Turkey emerge as ''super'' power 2025

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In 2024 the ambtious modernisation of the Turkish armed forces and especially the Naval forces will be completed.
Ever since Erdogan become PM and later President he enforced his grip on Turkey and increased the influence of Turkey in the region. Clearly and without disguise having the ambiton and goal to become the leading Muslim country and matching the power of the former Ottoman empire.
Economic growth of Turkey made this psossible eclipsing by far any othe Islamic country. Despite encountering monetarian and economic realities, in the form of large inflation and economic slowdown, Erdogan and his party remained in power and continued to recieve large popular support, with exception of Istanbul and some other cities.
Due to weakness, contradicting agenda's and short sighed policy of the EU, USA adn Russia, Turkey could aquire much leverage and influence in the region.
Althoug after the alleged coup of 2016, large purges in the Armed forces serious reduced the effectivness of this Armed forces. This was revealed during military operations in former Syria during the Syrian civil war. By 2024 the armed forces recovered from this purges in their officer corps.
The economy of Turkey heavly relied on natural gas from Russia, which had due to this, large influence on Turkey. On the other hand Turkey remained, even due to serous dificutlies with the USA , member of the NATO. Which in turn provide Turkey some leverage against Russia. The situation provided Erdogan in many cases opportunities to play the parties agiants each other in favor of Turkey. Never the less this dependicies of NATO(USA) and Russia become more of a burden than an asset.
By 2024 Turkey needed a next step in order to become the top tier country, in the Islamic world and even the Mediteranian. At the same time it needed full independence of Russian gas and USA interference. As an example the USA made it possible of the creation of an independent Kurdish state in former Syria.
By 2024 Libia was still a country were war lords and other factions changed power nearly every year. All atemds of the EU to stop the violence ended in half harted enterprises which ultimate ended in nothing.
In the spring of 2025 a large armada, including the latesd destroyers, frigates and aircraft carrier and charted merchant vessels sailed towards Libia and established a beach head. Hampered by infight and decade of civil war the Libian armed oppostition was neutralised in a swift and ruthless manner. Within a month the entire coastal area was under firm Turkish control and three months later the entire country was occupied and "pacified" by Turkish armed forces.
The whole operation was met with confusion, and inapty of the EU, USA and the rest of the International community.
Mean while, when the entire focus was on Libia, in Bosnia-Herzegowina a Turkish organised coup took place. At the same time the govements of Albania and Kossovo declared to be autonomus part of Turkey and inviting and recieving large units of Turkish armed forces. The economuc and political influence in the latter was already large. Again, as far as this was noted by the international comunity there was no interference of this action.
By atum of 2025 President Erdogan made a speach, were he made clear that Libia, Albania and Kossovo were intergral parts of Turkey.
In the comming years Libia received thousands of Turkish families, many of them required to restore and expand the oil and gas production and infrastructure, but also in large scal plan to turn Libia in a real Turkish country. Bosnia-Herzegowina encontered oppression against non mohamedan population resulting in a steep increase of Croats and Serbs leaving the country. Albania-Kossovo were nearly ovenight turned in proper Turkish provinces, although remaing their own language.
Libia provide Turkey vast amount of Natural gas and Oil, thus energy independence of Russia, and a geostratigic position to put leverage on Egypt and the rest of North Africa and even Sub-Saharan Africa. Albania-Kossovo provided a geostrategic buffer zone to the EU and huge leverage againts Greece and increased domestic influence within EU countries whit lage numbers of Turks.
 
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There is a lot of stuff going on here, but I should say that this is probably a topic better addressed in Future History or Chat.
 
Is this paraphrased from George Friedman's "the Next 100 Years"?
I do know the book of Friedman, and I know he describes Turkey as new power.

Only the above I just figured out after reading the ambitous Navy modernisations/enlargement and the ambition to become self sufficient regarding the manufacturing of military hard ware.
Further it ocured to me that Libia, or the teritory formerly known as Libia is still a mess and probably remain so the next 5 years.
I figured that Turkey might use its new naval assets to make grab in order to secure the vast Gas and Oil reserves under Libia. They even can come up with a historical claim.
The natural resources would fit perfectly in Turkeys ambitions to become the leading Islamic nation and a major global player.
The former Balkan states does have a major muslim population or in case of Bosnia are since the civil war islamised at a fast rate. In any case the influence of Turkey at this moment is already large in this area.
 

Masaryk

Banned
Turkey has an unemployment rate of 13% despite 5 million + Turks living/working
in Europe instead of Turkey.

The inflation rate in Turkey is 15 to 20%!

The population is split 50/50 in pro and anti Erdogan - then there are the Kurs, the highest debt the country ever had...

This is an alternate history scenario right?
 
Turkey has an unemployment rate of 13% despite 5 million + Turks living/working
in Europe instead of Turkey.

The inflation rate in Turkey is 15 to 20%!

The population is split 50/50 in pro and anti Erdogan - then there are the Kurs, the highest debt the country ever had...

This is an alternate history scenario right?

Yep!

You are correct with all the points above, I do not know the exact figures but in a normal democracy or any other regime run with more sensible economic atitude, this prevent any forreign adventures. Especially on a scale as I discribed.

But despite the super inflation (still increasing) despite the large unemployment ( this is never a show stopper or a bad thing which need to be considered, out side the Western world)
Depite the shaking economy and financial base, the modernisation and expansion of the Navy, Army and Airforce are still on track at this moment.

Approval rate of less than 50% is not important since Erdogan rules with violence and mobilised religion to kep the other half of the population in check. The Kurds are not a real match however the Turks would be more than annoyed if a independent Kurdish state emerge.

The Turks living working out side Turkey is a considered a valuable asset, since he is tremendous popular by the Turkish living in North West Europe.
 
I can't see Turkey being super power. Barely even great power. Best what you can do is local great power but even then you need surviving Ottoman Empire.
 
I can't see Turkey being super power. Barely even great power. Best what you can do is local great power but even then you need surviving Ottoman Empire.
""Super"" power or Great power or local power what is in the name. The point is, Turkey as a great potential to be come a power to be reconed with in the Mediteranian, Midle East and Far East, this are the -stan states ( Turkmenistan, Azerbeidzjan etc)
 

Masaryk

Banned
@ Parma

Turkey has some 2500 tanks, of these 1700 or so are M45 and M60 Pattons and another 300 are Leopard 1s. If 80% of your tank force is obsolete, you are not a great power and you will need longer than 5 years to modernize.
 
@ Parma

Turkey has some 2500 tanks, of these 1700 or so are M45 and M60 Pattons and another 300 are Leopard 1s. If 80% of your tank force is obsolete, you are not a great power and you will need longer than 5 years to modernize.

Again you are correct regarding the large, no , stunning number of obsolete hard ware, most of it even bought second hand. But you need to give your massive conscript army some toy, don't you?

But serious. In large parts of the world even an obsolete tank like a M60 , Leopard 1 - 2 or even a T55 can do much harm against an opponent only armed with AK47, RPG and technicals.

Turkey is at this moment building up a modern armed force, with as much as possible home build equipment. They are doing this since 2003.

Libia is at this point nothing more than a teritory rulled by multiple gouverments which are essential nothing more than war lords.

You do not need state of the art equipment, but I predict Turkey will do, at least in the first phase of the conquest they will use their modern fleet and armed forces. The Libian conquest will be a straight forward campaing, like most people think war will be. An organised modern army opposing a ragtag militia/army, semetrical warfare.

The other campaigns in the Balkan are more a-semetrical, like the conquest of Crimia, by Russia.
 
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