commanders and officers who had declared to Beck found many in their staff all too unwilling to go up against Guderian for a lost cause (and all too willing to rise in office), leading to the arrests of men like Wehrkreis commanders Generals Kienitz, Schwedler, Bieler, Schellert, Field Marshall von Witzleben and General Wagner (captured in Zossen and delivered to Berlin after General Thomale secured OKH's HQ), General Hoepner and Arthur Nebe (who never found enough troops to act against Himmler or counterattack on their own), and so on. Other arrests were bloodier, such as the need for troops from Wehrkreis I to storm the Wolf's Lair and crush the remnants of the 3rd Cavalry Brigade by July 25th (ending with the deaths of Colonel Boeselager and General Fellgiebel).

The capture of Berlin led to many individuals arrested by the Reserve Army to return to freedom (particularly the personnel of several Reichministries), the main exception being those linked to Himmer and some of Bormann's allies (seen as remarkably untrustworthy by Speer). It also led to figures in retirement to either wish to return to active service or be personally contacted by Guderian to return, such as Field Marshal von Rundstedt. Rundstedt in particular was a crucial addition, as the new Government in Berlin had learned of Kluge's peace overtures to Montgomery and the British Government and ties to Beck, making him unacceptable as CiC West. While most of the current fronts could be relied upon to second the government and the new general staff being assembled at Zossen, it was feared infiltration in the Western Front could easily lead to disaster, particularly if a separate surrender was attempted. While formal responses from the allies of Nazi Germany were yet to arrive (suspiciously so), the first country to act was Turkey, formally cutting diplomatic (but not intelligence) ties to Berlin on July 24th. It was reported Franz von Papen smiled at the news of his dismissal from President Inonü, taking the first train to Germany while trying to avoid capture from the British.

July 22nd to July 26th, 1944
Occupied France

In despair over the growing disaster in Germany and the imminent danger his troops would face, Field Marshall von Kluge, commanded an early retreat in some of the more endangered units in Normandy, as well as the redeployment of units in Southern France north or towards Italy despite the risks of allied air power being able to crush said units from the skies. This movement was taken in concert with Kluge's desperate offer of a ceasefire of any sorts, that Montogmery relayed to London and to Eisenhower's HQ by July 22nd. Eisenhower decided to drop any involvement on the matter as he percieved the decision to be a political one, putting the matter on the hands of the government and forcing Churchill to speak to Roosevelt. Both men, while personally encouraged by the demise of Hitler and expecting Germany to collapse much sooner than expected, were still bound by their resolve to only accept an unconditional surrender (Roosevelt more firm on the matter than his British counterpart), which meant not bothering to even consider proposals from the short-lived Beck government, a position which was seen as vindicated by Beck's swift downfall from "power"[4]. While debate went on longer than expected, Kluge was told in no uncertain terms that, rather than a negotiated surrended, he had the chance to surrender his army command. Kluge pondered on the matter as he tried to extricate his troops from what he saw as an increasingly hopeless situation, but in doing so wasted precious time.

Reappointed CiC of OB West exactly 22 days after his dismissal, Field Marshal von Rundstedt was sent by Guderian to France in July 24th along with General Siegfried Westphal, with strict orders to prevent a separate ceasefire in the Western Front and replace Kluge with any means at his disposal. In the meantime, taking advantage of his long time friendship to Sepp Dietrich, Guderian manages to reach the general despite Kluge's delayed instructions not to take orders from Berlin. As German troops begin to retreat to the Seine under attack by allied airpower (only marginally slowed by the still bad weather), Kluge fights the equivalent of a war of nerves as he tries to extract as many conditions from the Allies as possible, and the delay seals his fate. A meeting of the Seventh Army officers and Kluge at la Roche-Guyon ends in an ambush as soldiers storm the rooms, capturing Field Marshal Kluge, General Speidel and other conspirators on the command of Generals Hausser and Sepp Dietrich. It will emerge much later than Guderian was able to persuade Dietrich (who remained distrustful of Kluge) to switch sides on a number of conditions, including to spare and pardon Rommel.

