Since the Provisional Government has been brought up, I thought I’d ask a pretty important question. Is Russia even capable of transitioning into a democracy once the Second Civil War ends? Considering how much of an utter failure the Provisional Government was, I don’t think many people in Russia would have the fondest thoughts on democracy once the dust begins to settle.
The Provisional Government wasn't a real democracy: it was a collection of moderates that took for granted the people's anger, and it didn't even hold a single election.
The question of whether or not Russia can transition to democracy really depends on a few things.
1) Cohesion among the CNS factions.
So far, the CNS seem only united in defeating the Reds, but can they stay united long enough to create some kind of system of government? ITTL, the Syndicalists have tried to launch revolutions against the CNS, so it strikes me their cohesion is very weak. If they can't united, then within a couple of years, chaos could return to Russia again.
Then we would have Time of Troubles 2: This Time, You're In Trouble Now.
2) Corruption
The outside world might provide a lot of aid for the CNS, but will the CNS, many of them officials forged from the Soviet system, actually use the aid to help Russians, or just embezzle it-which is what Yeltsin's inner circle did.
3) Wealth
Can the post-CNS government rebuild Russia's economy from war and years of mismanagement, or will they make conditions for the Soviets worse then under communism?
These are the things on which a stable, democratic Russia can be built.