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AFAIK the Turkish Government was pro-Allied, but (correctly) kept their country neutral in World War II and played the Axis powers off against the Allies to get as many concessions as possible out of both before declaring war on Germany in February 1945.

However, what if the Turkish Government "did a Mussolini" and declared war on the British in the first half of 1941 when British power in the Mediterranean and Middle East appeared to be dissolving (i.e. Greece, Crete, Rommel's first offensive, the Iraqi Revolt and Syria)?

AFAIK Turkey had a small air force and navy, but according to one source I read it had an army of 60 divisions and according to another source (Encyclopaedia Britannica) it deployed 20 divisions to defend Istanbul in the first half of 1941. But AFAIK it wasn't capable of offensive operations (e.g. they didn't have much mechanical transport) which they used as a bargaining chip to get more military aid from the Allies and to delay their entry into the war.

However, the British Empire and Commonwealth Forces (BEC) in the region were relatively weak and spread over a huge area. Therefore I think they would be able to take Syria and the northern Iraq (which AFAIK is where the oil is) in the first half of 1941. The BEC Forces used to form the 8th Army IOTL probably have to be diverted to Palestine and southern Iraq ITTL, which in turn probably means Tobruk has to be abandoned plus no Operations Brevity, Battleaxe and Crusader.

Then in the second half of 1941 they join the Germans in operation Barbarossa. The Turkish Army might not advance very far, but the diversion of Soviet resources might help the Germans on the main front.

In 1942 the Turks probably stay on the defensive on the Levant and Iraqi fronts so that they can concentrate on supporting the German Caucasus offensive. If that is successful they then try to negotiate a separate peace with the WAllies. AFAIK the Turks didn't want their middle eastern empire back, but they did want a revision of the borders. That is in part why I have limited the territorial gains in 1941. In spite of the limitations of the Turkish armed forces I think they could have got as far as Palestine and Kuwait, but was deliberately conservative because I think annexing these territories would not be a Turkish war aim.

On the other side of the hill the BEC probably goes on the defensive in Egypt and might even pull back to the Alamein Line earlier than they did IOTL to concentrate resources on clearing the Turks out of Syria and northern Iraq. They want to deprive the Axis of the Iraqi oil (regardless of how much they are able to extract for logistical reasons) and secure the supply line to the USSR via Iraq. The Allies might be prepared to make a separate peace with Turkey so they can do Operation Torch, Sicily and the invasion of Italy at the same time as OTL, the Axis troops in Libya would be left isolated and would eventually surrender.
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