Turkey declares war on allies 1941

If the Germans push through Turkey, even with Turkey as an ally, it means no Barbarossa, at least for a minimum of a year after OTL.

Not so certain that's true.

Turkish infrastructure will limit the logistics of any German ground operation mounted through Turkey anyway, as we discussed earlier. The force they could send down into Syria and Iraq would be pretty modest, 10-12 divisions max. That's not necessarily fatal to Barbarossa, especially if it opens up a Caucasus front to attack to Soviets as well.

It may also depend on *when* the Turks join up. The moment Bulgaria joins the Tripartite Pact (March 1, 1941) makes it possible to move German troops into Turkey, not just Greece. An earlier start to any Middle Eastern and Greek operations may mitigate the effects on Barbarossa, at least by late summer/autumn. And of course if the point of departure gets the Balkan nations into the Tripartite Pact earlier, then so much the better for Germany (and worse for Britain).

The problem is, it's just hard to see the Turkish leadership of that day even thinking about joining the war on the Axis's side. That's a hard page to flip.
 
The key to Turkey is it's a thing because territorial contraction is often the right thing.

Mustafa Kemal, Father of his Country, was the best Turkish general in three hundred odd years. And he went 'Meh' to losing around 75% of the territory of the Ottoman Empire, because he believed a country full of Turks would work better than a patchwork quilt of ethnicities who may or may not be loyal.

For the Turks to join the Axis, you either need to show how they'd give up that to join the New Ottoman Empire (now under German stewardship).

So then it has to come from the Soviets realising that they can't let nato have turkey or they've lost before they started.

Which seems like some insane foresight but actually just requires Stalin to demand the straits pre Barbarossa but after Bulgaria joins axis (so Stalin thinks Turkey won't join axis).or Stalin demand Hitler let him have it during sphere of influence pact.

Then why wouldn't Turkey join the Allies? If they do is that USSR fucked?
 

Ian_W

Banned
Not so certain that's true.

Turkish infrastructure will limit the logistics of any German ground operation mounted through Turkey anyway, as we discussed earlier. The force they could send down into Syria and Iraq would be pretty modest, 10-12 divisions max. That's not necessarily fatal to Barbarossa, especially if it opens up a Caucasus front to attack to Soviets as well.

It's about the trucks.

The North Africa campaign used about an Army Group worth of trucks for a poorly-equipped panzer corps, because they were operating entirely too far from railheads.

Assuming anyone pays attention to the German logistics types, they'll have the same insane truck requirements for a trans-Turkey operation out of Beiruit or wherever ... trucks that will therefore not be available for Russia.

Logistics are important - you can handwave them away, but reality gets a vote.
 
Turkish infrastructure will limit the logistics of any German ground operation mounted through Turkey anyway, as we discussed earlier. The force they could send down into Syria and Iraq would be pretty modest, 10-12 divisions max.

Kinda? As I noted earlier, the British staff plan assumed that the core of the assault force would be by 4 panzer divisions, which were the main offensive strike force of the German army and who did the bulk of the slicing, dicing, and encircling in Barbarossa. This would be on top of the 2 already dispatched to Libya, OTL to act as defense and IATL presumably to act as the anvil to the Turkish forces hammer. That's 6 panzer divisions total at a time when Germany had a grand total of 21. The Germans used 17 panzer divisions for Barbarossa, so we're looking at dropping a minimum of two panzer divisions from the Barbarossa thrust. Given how thin the German achievements in Barbarossa were managed historically, that could result in major impacts on Barbarossa itself.

The North Africa campaign used about an Army Group worth of trucks for a poorly-equipped panzer corps, because they were operating entirely too far from railheads.

The Germans used around 600,000 trucks in the invasion of the USSR, which is 200,000 trucks per army group. For Africa, there were 2-3,000 trucks in each of the two (later three) panzer divisions plus an additional 5,000 (give or take a few thousand) in the non-divisional elements that did the bulk of the long-range haulage. That's about 14,000 (later 17,000) trucks throughout the entire corps... call it 20,000 at most, plus whatever motor-transport the Italian units had. So while the truck requirements for the single panzer corps was disproportionate, it wasn't to the degree of an entire army group's worth.

It's also technically incorrect to say that they were operating too far from railheads, but only because there were no significant railways in Libya for them to have a railhead out of so the main measurement of distance was to the nearest seaport, but that's terminological quibbling.

