Turkey declares war on allies 1941

I don't think Turkey wanted the Ottoman Empire back, they were founded by different people who get rid of the old leadership.

I think they'd be quite happy settling for some parts of northern Iraq and Syria, and some consideration in the Transcaucasus. That would be just about all they could handle.

The rest wasn't coming back, no matter how generous the Germans were feeling, and policy makers in Ankara knew it.
 
Early-1941? British logistical studies projected that, given the infrastructure along the Anatolian-Palestinian coastline, the Germans could support four panzer and six infantry divisions through Turkey and into the Middle East and Egypt. British plans of the time were based on the expectation that the Germans would undertake an invasion of Turkey (and feared a quick Turkish collapse, although how realistic that is something of an unknown) rather then the Turks allying with the Germans, but that's an unimportant detail IATL. If the Germans are willing to forego Barbarossa and exploit the Turkish alliance to assault the Middle East, they now have a far better means of getting at the British Empire then across the wastes of the Egyptian desert.

Whether this would be enough politically for the British to quit the war is an open question. It also requires the Germans to see the opportunity in such an endeavor, but there's no evidence they did OTL.

Assuming the British staff estimate was correct, even that much of force surging into Syria and Iraq would have been difficult for the British to deal with, given what they had on the ground in 1941. The only thing which might slow the Germans down initially would be the lack of infrastructure for logistical support once the Germans left the Turkish rail net. It might well be that Wavell would get pushed back to the bottleneck of the Sinai on the left, and a bridgehead around Basra reinforced with troops rushed from the Raj on the right - and then left to fret over whether Arab uprisings make the entire British position (or what's left of it) in the Middle East untenable.

But as you say, "It also requires the Germans to see the opportunity in such an endeavor."
 
2 burning alive civilians in crowded cities [ which Harris specialized in] is one thing, while using high level bombing to hit dug in infantry is quite another
Oh, but hitting bridges and roads is another of the Halifax's strengths, and those dug in infantry are much more assailable when they have no reinforcements and they're limited to the ammo they have with them in their entrenchments.
 

Khanzeer

Banned
Oh, but hitting bridges and roads is another of the Halifax's strengths, and those dug in infantry are much more assailable when they have no reinforcements and they're limited to the ammo they have with them in their entrenchments.
Certainly possible though defeating an army solely by strategic bombing is not so easy as it sounds
 
Turkey loses Kurdistan, Thrace, a large chunk of eastern Anatolia, and perhaps even Istanbul at the end of the war.
chances are that Greece is given territory on the east of the dardenelles as a way to contain USSR. Constantinople is turned into an international city. i'd not be surprised if they put the UN there in some an even, which would have macrocultural importance.
 
I'll just leave this here...

WSnUmHm_DFqs6z2-fnzM0VwtMf_RlRm9BZlYOy1b8GE.png
 
As others said.
All things being equal, Turkey gets invaded and defeated, also offering the WAllies an easy way for Churchill's much beloved "soft underbelly" Balkans invasion approach.
There was no soft underbelly of course, but assuming minimal divergence, Turkey offers a point of entry for the Allies into Europe.
Postwar effects, depending on the specifics, may be huge.
hmm whilst Turkey did not have much offensive capacity, invading Anatolia is not very easy, so local help would be useful Definitely going to be a Kurdistan here.
 
I think they'd be quite happy settling for some parts of northern Iraq and Syria, and some consideration in the Transcaucasus. That would be just about all they could handle.

The rest wasn't coming back, no matter how generous the Germans were feeling, and policy makers in Ankara knew it.

The point is that the Turks don't want the rest back. The Germans actually offered them an occupation zone in Greece that would have effectively restored the 1914 Ottoman border in Thrace in OTL and they refused.

The UK would have to be on the verge of defeat and even then the Turks would probably just wish for Cyprus and Kurdistan.
 
Assuming Turkey joins in a similar fashion to Bulgaria, would they aid in the Invasion of Greece or just occupy after like Bulgaria? If that's the case what do they occupy in the Aegean Sea?

