This scenario strongly depends on how stable Russia (and for that matter, China) is.
I think China would go into warlordism regardless of WW1’s outcome. I could be wrong, but it seems that once their self-appointed “Emperor” died, everything fell apart and the warlords came into being without much “outside” impacts.
As for Russia, if Tsar retains power he may have to introduce some reforms to keep the opposition against him from gaining popularity. He still probably won’t be the most popular monarch in the world though.
Was there an early Entente victory ITTL?
I guess so. That is one way for Tsarist Russia to survive and butterfly away the Russian Civil War.
Does the May 4 Movement still occur in this timeline? That was really the birth of modern Chinese nationalism, IMHO. After that, the average Chinese person won't like the idea of taking orders from any foreign group.
Hmm… good question. The movement was a response to Chinese government selling out to Japan, correct? I forget, what year did this occur in again?
I guess the main question here is with a surviving Russian Empire does Chinese Republican government still sell out to Japan or would Russia object to such a deal?
Tsarist Russia and Japan were actually working on creating an "entente" in the middle of WWI. Russia didn't want to worry about its rear end anymore so it was working on an agreement with Japan for recognition of spheres of influence in China.
Obviously, the Russian Revolution got in the way.
With a surviving tsar, Japan and Russia would likely have had a cordial relationship, and I don't think either would want to push each other's buttons. However, the butterflies are massive with no USSR, so I have no idea if a WWII situation would arise in East Asia in this TL.
Interesting. Didn’t know that.
In the Russian Civil War period, and even for some time after the main White forces had been defeated, Japan played a very sinister game in the far east, with a general strategy of creating a pan-Mongol empire under a Mongol emperor who would in reality have been a Japanese puppet. They could have tried that even without a civil war, and, come to think of it, did something similar in Manchuria in the 30s.
But wasn't Mongolia a Russian puppet before WW1? If Russia is not weakened by a civil war I doubt they would allow Japan to encroach into Mongolia. At least not unchallenged.
This would not be good for Russia or China, and I wouldn't be surprised if there was a second Russo-Japanese War, with Chinese factions fighting on both sides.
That would be my guess too. Though perhaps it wouldn’t be an outright war, but more of a “Great Game”/“Cold War” between Russia and Japan to dominate the east. (I wonder whom would Britain support in such a conflict? Play both sides off of each other most likely.)
Than again, what about Super_Cool’s assertion that Russia and Japan would divide China into spheres of influence and call it a day? How likely is that?