Assuming anyone pays attention to the German logistics types, they'll have the same insane truck requirements for a trans-Turkey operation out of Beiruit or wherever ... trucks that will therefore not be available for Russia.

While undoubtedly there would still be demands, they won't need so many trucks as to haul across the entirety of Turkey because, unlike Libya, Turkey DOES have a network of railways in 1941.

UMXIUse.jpg


As one can also gleen from the above map, the rail lines do continue down into Syria and Palestine along the coastal region, so if anything the truck requirement for this Turkish operation would be less then for the North African Operation. Requirements can be lessened further if the Germans manage to capture or neutralize Cyprus, which would open up the option of secure coastal shipping along the many reasonably developed ports.
 
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Lets split this up.

Are you're talking about Turkey being an independent belligerent in WW2, and grabbing a couple of Greek islands as the Germans invade ? This is terribly high risk, as it could cause either the British or the Germans to go to war with the Turks.

An unexpected war between Italy and Turkey in early 1941 really throws a spanner into Barbarossa - I think Germany would try really, really hard to solve it through diplomacy, because invading Turkey in 1941 doesn't defeat Russia.

My understanding is one of the issues between Germany and Russia was around which sphere of influence Turkey fell in ... and them carving up Turkey in 1941 does nothing to defeat the British or the Americans.

Turkey had claims in Syria, as noted by how they seized Antioch in the interwar period. Turkish nationalists claimed and still claim northern Syria thanks to its Turkmen minority. Turkey could potentially seize parts of the Caucasus, those Greek islands, and West Thrace (the rest of Greece can go to whatever Bulgaria and Italy want to do with it).

The Iraq campaign was a lost opportunity for the Axis, in part because the Iraqi Golden Square wasn't able to be decisive enough toward the British and also because the Germans had no real ability to divert resources to them. With the Turks in the war, things might be a bit different there, and now the Axis has easier access to Iraq to drive out the British. The Abadan Refinery, one of the key British refineries, is the goal, and with a stronger Axis Iran can potentially be seized if the Germans can send enough forces (not just Luftwaffe) to the region. Maybe the British can be thrown back into the sea at Basra? Killing/capturing Bill Slim (present at that battle) would be interesting for the later war effort.

I do agree with others that this is quite a bad idea for the Turks, and that if the Turks end up pressured into this, they'll switch sides as soon as they feel it's possible to avoid their certain destruction.
 
Turkey had claims in Syria, as noted by how they seized Antioch in the interwar period. Turkish nationalists claimed and still claim northern Syria thanks to its Turkmen minority. Turkey could potentially seize parts of the Caucasus, those Greek islands, and West Thrace (the rest of Greece can go to whatever Bulgaria and Italy want to do with it).

Yes, even today, the Turkish/Turkoman population of northern Syria is about 15%. In Northern Iraq, it is even more significant.

The old Empire is not coming back. But the Turks long resented that certain parts of northern Syria and Iraq with substantial Turkish kin were stripped away by the Entente after the Great War.
 
What if Turkey had declared war on allies in early 1941 in support of Germany in return for restoring the border to 1914 and to make it interesting let's say that Germany in 1930s invested in its infrastructure to make it easier to reinforce Turkey in case of war with britain

Lol not happening. Turkey was strict neutralist back in WW2. Other than that Germany can't give the 1914 borders as the Vichy control Syria.

If they did declare war on the WAllies rather than all of them then they would advance a small part in Iraq, aid the Vichy French in Syria and fight in Thrace vs Greece. They'd have limited success in Iraq only getting a few towns like Duhok, Talafar, Sinjar etc, near the border. Syria might have limited success with the Vichy until the full British Indian Army arrives. Thrace is the most successful as it could get as far as Kavala. It will be a source of conflict with Bulgaria for Greek Thrace though. By 1942-1943, the British Indian Army will possibly restore the border before the war. But Turkey might just give up and surrender as it is pointless to fight against a larger British Indian and Soviet Army

Best case scenario is a pro-Axis coup in Iraq diverting British attention over a larger part of the Middle East. But the results are 90% or so defeat as the Turkish Army of 1940s is in a sorry state and there is the same rate of chance that Turkey is forced to fight the USSR, which means the war ends as it starts. The British might be unsuccessful in moving through Anatolia in less than 5 years but a million Soviet soldiers won't take more than 3 years max to reach the Asiatic coast of Istanbul.
 
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