Turkey during Barbarossa without Britain in the war?

Lets assume that Britain for whatever reason opts out of the war in 1940-41 (Halifax, worse BOB, Better Italian performance and threat against the Empire etc) AND Barbarossa starts out well for the Germans despite the lack of surprise.
Would it be possible for the Axis to pursuade Turkey to join in (say in August/September 1941)?
What would Turkey like to gain?
What could they contribute? Could they put any real real pressure on the Russian Southern front?

If naval supremacy could be established in the Black sea, what would be the axis benefits? I assume an easier fall of Sevastopol, later shipments in via Rostov. How about Novorossijsk and Sochi? Could they be used to alleviate supply line stress or is the connecting infrastructure to poor?
 
Lets assume that Britain for whatever reason opts out of the war in 1940-41 (Halifax, worse BOB, Better Italian performance and threat against the Empire etc) AND Barbarossa starts out well for the Germans despite the lack of surprise.
Would it be possible for the Axis to pursuade Turkey to join in (say in August/September 1941)?
What would Turkey like to gain?
What could they contribute? Could they put any real real pressure on the Russian Southern front?

If naval supremacy could be established in the Black sea, what would be the axis benefits? I assume an easier fall of Sevastopol, later shipments in via Rostov. How about Novorossijsk and Sochi? Could they be used to alleviate supply line stress or is the connecting infrastructure to poor?

Would it be Possible?: Sure! If British drops out, and Barbarossa is as smashing as success as IRL, then Germany is riding high on the wave of prestige at this point. Add that to the fact that they'll likely be... shall we say, 'leaning on' Ankara for closer co-operation (Like they did with the Balkan states) and with no GB to leverage as a counterweight, even more moderate Turkish politicians may just decide they don't have a choice but to dine with the Devil, with as long of a spoon as they can manage to get in the cirumstances.

What would they want?: Firstly, to get and stay on Germany's good side (Or at least its "Nations we like enough not to attack" list). Removing Soviet pressure to get access to/bases in the Straits (and the undermining of Turkish sovergeinity and ire of the British that would entail if they conceded) would also be a good knock-on effect.

But for territorial gains? Some expansion into the Caucuses are in the cards, considering there are Turkic Muslim people's living there who could be integrated into the country with some work. Azerbaijan, with the oil field at Baku in particular, would be attractive, alongside Grozny. Territorial rectification in Western Thrace (via a Vienna Awards type situation with Bulgaria) is another potential claim Germany might be able to give them and could appeal to certain Turkish politicians.

And, of course, there's the boatload of money that can be made selling chormite ore to the German war machine.

What could they contribute: Well, the chromite ore for one thing. Providing that vital raw resource will help keep the German and Italian industries running smoothly. Access through/logistical and shipping support via the Straits would allow the Italian navy to support any operations in the Black Sea, as well as allow for major shipping/resupply from ports. This would partially eliminate the need to retool the Soviet rail system, at least for forces operating in the southern theature, allowing operations there to be larger and move more quickly than they otherwise could. This allows, for example, an earlier move on Stalingrad or a lunge towards the Caucuses and the major Soviet source of fuel and refining capacity. (Of course, if Britain drops out of the war that has other effect: namely the possible resurgence of pro-Axis factions in Iran and less L-L material available for the Persian corridor anyways, meaning the Soviet logistical position in the region is already somewhat weaker)

BUt in terms of actual military operations? While a Turkish forces might be able to operate with Army Group South by being unloaded at/supplied by Black Sea ports, I can't see the Soviet-Turkish frontier being anything more than a sideshow. The roads and terrain along the border are laughably poor, meaning no large Turkish army (Especially one that needs a lot of supplies... such as anything mechanized or backed with air power or even a heavy compliment of artillery) could operate there in good order for any length of time and would suffer unacceptably high attrition rates. It may leave the Soviet forces there "Pinned" along the border; meaning they have less troops available to bolster their position in the northern Caucuses, but that's about it. Alternatively, airbases could be constructed for the Luftwaffe to conduction "Operation Pike"-like attacks on Soviet refining facilities... but Hitler wants those more or less intact so he can make use of that oil once he seizes the territory: a move that's going to look a lot more attractive now that there's more supply flexibility in the southern theatre of operations.
 
Thanks, this is more or less what I thought, and its quite something.
My biggest uncertainty if the ports south-East of Rostov have any capacity to speak of and if the roads out of there going East is any use. If yes, something like case blue in 1941 could go ahead after Kiev, if not, well, then no.
Also, this would certainly help in 1942 to have Sevastopol cleared, possibly even a landing across the Kerch Peninsula to seize the Kerch harbor before an OTL like case blue would go ahead for real.
 

PlasmaTorch

Banned
With turkey as a co-belligerant, this would give the germans alot more options. If they can transport a few divisions through the country and station them at the border with georgia, the german and turkish forces would quickly be able to seize the caucuses and seize the USSRs oil supplys in baku. That would badly affect the red armys ability to fight.

As for what the turks want, who knows? They presented some very unrealistic terms to the germans in 1941 which were ignored.
 
Thanks, this is more or less what I thought, and its quite something.
My biggest uncertainty if the ports south-East of Rostov have any capacity to speak of and if the roads out of there going East is any use. If yes, something like case blue in 1941 could go ahead after Kiev, if not, well, then no.
Also, this would certainly help in 1942 to have Sevastopol cleared, possibly even a landing across the Kerch Peninsula to seize the Kerch harbor before an OTL like case blue would go ahead for real.

You mean just south? Because South-East is pretty much just land. If you're talking the ports of Circassia, there are.a few well-developed areas: Sochi and Novorossiyski come to mind, and there's oil infrastructure, rail lines, and canals criss-crossing the North Caucasus. It's also a nice area for collaboration, considering its the homeland of the Don and Kuban Cossacks who were well-known for their degree of co-operation with the Nazis, to say nothing of the Chechyans. Which reminds me: the navigable rivers. That'll help with the supply situation somewhat too.

The question is; can the Turks and Germans squeeze the Russians out before the Soviet buildup behind the Volga catches them turned the wrong direction? That's a lot dicier: what I DO know is if you can pinch the Russian oil off, at least in part, you buy time since Soviet logistics will move slower and operational stocks take longer to fill up.
 
You mean just south? Because South-East is pretty much just land. If you're talking the ports of Circassia, there are.a few well-developed areas: Sochi and Novorossiyski come to mind, and there's oil infrastructure, rail lines, and canals criss-crossing the North Caucasus. It's also a nice area for collaboration, considering its the homeland of the Don and Kuban Cossacks who were well-known for their degree of co-operation with the Nazis, to say nothing of the Chechyans. Which reminds me: the navigable rivers. That'll help with the supply situation somewhat too.

The question is; can the Turks and Germans squeeze the Russians out before the Soviet buildup behind the Volga catches them turned the wrong direction? That's a lot dicier: what I DO know is if you can pinch the Russian oil off, at least in part, you buy time since Soviet logistics will move slower and operational stocks take longer to fill up.

These are very nice points
I guess for German capabilities, my suggested pod would have too many butterflies from this timepoint onwards.
As a simple change from OTL it depends on when it happens and where the commitments are on the german side. I could imagine them moving onwards from Kiev without Taifun, which has many butterflies as well.
 
Turkey throughout the Soviet Unions existence always adopted the motto Draco Dormiens Nunquam Titillandus. Would you want to really piss off Stalin on the off chance he might win and in the full knowledge that if Hitler and Mussolini won the Med would become Italies Mare Nostrum.

Draco Dormiens Nunquam Titillandus = Never tickle a sleeping dragon
 
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