Turkish controlled Warsaw, possible?

I was talking to an old friend today, she is going for her masters in college and we got talking about her history class she taking and we got to talking about the Balkans, Eastern Europe, and the Ottoman Empire and we both spent about three hours happily carving up Europe and the rest of the world into possible empires and spheres of influence and she drew an Ottoman Empire that controlled what we would consider the Congress of Poland and I got thinking what the world would be like with an Ottoman controlled Poland.

Now I know its pretty much an ASB right off the bat but I was thinkg about how that could happen and how it could even be possible and if it did how it would effect the Ottoman Empire and the surounding empires.

ideas?
 
Very Possible

The Ottomans led a number of successful invasions of Poland-Lithuania. During the Moldavian Magnate Wars, the Turks defeated and invaded Poland numerous times and were ceded much territory in Ukraine/Southern Poland. You could use a POD where the Turks win the Battle of Khotyn and conquer central Poland. You could also make it part of the wider Russo-Turkish conflict. The Ottomans allied with the Swedish Empire to invade Russia, so the two powers could certainly defeat their common enemy of Poland.
 
I don't think it's ASB, but it seems to me it would have to be through the agency of the Crimean Khanate, and thus is not likely to be a long-term acquisition.

I was talking to an old friend today, she is going for her masters in college and we got talking about her history class she taking and we got to talking about the Balkans, Eastern Europe, and the Ottoman Empire and we both spent about three hours happily carving up Europe and the rest of the world into possible empires and spheres of influence and she drew an Ottoman Empire that controlled what we would consider the Congress of Poland and I got thinking what the world would be like with an Ottoman controlled Poland.

Now I know its pretty much an ASB right off the bat but I was thinkg about how that could happen and how it could even be possible and if it did how it would effect the Ottoman Empire and the surounding empires.

ideas?
 
I think it's rather unlikely.
Perhaps someone will (AHP?) correct me I'm wrong, but it seems there was a reasons Turk didn't get past Vienna in their conquests - their organizational/recruiting base was around Istambul/Adrianople area and every campagin was starting from there, seriously limiting their range.
The Crimean Tatars raided into central Poland a couple of time, but their were, well, raiders and them holding onto Poland as far as Warsaw (which is quite a distant from Podolia) seems ASBish.
I could see Turk/Tatars occuping Lvov, but not much beyond that.
 
I think it's rather unlikely.
Perhaps someone will (AHP?) correct me I'm wrong, but it seems there was a reasons Turk didn't get past Vienna in their conquests - their organizational/recruiting base was around Istambul/Adrianople area and every campagin was starting from there, seriously limiting their range.
The Crimean Tatars raided into central Poland a couple of time, but their were, well, raiders and them holding onto Poland as far as Warsaw (which is quite a distant from Podolia) seems ASBish.
I could see Turk/Tatars occuping Lvov, but not much beyond that.

It would have to be early, in the 15th c, but short-term conquest of Poland is possible by the Crimean Khanate, probably not the Ottomans themselves. You would have to operate from Crimean bases to even reach Poland, and I'm not sure what possible interest the Ottomans would have in this.
 
Warsaw and Central Poland directly controlled by Turks for any longish period of time does not strike me as too likely (although I agree with AHP that this is far from ASB, it is just requires Turks concentrating on task by building supply chain much farther North than they wanted or needed IOTL), but Turks indirctly controlling Poland through vassalage (Polish king being subordinate tribute-bearer of Sultan) is very possible. After all, it might be claimed that Mongols (through their overlordship of Novgorod Republic) ruled as far North as Norwegian border.
 
Warsaw and Central Poland directly controlled by Turks for any longish period of time does not strike me as too likely (although I agree with AHP that this is far from ASB, it is just requires Turks concentrating on task by building supply chain much farther North than they wanted or needed IOTL), but Turks indirctly controlling Poland through vassalage (Polish king being subordinate tribute-bearer of Sultan) is very possible. After all, it might be claimed that Mongols (through their overlordship of Novgorod Republic) ruled as far North as Norwegian border.
The Commonwealth (and the Muscovy) did pay tribute to the Crimea till 1680-ies. From the Ottoman point-of-view, they weren't even Istanbul's tributaries, because they stood even lower, being tributaries of the Ottoman vassal.
And you know, before the "Long War" of 1593-1606 Habsburgs paid tribute to the Ottomans. So, it could be claimed (and, IIRC, it was claimed by the Porte) that Germans were Ottoman vassals, and thus the Sultan ruled all the way to the North Sea.
 
The Commonwealth (and the Muscovy) did pay tribute to the Crimea till 1680-ies. From the Ottoman point-of-view, they weren't even Istanbul's tributaries, because they stood even lower, being tributaries of the Ottoman vassal.
Yes, but I meant more extensive control, so to speak. Despite Russian payments to Crimean Khan till at least Peter the Great's reign, Crimean influence on Muskovite decision-making was entirely absent (or, to say it better, Crimea was a foe, and war with them did affect decision-making, but not their orders as overlords). Monols had at least as much control over Novgorod as HRE Emperor over Germany, may be even as much as Polish king over magnates. And this level of Ottoman control over Polish kingdom is achievable without too many butterflies.
 
The Commonwealth (and the Muscovy) did pay tribute to the Crimea till 1680-ies. From the Ottoman point-of-view, they weren't even Istanbul's tributaries, because they stood even lower, being tributaries of the Ottoman vassal.
And you know, before the "Long War" of 1593-1606 Habsburgs paid tribute to the Ottomans. So, it could be claimed (and, IIRC, it was claimed by the Porte) that Germans were Ottoman vassals, and thus the Sultan ruled all the way to the North Sea.

I think there's a difference between a tributary and a vassal. In the case of the latter, there is usually at least some formal influence, whereas a tributary is just paying the other party not to bother them.

For instance, in the case of the Ottomans and the Byzantines, for parts of the latter's final century, it was a formal vassal of the Sultan, required to provide troops for his campaigns. In one case, the Emperor was even ordered to attack one of his own cities to deliver it to the Ottomans.

In the case of Poland, the Crimeans didn't have any such power over Poland, let alone the Ottomans. If the latter, however, had been willing to provide significant support and effort, the Crimean Khanate was probably a sufficient base from which to invade Poland and occupy Kracow (which was the capital, not Warsaw). If the Ottomans pursued a serious "Eastern" strategy, building a Don-Volga Canal, liberate/save Kazan and Astrakhan, and allow communications between Central Asia and the Ukraine, you could see Turcoman settlement in Poland to a larger extent than occurred in OTL, and a longer-term occupation of Poland, but I still think it's doomed in the long-run to to the huge disparity in numbers between the Slavs and any potential influx of Muslims.
 
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