The other officers involved in the coup fared no better, as in Paris General Blumentritt is contacted by Guderian and Rundstedt, and learns of Kluge and Stülpnagel's involvement in a coup [5]. Blumentritt, far more loyal to Rundstedt than to Kluge and fully aware that the last's position has become hopeless, turns the tables on the conspirators in Paris. Enlisting the help of the recovering 716th Static Infantry Division and his commander, General Wilhelm Richter[6], Blumentritt has Admiral Krancke and those officers arrested and not linked to the SS and the SD released, afterwhich Stülpnagel's office is attacked in order to secure his arrest. Stülpnagel, however, shots himself in the head. While in the aftermath Blumentritt will purposedly blur many of the actual events that took place in Paris and save the lives of several minor conspirators and pro-SS officers, Rundstedt is nonetheless able to install himself temporarily in Paris by July 26th, recieving the news that the surviving conspirator Alexander von Falkenhausen has been arrested in Brussels by his own officers and that Allied forces are landing in Brittany and prosecuting the offensive in Normany as German troops attempt to withdraw. The Western Front is in serious trouble.

July 23rd to July 29th, 1944
Bohemia and Moravia (SS) Protectorate

Despite the resounding success of the operation to assassinate Goering (and by extension Giesler and von Ribbentrop), further events on the key moments of July 22nd and July 23rd complicate Himmler's already desperate situation. Not only are his troops in Prague too few to attempt to hold the city, much less the whole protectorate, but Schellenberg has switched sides and Kaltenbrunner, deemed a target by Guderian's Panzer Force has been found and arrested. Even if attempts to mobilize Reserve Army units from the coup fail after Nebe and Hoepner's arrest, the radio message announcing the formation of the new military government remains uncompromising towards the SS, demanding the immediate surrender of Himmler and his men. Pressured by Reichsprotector Frank to stand his ground, Himmler is desperate to find a way out, but has lost most bargaining chips after the loss or disarmament of his best divisions and the capture of the concentration camps. With SS forces in Austria indentified and exterminated by General Ringel and Wehrkreis XVIII, Himmler does what he can to rally loyalists to his cause, even in the units in the Eastern Front. With more and more officers recognizing the new Berlin government as the only way out of the crisis, his efforts are often unsuccesful.

With Guderian and his new General Staff having ordered an offensive to start on July 25th-July26th, a hodgepodge mixture of Reserve Army units, nearby Hungarian and Slovakian troops and some of Kesselring's reserves storm Bohemia-Moravia from three different directions, the few SS troops available for defence being overrun rapidly despite fierce resistence. Himmler and Frank further panic when Luftwaffe units under Milch's orders set up the bombing of SS defense lines in Prague and the main government buildings, and by July 29th the Prague Offensive has led General Julius Ringel towards the outskirts of Prague. Resistance from isolated platoons will last for weeks, but the defences of the capital collapse as hundreds of Heer troops arrested by the SS are released. Ringel's men capture Reichsprotector Frank and Himmler as they attempt to flee the city in disguise, and relay the news to Berlin. Heinrich Himmler and the SS have been (mostly) neutralized, and to the irony of many, Himmler becomes the highest standing figure pre-July 20th to survive the turnmoil [7].

July 26th to July 31st, 1944
Across the Third Reich

Having countless matters to solve as Allied offensives resume their course and most of the Reich lines up behind Guderian, Speer and the generals, the last days of July have to be spent putting a government in place in order to prevent the collapse of the entire war effort, a possibility which looked all too close due to the morale hit and the possibility of Germany's allies trying to find ways to leave the war [8]. Particularly complicated was the issue of the higher echelons of the government, as Guderian and his newfound allies believed it would be for the best to split the office of Führer into a Presidency and the office of Chancellor, since it was evident no one was suitable for the larger post. With Guderian adamantly refusing any of the two offices, he nonetheless assumed full powers over the war effort as Supreme Commander of the Wehrmacht, the position he had always wanted and that Witzleben had dared to claim [9]. While originally went towards the possibility of a war hero taking the Presidency to inspire the troops and raise morale, but the obvious options weren't available. Grand Admiral Doenitz would not agree to take the office, and while Rommel was evidently the more effective choice in morale terms he was still badly wounded and in all probability linked to the Beck Putsch [10]. In the end, the generals settled for the figure they found less controversial (and probably less distasteful to the Allies) and more likely not to be a problem in conducting the war effort. Owing to his good relationship to men like Milch and Guderian himself, Albert Speer was offered the Presidency of the Reich, if only temporarily so [11].