Once the Iraq coup happens German troops will be able to support them which will forestall the quick turn around we saw OTL, which means a new front in the middle east. With the Axis owning Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, Turkey and having pro-Axis in Iran and Afghanistan the Soviets are completely surrounded. East Africa has already fallen however Germany and Italy now have a way to race to the Suez from both sides if they so wish, attacking from Iraq into Transjordan (more than likely they'd just attack from Syria and break French neutrality but legally they can do so from Iraq).

How many troops would be put in the Caucasus by both Germans and Soviets? I imagine its quite easy to defend but with the Axis control over the Bosporus surely the Black Sea is completely cut off. Will the Soviet fleet attack Anatolia? Will Bulgaria, Romania and Turkey as well as whatever Germany and Italy can get there be enough to fight the Soviet Black Sea on the seas?
 

Ian_W

Banned
Assuming Turkey joins in a similar fashion to Bulgaria, would they aid in the Invasion of Greece or just occupy after like Bulgaria? If that's the case what do they occupy in the Aegean Sea?

One of the issues with Turkey as an ally is several of the things they want belong to Italy, another German ally.
 
One of the issues with Turkey as an ally is several of the things they want belong to Italy, another German ally.

Italy was okay with expanding their puppet in Albania so perhaps if they see Turkey as a puppet it can be in a similar fashion?

Or would Germany throw Italy under the bus (not like he ever cared about Italian ambitions)? Turkey did observe the anti-cominterm pact so perhaps they could expand north, or into Syria. Iraq might make some border adjustments in return for having Kuwait or expanding elsewhere at British expense. Italy was going to give Cyprus to a greek puppet so perhaps that goes to Turkey.
 

Ian_W

Banned
Italy was okay with expanding their puppet in Albania so perhaps if they see Turkey as a puppet it can be in a similar fashion?

Or would Germany throw Italy under the bus (not like he ever cared about Italian ambitions)? Turkey did observe the anti-cominterm pact so perhaps they could expand north, or into Syria. Iraq might make some border adjustments in return for having Kuwait or expanding elsewhere at British expense. Italy was going to give Cyprus to a greek puppet so perhaps that goes to Turkey.

Well, Turkey doesn't sign up for a war against Russia (and they havent won a war against Russia is ~400 years) to become an Italian puppet. There is there is the obvious problem that Kemal and people who believed in him thought about Turkey as a country for Turks, so acquiring a bunch of restive Arabs in Syria has limited appeal.

Similarly, if Germany throws Italy under a bus, then the risk is that Italy gets even more difficult to handle.

This is without dealing with the utterly terrible logistics of campaigning through the Caucuses, or going south-east for Basra - and assuming the UK can buy oil from the US, there's nothing important for the British until you get to India.
 
Well, Turkey doesn't sign up for a war against Russia (and they havent won a war against Russia is ~400 years) to become an Italian puppet. There is there is the obvious problem that Kemal and people who believed in him thought about Turkey as a country for Turks, so acquiring a bunch of restive Arabs in Syria has limited appeal.

Similarly, if Germany throws Italy under a bus, then the risk is that Italy gets even more difficult to handle.

This is without dealing with the utterly terrible logistics of campaigning through the Caucuses, or going south-east for Basra - and assuming the UK can buy oil from the US, there's nothing important for the British until you get to India.

So would Hitler refuse the Turkish? If the Turkish used the invasion of Greece to seize islands in the Aegean Sea, and maybe expand some into Thrace would Italy end up warring with them to get them out? If that puts them into the Allies do we see an Axis-Soviet invasion ala Poland or Scandinavia?
 

Ian_W

Banned
So would Hitler refuse the Turkish? If the Turkish used the invasion of Greece to seize islands in the Aegean Sea, and maybe expand some into Thrace would Italy end up warring with them to get them out? If that puts them into the Allies do we see an Axis-Soviet invasion ala Poland or Scandinavia?

Lets split this up.

Are you're talking about Turkey being an independent belligerent in WW2, and grabbing a couple of Greek islands as the Germans invade ? This is terribly high risk, as it could cause either the British or the Germans to go to war with the Turks.

