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I recently read the biography of Jefferson Davis - The Man and His Hour by Wiliam C. Davis, which I found quite interesting. So it appears as if even Jeff Davis knew from the beginning that it was a lost cause for the south (hence his reluctancy to support secession before MI seceeced) but he got carried away by the early sucesses the Confederates had on the battlefield (especially First Bull Run / Manassas) - like so many others of his fellow Southerners.

The one thing that i noted is that after 1861, the first three major turning points occured, namely:

- Loss of New Orleans in May 1862
- Confederate Invasion of Kentucky in September 1862 (known as the The Heartland Campaign June-October 1862)
- The Antietam Campaign in September 1862

All of those happend in 6 months and in one campaign season, so they took a heavy toll on the hope for Southern Independence, in retrospect I think the year 1862 spelled doom for the Confederacy, it foreshadowed the ultimate outcome of the war.

An earlier point would be the the Invasion of Kentucky in September 1861 (Polk's blunder), however this would probably require an Union invasion first (but would possibly avoid Shiloh later on) and is one of the options in my other post here: https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/ahc-kentucky-in-the-confederacy.445420/

Map: Territory held by the CSA end of 1861: https://etc.usf.edu/maps/pages/2900/2935/2935.gif
Map: Western Theater: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:ACW_Western_Theater_Overview.png

Turning points: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turning_point_of_the_American_Civil_War

I did not include the death of Albert Sidney Johnston in April 1862, because I think it's diffcult to estimate how much his generalship would change the situation (Jeff Davis lost much hope due to the death of his friend).

So, what would happen, if the CSA avoided those ealy failures?

To clarify, I do not think that it would change the eventual outcome of the war. At best, the war will be prolong for a couple of months, since the Union will have to conquer more territory later on, and it will be thus bloodier for both sides.
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