The Chancellorship brought trouble as well, with some proposing a military figure once again and others insisting that it had to be loyal party figure, someone with at least some degree of diplomatic skill, or, if necessary, a useful puppet. It was around that time that former Chancellor Franz von Papen arrived in Berlin after a train ride from Istambul, and arranged a meeting via Schellenberg with President Speer, Guderian and the other key figures. Lobbying incessantly for the opportunity to make a mark once again, and persuading the group that the new government would benefit from either his experience or his rather particular set of skills, von Papen returned to the old schemes of his. With Count Schwerin von Krosigk refusing to be considered for the Chancellery, Papen had returned just in time to retake the stage after years of a "kind exile" in diplomatic missions around the world. Leaving some offices empty, placing temporary ministers in other positions, and moving up a number of generals close to Speer, Guderian or Fromm to the cabinet, a semblance of a government was at last formed by July 31st, where Albert Speer and Franz von Papen took the oath of office before the Reichstag (photographs carefully avoiding to picture the almost empty building). To the disbelief of many, the new government seemed to be almost hard to believe in comparison to what it had looked like ten days ago [12].
  • President of the Reich, and Armaments Minister: Albert Speer
  • Chancellor of the Reich: Franz von Papen
  • Party Minister: Philipp Bouhler
  • Interior Minister: General Bodewin Keitel
  • Foreign (and Finance) Minister: Graf Lutz Schwerin von Krosigk
With von Krosigk refusing the Vice-Chancellorship as well, the position was considered unnecesary for the time being and left vacant, as had been the case from 1934 to 1941. The key Party and Interior ministers were left to the young Philipp Bouhler, who had embraced the cause early, and General Bodewin Keitel (brother to the deceased Field Marshal), a firm Guderian ally.
  • Supreme Commander of the Wehrmacht: Field Marshal Heinz Guderian
  • Commander-in-Chief of the Army and Minister of War: General Friedrich Fromm
  • Commander-in-Chief of the Air Force: Field Marshal Erhard Milch
  • Commander-in-Chief of the Navy: Grand Admiral Karl Doenitz
  • Chief of the General Staff: General Walther Wenck
Leadership of the armed forces fully rested in Guderian, who retained Doenitz for obvious reasons while appointing Milch to lead the Luftwaffe on Speer's insistence and decided to centralize OKH and OKW into a General Staff to increase coordination, putting his brilliant protegé Wenck to solve that particular task. As a prize for his change of loyalty and his use of the Reserve Army to secure the position of the new government, Fromm was kicked upstairs to lead the Heer and a new War Ministry, but with few actual powers despite his closeness to the new President.
  • Reichsführer-SS: General Josef "Sepp" Dietrich
  • Gestapo Chief and Chief of Police: Heinrich Müller
  • Intelligence Chief: Walther Schellenberg
  • Reserve Army Commander: General Wolfgang Thomale
Another chance to repay interesting loyalties, Guderian placed Dietrich in command of the SS to play a role not all together different than that of Viktor Lutze with the SA after the Night of the Long Knives, with instructions to downscale the remnants of the organization and integrate the Waffen-SS into the Heer if needed be. Müller was given large powers over the police (making him potentially more powerful than Keitel's Interior Ministry), while Schellenberg was rewarded with powers larger than that of the now arrested Admiral Canaris. Thomale, Guderian's loyal deputy, was given the Reserve Army for safety purposes.
  • Economy Minister: Walther Funk
  • Culture Minister: Dr. Gustav Adolf Scheel
  • Agriculture Minister: Herbert Backe
  • Justice Minister: General Joseph Harpe
  • Propaganda Minister: Otto Dietrich
  • Labour Minister: Karl Hanke
  • Transport Minister: Julius Dorpmüller
  • Minister without Portfolio: Arthur Seyss Inquart
Many of the remaining ministers were surviving appointees or temporary ones, mostly so the Ministries would not stop working at that crucial moment (particularly in the case of Funk, as Speer and Guderian were strongly considering a replacement). The more signficant appointments were those of Harpe (to keep the Justice Ministry firmly under military control), Seyss Inquart (who some proposed as Vice-Chancellor) and Hanke (replacing Sauckel with much larger powers at Speer's initiative), giving the Third Reich a government that looked rather different to that of the previous weeks, even if many of the goals and outlook were remarkably similar. Aware of the desperate situation Germany was in, but more or less still unaware of how uncompromising the Allied approach to a negotiated peace was, the the government was in a deeply troubling situation. Could they prevent a full scale collapse from ending the war within a few weeks?

