Tsarist Russia post-WW1 vs. Japan: who gets China?

whitecrow

Banned
Let's say Russian Empire lives to fight another day after a WW1 that goes better for it. In the post-war years, would Russia try to extends its influence in China?

How would Japan respond?

And how would Chinese people see the two powers? Would they favor one over the other?
 

Tsao

Banned
Let's say Russian Empire lives to fight another day after a WW1 that goes better for it. In the post-war years, would Russia try to extends its influence in China?

How would Japan respond?

And how would Chinese people see the two powers? Would they favor one over the other?

This scenario strongly depends on how stable Russia (and for that matter, China) is. Was there an early Entente victory ITTL? And I strongly doubt that the Chinese would cooperate with any foreign power, as they had just expended such an effort to throw them out.
 
Let's say Russian Empire lives to fight another day after a WW1 that goes better for it. In the post-war years, would Russia try to extends its influence in China?

How would Japan respond?

And how would Chinese people see the two powers? Would they favor one over the other?

Well, during the Russo-Japanese War, Japan was slightly more popular amongst the locals in Manchuria. The Japanese Army actually bothered to pay some locals for food and labor. The Russian Army was more apt to simply extract food and other resources by force. They made this worse by forcefully removing local villagers from strategic areas.

By the time we are talking about, though, that was over 15 years ago. Does the May 4 Movement still occur in this timeline? That was really the birth of modern Chinese nationalism, IMHO. After that, the average Chinese person won't like the idea of taking orders from any foreign group.

If this TL *does* have events in China occur mostly the same way at OTL, China is in a warlord period anyway. You can probably just have each foreign country support their own "clique". So, the Japanese can support the Anhui group in the North, the Russians can support some group in the West, maybe even the British support groups near Hong Kong and the Yangtze Basin. All of these groups will get the same deal: rifles, military advisers, and loans in exchange for business concessions.

And I strongly doubt that the Chinese would cooperate with any foreign power, as they had just expended such an effort to throw them out.

What effort? The Boxer Rebellion? That was a generation ago...
 
Tsarist Russia and Japan were actually working on creating an "entente" in the middle of WWI. Russia didn't want to worry about its rear end anymore so it was working on an agreement with Japan for recognition of spheres of influence in China.

Obviously, the Russian Revolution got in the way.

With a surviving tsar, Japan and Russia would likely have had a cordial relationship, and I don't think either would want to push each other's buttons. However, the butterflies are massive with no USSR, so I have no idea if a WWII situation would arise in East Asia in this TL.
 
In the Russian Civil War period, and even for some time after the main White forces had been defeated, Japan played a very sinister game in the far east, with a general strategy of creating a pan-Mongol empire under a Mongol emperor who would in reality have been a Japanese puppet. They could have tried that even without a civil war, and, come to think of it, did something similar in Manchuria in the 30s.

This would not be good for Russia or China, and I wouldn't be surprised if there was a second Russo-Japanese War, with Chinese factions fighting on both sides.
 

whitecrow

Banned
This scenario strongly depends on how stable Russia (and for that matter, China) is.
I think China would go into warlordism regardless of WW1’s outcome. I could be wrong, but it seems that once their self-appointed “Emperor” died, everything fell apart and the warlords came into being without much “outside” impacts.

As for Russia, if Tsar retains power he may have to introduce some reforms to keep the opposition against him from gaining popularity. He still probably won’t be the most popular monarch in the world though.

Was there an early Entente victory ITTL?
I guess so. That is one way for Tsarist Russia to survive and butterfly away the Russian Civil War.

Does the May 4 Movement still occur in this timeline? That was really the birth of modern Chinese nationalism, IMHO. After that, the average Chinese person won't like the idea of taking orders from any foreign group.
Hmm… good question. The movement was a response to Chinese government selling out to Japan, correct? I forget, what year did this occur in again?

I guess the main question here is with a surviving Russian Empire does Chinese Republican government still sell out to Japan or would Russia object to such a deal?

Tsarist Russia and Japan were actually working on creating an "entente" in the middle of WWI. Russia didn't want to worry about its rear end anymore so it was working on an agreement with Japan for recognition of spheres of influence in China.

Obviously, the Russian Revolution got in the way.

With a surviving tsar, Japan and Russia would likely have had a cordial relationship, and I don't think either would want to push each other's buttons. However, the butterflies are massive with no USSR, so I have no idea if a WWII situation would arise in East Asia in this TL.
Interesting. Didn’t know that.

In the Russian Civil War period, and even for some time after the main White forces had been defeated, Japan played a very sinister game in the far east, with a general strategy of creating a pan-Mongol empire under a Mongol emperor who would in reality have been a Japanese puppet. They could have tried that even without a civil war, and, come to think of it, did something similar in Manchuria in the 30s.
But wasn't Mongolia a Russian puppet before WW1? If Russia is not weakened by a civil war I doubt they would allow Japan to encroach into Mongolia. At least not unchallenged.

This would not be good for Russia or China, and I wouldn't be surprised if there was a second Russo-Japanese War, with Chinese factions fighting on both sides.
That would be my guess too. Though perhaps it wouldn’t be an outright war, but more of a “Great Game”/“Cold War” between Russia and Japan to dominate the east. (I wonder whom would Britain support in such a conflict? Play both sides off of each other most likely.)

Than again, what about Super_Cool’s assertion that Russia and Japan would divide China into spheres of influence and call it a day? How likely is that?
 
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But wasn't Mongolia a Russian puppet before WW1? If Russia is not weakened by a civil war I doubt they would allow Japan to encroach into Mongolia. At least not unchallenged.

It was more complicated than that.

Mongolia had been able to break free from China during the Chinese revolution (late 1911-1912). Russia (and, to a lesser extent, Japan) had provided arms to the rebels. Russia was friendly to the Bogd Khan's ensuing theocratic (lamaist) government, and had sent military trainers, but it didn't completely control Mongolia and had very few men there. Meanwhile, Japan didn't control Mongolia either, but had an underground network of supporters, mostly nobles. China hadn't given up either and had the closest forces. The three powers were all set to manoever against each other.

And, of course, like in other Great Game-type situations, while the outside powers tried to play Mongol factions in their own interest, the Mongols would try to manipulate the outsiders.
 
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