An unexpected war between Italy and Turkey in early 1941 really throws a spanner into Barbarossa - I think Germany would try really, really hard to solve it through diplomacy, because invading Turkey in 1941 doesn't defeat Russia.

My understanding is one of the issues between Germany and Russia was around which sphere of influence Turkey fell in ... and them carving up Turkey in 1941 does nothing to defeat the British or the Americans.
 
Turkey joining Germany would have the same effect as Spain joining Germany: a vulnerable millstone demanding far more help from Germany than they could possibly return. Neither country had any significant military potential.
 
What if Turkey had declared war on allies in early 1941 in support of Germany in return for restoring the border to 1914 and to make it interesting let's say that Germany in 1930s invested in its infrastructure to make it easier to reinforce Turkey in case of war with britain

I don't really have an opinion to this question other than Being Neutral was the only winning move (a bit like Sweden, Spain, Portugal did and what Italy should have done) - but my response to these sorts of questions is always "What's in it for Turkey if they did?" and "Why didn't they OTL"

I generally find that once the forum has thrashed out those 2 questions we end up with a very good understanding of why things happened the way they did.

So just thinking about the Geography alone - you have the Axis to the West, the Russians to the East and the British Commonwealth to the South.

That alone for me is reason enough for Turkey to go full turtle until it is very obvious who is going to win and only then grab onto their coat tails and jump aboard.
 
Lets split this up.

Are you're talking about Turkey being an independent belligerent in WW2, and grabbing a couple of Greek islands as the Germans invade ? This is terribly high risk, as it could cause either the British or the Germans to go to war with the Turks.

An unexpected war between Italy and Turkey in early 1941 really throws a spanner into Barbarossa - I think Germany would try really, really hard to solve it through diplomacy, because invading Turkey in 1941 doesn't defeat Russia.

My understanding is one of the issues between Germany and Russia was around which sphere of influence Turkey fell in ... and them carving up Turkey in 1941 does nothing to defeat the British or the Americans.

Well I know that Hitler told Stalin he didn't care about the Balkans so I doubt he cared about turkey. Only insofar as he cared about Italy.

I don't mean to make two issues I'm just trying to see how Turkey could become a member of the Axis.

Territorial expansion would be one way.

What if the Soviets threatened them to stop selling chromium? Would they join the Allies or axis?

Turkey would be very useful for crete, Cyprus, and on to the Middle East and Egypt.

It was a real threat hence why Churchill advocated hard for them
 

Ian_W

Banned
I don't mean to make two issues I'm just trying to see how Turkey could become a member of the Axis.

Territorial expansion would be one way.

The key to Turkey is it's a thing because territorial contraction is often the right thing.

Mustafa Kemal, Father of his Country, was the best Turkish general in three hundred odd years. And he went 'Meh' to losing around 75% of the territory of the Ottoman Empire, because he believed a country full of Turks would work better than a patchwork quilt of ethnicities who may or may not be loyal.

For the Turks to join the Axis, you either need to show how they'd give up that to join the New Ottoman Empire (now under German stewardship).
 
And he went 'Meh' to losing around 75% of the territory of the Ottoman Empire, because he believed a country full of Turks would work better than a patchwork quilt of ethnicities who may or may not be loyal.

Well, Sevres and Lausanne didn't really give Kemal much of an opportunity to take on lots of non-Turks anyway (or at least, not once the Greek population transfers took place).

That said, the borders he ended up with still left him with a lot of Kurds to deal with.
 
If the Germans push through Turkey, even with Turkey as an ally, it means no Barbarossa, at least for a minimum of a year after OTL. It also means that the Germans are basically betting they will take the Middle East and this will force Britain out of the war. Just don't see the Germans doing this, even if the UK is out of the Middle East as long as they don't sign an armistice, some resources have to be directed against them - air forces, U-boats etc. The generals know that the USSR is getting stronger the longer they have before the Germans attack. Finally Hitler really, really wants the Lebensraum and thinks that the USSR will fold quickly, and that he can finish off the UK afterwards if need be. In the light of all that, the Turks would have to be crazy to join the Axis except at the last moment like Italy against France to see what they can get from the Soviet corpse.
 
Top