Tsuda Sanzo Succeeds - A Different Otsu Incident of 1891

Stumbled across an interesting possible point of departure the other day in the form of the Otsu incident. Short version is that whilst the future Nicholas II of Russia was on his Eastern Journey from 1890-1891 he visited Japan, during which whilst returning from a day trip to Lake Biwa one of his police escorts tried to assassinate him with his sabre. Tsuda managed to strike him once on the forehead giving him his scar but Prince George of Greece and Denmark who was accompanying Nicholas managed to parry the second stroke, he then attempted to flee but was caught by a pair of rickshaw drivers. Cue much apologising on the Japanese royal family and government's part since is was highly embarrassing for them and they knew that if Russia tried to use it as a reason for war they couldn't match them at the time. Thankfully things blew over. But what happens if Tsuda is more successful with his first stroke or Prince George is just a fraction too slow and the second one lands, mortally wounding Nicholas?

At the time he was Tsarevich since he was the eldest living son of then reigning Emperor Alexander III, so the position immediately falls to Grand Duke George Alexandrovich. The only problem with that is George Alexandrovich wouldn't live to see out the century thanks to contracting tuberculosis, some pages saying he caught it during an earlier leg of the Eastern Journey, other that it was merely bronchitis and that he caught tuberculosis later on back in Russia. That's something I need to run down. This vaults his brother Grand Duke Michael Alexandrovich up to Tsarevich until Nicholas had his son Alexei Nikolaevich, which he will obviously not be having in this timeline what with being dead and all. So depending on when George Alexandrovich contracted tuberculosis, for the moment lets assume it was before Nicholas is killed, if things stay roughly on schedule as our timeline that means Alexander III dies three years later making Tsarevich George Alexandrovich the new Emperor and Autocrat of All the Russias in 1894, only to die himself five years later in 1899, possibly better conditions being counterbalanced by increased stress. Tsarevich Michael Alexandrovich ascends to the imperial throne and his uncle Grand Duke Cyril becomes Tsarevich until such time as Michael has a son.

So what's going to be the likely outcome of a fairly quick turnover of Tsars in this period? Not having much luck turning up anything too substantive about George, or Michael to a lesser extent, so will have to go visit the library at some point. One good thing to at least come out of things for Michael would be that if and he meets Princess Beatrice of Saxe-Coburg and Gotha in this timeline as Tsar and head of the church he can simply say sod the rules and marry her. I have heard it argued that as an autocrat the tsars were the only people who could really affect Russia and push reforms, or by extension interfere and bugger things up. What's five years rule by a sick tsar going to do? Would a hands off approach actually improve things compared to Nicholas' reign? And the sixty-four thousand dollar question then becomes what is Michael going to be like as a ruler. All of which until I can do some research I can't really answer, but I thought I'd post and see what other members might know.
 
Well, for one, Russia would likely go to war with Japan over this, and probably win quick and be restrained by the Concert in what they get after (no way they'll get all of Hokkaido I think).
Which in turn will have all kind of effects on international politics and Great Power relationship, and, of course, on Japan. The Sino-Japanese war would be butterflied, and the Meiji policies significantly altered.
Internal politicies in Russia will also be changed, but not necessarily in pleasant ways if victory over Japan gives the ruling group some victory disease and/or unaccomplished victory feeling.
 
At the time he was Tsarevich since he was the eldest living son of then reigning Emperor Alexander III, so the position immediately falls to Grand Duke George Alexandrovich... This vaults his brother Grand Duke Michael Alexandrovich up to Tsarevich... Alexander III dies three years later making Tsarevich George Alexandrovich the new Emperor .... Tsarevich Michael Alexandrovich ascends to the imperial throne and his uncle Grand Duke Cyril becomes Tsarevich...

Technical point here: "Tsarevich" was a title held by all sons of a Tsar untli the 1700s. After that, it was not used. Instead, they were "Grand Dukes".

Also starting at that time, the heir apparent was called the "Tsesarevich". This title was sometimes granted to heirs presumptive, but not automatically.
 
Well, for one, Russia would likely go to war with Japan over this...

Except that Japan would be grovelling apologies. OTL there was one public suicide intended as atonement; if Nicholas was actually killed there would be many, probably including the Prince who was attending him and the commander of the police escort.
 
Well, for one, Russia would likely go to war with Japan over this, and probably win quick and be restrained by the Concert in what they get after (no way they'll get all of Hokkaido I think).
Hokkaido? Er yes, as Rich Rostrom posted the Japanese are going to be issuing absolutely grovelling apologies over the whole affair. What would the Russians be aiming to gain out of the war? As I understood things Russia was still the most influential power in Korea and Manchuria until after the Russo-Japanese War, so aside from a war for a wars sake I'm not quite sure what their aims would be. I could maybe see them pressuring the Japanese to regain Kuril Islands that they traded to them for Sakhalin sixteen years back with the Treaty of St. Petersburg 1875, and quite possibly succeeding, but I don't think it would come to actual fighting.

One knock-on effect that I thought it might have would be for the Russians to garrison the Far East a bit more strongly on the theory that you obviously just can't trust the Japanese, but thinking about it if the Japanese roll over and play dead then it could actually make them even more overconfident since look at how nonthreatening and weak-willed they are. Still having trouble trying to dig up much in the way of solid information for Grand Duke Michael Alexandrovich. Seems to of been a decent military leader, recognised that things were going off the rails in the run-up to the revolution, and his actions when offered the throne in 1917 suggest that he'd be more amenable to reform than his elder brother Nicholas II but that could be more down to the special circumstances of the time than anything else. Anyone able to give us a decent idea of what he might of been like?
 
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