Paul Tsongas died in 1997 OTL and began cancer treatments again in May of 1996. He understandably isn't running for reelection. Perhaps he even resigns in late 1995 or early 1996.
Tsongas's term is defined by
- Aggressive Deficit Reduction via both the raising of taxes and cutting of spending
- Reduction in the Capital Gains Tax
- The passage of NAFTA
- Health Reform that's more budget-minded than Clinton's OTL effort. Perhaps Paid Sick Leave and/or Medicaid expansion.
For his VP, I think he'd pick another centrist or a midwesterner. An ethnic from Massachusetts isn't going to fare well in the south and is going to need to appeal to midwesterners at least. I think Bayh, a young centrist from a state seen as up for grabs, would work well. Otherwise it will be another midwestern or southern centrist I think (Gephardt, Gore, or Nunn maybe?). Although if he wants to go the historic route, I suppose there's Virginia Governor Douglas Wilder who was also pretty centrist/conservative.
Gephardt was anti-NAFTA and a big critic of SK and Japan. Tsongas wanted the US to adopt some elements of Japan and South Korea's pro-business policies, so perhaps he could get Gephardt and then Gephardt becomes pro-trade and a protectionist of the Japan and Korean sort.
Whoever is Tsongas's VP, they're going to be on the right flank of the party. This makes me think there'll be some liberal opposition in 1996. The assumption that a sitting VP is heir-apparent hadn't quite sunk in yet I think.
Perot in 1992 is going to fare better in the south without Clinton. But he also won't have the advantage of Clinton's sleaze driving some voters away. Voters who don't like the idea of voting for a northeastern ethnic might break for Perot here too. But, Tsongas will also take a harder line on the debt and deficit to Perot's harm. I wonder if Perot will do better in 1996 if there isn't an incumbent.
Here's an interesting tidbit: Romney crossed party lines to endorse Tsongas in 1992. I wonder how the 1994 Massachusetts Senate Race would go with a Republican who is more in line with the President from Massachusetts than a Democrat.