Only time would tell.
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Notes for Part VII:

[1] The term will be disputed by others, describing it more of a civil war. Whatever the case, it has become fashionable to address the intense fighting in the aftermath of Hitler's assassination as a "crisis" (opposed to a full blown civil war).
[2] If it were 1942 or 1943 that Guderian assumed power, I think he'd probably take the office or give it serious thought. In Late 1944, with Germany in such a bad shape, I think Guderian would realize becoming Head of State or Head of Government would be the fastest way of getting a noose around his neck at the moment the war ended. His solution to this particular dilemma becomes evident later.
[3] I realize doubts may arise on the ease in which Germany will come to at least accept the "salvation government", but given the current scenario, do they have a choice? I doubt anyone save for the SS and the more fanatical of Hitler's possible successors (most dead by now) would seriously attempt another countercoup at this point and definetly plunge Germany into civil war. Besides, between Speer, Guderian and the rest there's a lot of documented friendships and connections which I feel would be effective in brigning people on side.
[4] In order to make a negotiated peace with Germany even plausible in 1944 you need a much, much more different landscape, with the 20th July coup does not change. Whether Beck would have accepted the unconditional surrender or not I leave it up to debate, but the Allies sure would not have accepted a negotiated peace of any sorts. The same principle applies to the new government, of course.
[5] Blumentritt was shown before as not being part of the coup, and by now it's starting to become evident that Beck and company were behind the assassinaton of the Führer. That will not sit well with a lot of people.
[6] The division took great losses in Normandy and was sent to recover in late July, before moving to Southern France. They came quite in handy.
[7] But trust me, he'll wish he hadn't.
[8] More on this later, but yes, I haven't forgotten about the other countries. Italy, Hungary and Bulgaria particularly will be most interesting to observe.
[9] Particularly so given that Guderian saw himself as a potential military savior for Germany. Having full control over the military means that having a larger office or even being "Führer" would be a nuisance and a danger in the current context. I hope I read Guderian well...
[10] To be fair, my original intention was to have Speer as Chancellor and Rommel as the President, but I couldn't make it work. I'm aware I'm pushing the limits of the narrative in some regards, and that would probably be a step too far given his wounds, his links to the plot and quite a few issues more.
[11] I believe Speer when he says he didn't want to be named Hitler's successor in April 1945, but being offered the President in June 1944, when his faith has not been fully shattered? I think he'd take the office without blinking an eye.
[12] If I'm going too far with this particular cabinet or made glaring mistakes on it do let me know, I'll be glad to make corrections. It seemed plausible and interesting in my mind, but one never knows...
 
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The only way for the WAllies or Soviets to accept any sort of negotiated peace is if the war effort went deep south by mysterious means (e.g. surprise plague in Allied lines, atomic annihilation out of nowhere, magic). Other than that, no hope for a peace settlement. None. :V
 
Good update, so whilst Germany has internally stabilised I think the situation on the front will be very risky for the foreseeable future and I'm looking forward to see how this all plays out.
 
What chances? ;) As far as getting away with anything but unconditional surrender - they were zero before and are zero now. I suppose the number of casualties suffered among soldiers and civilians is an important metric in which you could still talk about chances - millions of German deaths could still be avoided.
 
I was thinking in the chances of Germany being bombed back to the Stone Ages. Bearing in mind the astonishing numbers of casualties that followed July 20th, 1944, the only hope is that Guderian grows balls and says "Goodbye to All That".
 
One can only hope that the Germans realize that peace of any kind is hopeless and that Guderian would simply burn everything. The fires hunger, and the capricious Allies will find nothing but ash before them.
 
What chances? ;) As far as getting away with anything but unconditional surrender - they were zero before and are zero now. I suppose the number of casualties suffered among soldiers and civilians is an important metric in which you could still talk about chances - millions of German deaths could still be avoided.

Millions of deaths have already been avoided. The worst months of the Final Solution where the SS try to finish what they started aren't going happen in this time line. There would likely continue to be work camps under greatly improved conditions. But, there will be no film reels of thousands of starving barely alive camp residents nor of bodies just lying everywhere.

As for surrender not under the current terms no, honestly Germany would get off far worse then OTL if they surrendered at this point while FDR was in office.

The war ending in 1944 with the WAllies occupying all of Germany and FDR President doesn't mean an easier peace even with the Final Solution ended. In fact I would argue it would mean a vastly harder peace where there is no perceived need for a West Germany and East Germany or a Germany at all.

Germans if they surrendered at this point would at best get FDR's plan to divide Germany up into over a dozen different statlets at worst they get his Treasury Secretaries plan instituted for several years.
 
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