Tuchachewski's war

In OTL Tuchachewski (and not only he) was considering the next war as an attack of Poland and Baltic "buffer states" (financed and supplied by the evil imperialists) on the Soviet Union. The Weimar Republic was, IIRC, supposed to remain neutral. Hence Poland was considered the main future enemy.

What would happen if this scenario came true by the late 1920's - early 1930's (prior to the Nazi takeover so that Germany is still not a factor)?

The SU is still at the early stages of industrialization (1st 5 years Plan is not over, yet) and the Red Army is in a process of reorganization from semi-militia force of 530,000 (in 1924) into a bigger regular army. The 1st locally made light tanks are appearing only in 1929 - 31. Aviation is still based upon the old bi-plans (even production of the I-5 started only in 1931).

I have no ideas what Poland had at that time.
 
The Red Army evolved very rapidly, so you have to be very specific about the year.
Once the soviets decided that they wanted a conventional army, not a revolutionary one, they very rapidly developed capabilities that make an attack by Poland and the Baltic States alone very unlikely. The war scenario you refer sees them mostly as a staging area for an attack by a coalition of "imperialist States".
In order to build a timeline you will need to clarify who are those states, their degree of involvement, and the moment when they attack.
As a POD, I would suggest a faiiled communist coup in one of the Eastern European States, (Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, take your pick) with the USSR being accused of promoting the coup and a coalition of Eastern European countries (Much like the OTL crusade against communism) but ten years earlier and without Germany) launching an assault on the USSR with some support from Italy and limited support from France and Britain.
If it's only the Poles and Balts, the USSR wins easily. They would have numbers, and they would operate within their late 20s doctrine of successive operations in wide fronts, which was very similar to what the allies did in the final stages of WW1 in the west.
 
Regarding the Poish Army they followed late WW1 French doctrine pretty closely and used mostly French weapons. They had more cavalry for their size than most armies, and having combined independence experience with cooperation with the French their tactical skill and general combat effectiveness would be close to the best soviet units.
The Polish Air Force would probably gain local superiority, but should be regarded essencilly as an Army Support force and would not be able to impose strategically relevant results.
The Polish navy would be unable to oppose the heavy units of the Soviet Baltic Fleet.
You can get the Polish (and Baltic) naval strength from Navypedia.
 
The Red Army evolved very rapidly, so you have to be very specific about the year.

As I said, it is late 1920's - early 30's (before 1933). Massive rearmament had been made an official priority only in 1932 (the last year of the 1st 5 Years Plan). We have 2 options:

(a) to schedule the war to the late 1920's; which means no serious tank production (ditto for other weaponry). As I said, the 1st Soviet tank designs belong to the 1929 - 31.
(b) to schedule it to the end of 1932 (the last year of the 1st 5 Years Plan) - a different story: 4,000 tanks had been produced during this year. "From 1933 onwards, approximately 3000 tanks and other armoured vehicles were produced per year with similar rates of growth in the production of aircraft, artillery and other armaments" http://bcur.org/journals/index.php/Diffusion/article/viewFile/75/60.


Once the soviets decided that they wanted a conventional army, not a revolutionary one, they very rapidly developed capabilities that make an attack by Poland and the Baltic States alone very unlikely.

Well, IMO, this was unlikely immediately after the Soviet-Polish War but I was talking about the paranoia prevailing among the Soviet military of that time.

The war scenario you refer sees them mostly as a staging area for an attack by a coalition of "imperialist States".
In order to build a timeline you will need to clarify who are those states, their degree of involvement, and the moment when they attack.

IIRC, according to Tukhachevsky's "vision" the imperialist states (Britain, France and perhaps the US as well) would be doing encouragement, financing and arms supply for the buffer states (the Baltic states, Poland and perhaps Hungary and Romania, simply don't remember exact list). Don't remember if they were supposed to participate directly.
 
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