Turkey instead of Finland

POD: The Molotov-Ribbentrop pact assigns Turkey to the Soviet sphere of interest instead of leaving it out of the discussion. Winter 1940, Soviets go to war with Turkey instead of Finland with the prime objective of securing the Turkish straights. Results?

I expect the Entente to be more likely to intervene, and the Norway campaign might be butterflied away.
 
Maybe. That Soviet invasion might make the Turks even more pro-Western and considered more European by the Entente so that it's not as economically and politically snubbed as it has been.

However, the Soviets'd most likely have a field day pushing through Bulgaria and crushing Turkish Thrace PDQ despite their woeful issues with logistics and lack of small-unit doctrine that made the Finnish campaign such a bloody mess. They won't have the winter slowing them down and can bring their tanks and artillery to bear where in Finland, those advantages meant very little.

The Soviets could bog down in several places, if the Turks fortify the right places and have adequate air support, but I don't see them being able to hold them out of Istanbul for the six months it'd take the British and French to land enough troops, gear, and ammo to make much of a difference.
The colonial units handy in Iraq, Egypt, Syria, and Algeria won't have the gear or training to fight mechanized troops with artillery, tanks, and aircraft bombing and strafing their positions.
The butterflies of Entente intervention could really screw the USSR short and long-term. Anyone for a replay of the Crimean War?
 
How are they getting to the straits? Are Romania and Bulgaria simply allowing them transit? If so, the Turks are probably able to tell exactly when and where they're coming from, and Soviet supply lines are dependent on Balkan/German goodwill.

If they're coming by sea, that greatly constricts the support available to the invasion, and I seriously doubt the Soviets have had much if any training in doing opposed landings.

The Italians are probably going to have fits at the idea of the Soviets penetrating to the Mediterranean, and that sets off deeply rooted alarms in Britain as well. I wonder if it could even delay or prevent Italian entry into the war... They were irritated enough at German involvement in the Balkans, but inviting the Soviets to take the straits could be a bridge too far.
 
I was imagining the war would begin by the Soviets demanding bases at the straights and/or other unreasonable demands. Bulgaria was already an ally of the Soviets, and had claims to Thrace. Even if Romania doesn't allow transit, the Russian troops can land in Bulgaria and advance to Thrace and try to take Istanbul, etc, from there. I don't know the status of the front in the Caucuses. The Red Army might advance through there to attempt to defeat the Turkish army and make the Turks sue for peace, but that seems to be a little too bold and costly, more reflective of a style of warfare from centuries past...but that region might also be a bridge to Anglo-French colonies and bases if the war goes that way.
 
I was imagining the war would begin by the Soviets demanding bases at the straights and/or other unreasonable demands. Bulgaria was already an ally of the Soviets, and had claims to Thrace. Even if Romania doesn't allow transit, the Russian troops can land in Bulgaria and advance to Thrace and try to take Istanbul, etc, from there. I don't know the status of the front in the Caucuses. The Red Army might advance through there to attempt to defeat the Turkish army and make the Turks sue for peace, but that seems to be a little too bold and costly, more reflective of a style of warfare from centuries past...but that region might also be a bridge to Anglo-French colonies and bases if the war goes that way.

Living in Exile

If the Soviets use Bulgaria as a forward base that has two major problems I can see.

a) The Germans, not just Hitler, were very nervous about the Soviets threatening the Romanians oilfields. If Soviets forces, especially substantial ones as you're suggesting are established immediately to its south as well as them occupying Bessarabia the Germans are likely to object strongly. I can't see them agreeing to this in the original deal so any Soviet attack would have to be from the east rather than the north.

b) Presuming the Soviets try something by sea, either via Bulgaria or say a landing on the coastline of Anatolia say, that means its dependent on sea lines of supply. How much of a merchant marine did the Soviets have in the Black Sea? I know they didn't have much of a navy to defend it so how much lasts once the RN starts operating in the Black Sea?

I think even Stalin would have recognised the idea of conquering Turkey at this point as being impractical, especially if he gets anything like accurate reports of the mess the attack on Poland was.

Steve
 
b) Presuming the Soviets try something by sea, either via Bulgaria or say a landing on the coastline of Anatolia say, that means its dependent on sea lines of supply. How much of a merchant marine did the Soviets have in the Black Sea? I know they didn't have much of a navy to defend it so how much lasts once the RN starts operating in the Black Sea?

I wonder if Italy would offer naval support to Turkey in that scenario. Maybe at the cost of trade or other relatively minor concessions by the Turks? The RN might not need to get involved then, though all bets are off once Germany launches Barbarossa.
 

Hoist40

Banned
How about if plans for Operation Pike were more advanced and was leaked. Operation Pike was the Anglo/French plan to bomb Soviet oil facilities in Baku from bases in Iran, Syria and Turkey. This would give Stalin the justification to attack south not north.

Don’t know how the Allies planned on getting Turkey to go along with this bombing plan but I guess they had some sort of plan.
 
I wonder if Italy would offer naval support to Turkey in that scenario. Maybe at the cost of trade or other relatively minor concessions by the Turks? The RN might not need to get involved then, though all bets are off once Germany launches Barbarossa.

How are Italian-Turkish relations?

For that matter, how are Entente-Turkish relations? Finland wasn't that eager to accept aid from the British and French. Turkey might not want to become the battlefield for the great powers and turn down aid unless they face catastrophic defeat.
 
Stalin wouldn't go for it, Finland is closer to home, and would really want them in the German camp, if it means getting a country that would be hard to control unless they somehow put a friendly government.
 

Cook

Banned
How are Italian-Turkish relations?
Appalling following since Italy occupied the Dodecanese in 1912, and temporarily occupied parts of southern Turkey at the end of the First World War. Turkey gave the British an undertaking to enter the war on the British side if Italy entered the war, they subsequently reneged on the undertaking.
Bulgaria was already an ally of the Soviets, and had claims to Thrace.
What alliance are you referring to? Bulgaria only established diplomatic relations with the Soviet Union in July 1934, prior to that they were not even on speaking terms because of Soviet support for the Bulgarian Communist Party. While Bulgaria maintained diplomatic relations throughout the war and never declared war on the Soviets, I can find no reference to an alliance between them prior to the arrival of the Red army in ’44.
Winter 1940, Soviets go to war with Turkey instead of Finland with the prime objective of securing the Turkish straights. Results?
Any move towards the Straits would have raised British concerns, since it would pose a threat to Britain’s links to the Empire, something Stalin was at pains to avoid at the time and even as late as 1944-45. It would have also played to the Soviet Union’s weakness since it would require the Black Sea fleet transporting and supplying an army.

Far more likely would be that the Soviets demand a revision of the Treaty of Kars which assigned previously Russian Imperial territory in eastern Anatolia to the Turkish Republic in 1921. An ultimatum would be delivered to the Turks, which would be refused, following which Soviet forces in the Caucasus would launch a cross border invasion in the direction of Ardahan, Kars and Karakose, which the ultimate objective being Erzurum. Given the conditions in the Caucasus in mid-winter, they’d probably suffer casualties at least as heavy as they did against the Finns, but given the much broader front and Turkey’s own logistic difficulties in the Caucasus, they could be expected to make some headway and at least achieve their initial objectives.
 
Sorry, ally was too strong a word. I was under the impression Bulgaria and Russia had pretty good relations from other things I've read (here or on other places on the Internet, I forget), and was just assuming they'd be allies of convenience under these circumstances. But I'll be the first to admit I'm an amateur.

Issues I'm interested in:

If the Red Army transits through Romania, what would Hitler's reaction actually be? Barbarossa a year early and ignoring the Entente, or trying to tread gingerly?

Materially, where are the Turks at?

OTL the Soviets staged the Kurch landings, a total disaster by all accounts. What would happen if something similar was attempted, either directly at the straits, or somewhere on the Anatolian coast?

The fate of any Allied fleet that enters the Black Sea: they're far from ports that can logistically support them, and essentially cordoned into a lake that will be dominated by the (admittedly weak) Soviet airforce. Could it play out like Crete but earlier?
 
...
If the Red Army transits through Romania, what would Hitler's reaction actually be? Barbarossa a year early and ignoring the Entente, or trying to tread gingerly?

...

He'd be crapping himself at the prospects of the Soviets being in the same country as the Polesti oil fields...

In short, not a happy camper.
 
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