Tsarist russia ethnically cleanses Turkestan before 1916 ?

[Melvin Loh]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basmachi_Revolt

Is there any way that Tsarist Russia could've decided, before the Basmachi revolt of 1916, to embark on a police of ethnic cleansing against all Turkestanis/Muslims in Central Asia ? Is there any way that, perhaps with much earlier & greater Muslim armed resistance against Russian settlers & govt forces, Central Asia could've seen pogroms against Turkestanis as occurred against Jews in the Pale of Settlement ? Of course, Russian excesses during the 1916 Kazakh/Kyrgyz rising- esp in response to atrocities committed by rebelling Muslims against Russian settlers- were quite extreme, but is there any way that the Tsar pre-1900 could've gone a step further & decide to ethnically cleanse Turkic ppl ithruout Central Asia ?

 

[RGB]

Er.

It was really rather difficult to achieve (there aren't enough settlers in Russia to take the territory over, and there's lots and lots of different Turcic nationalities there) and if "ethnic cleansing" was what the Basmachi revolt was all about then the "Russians" failed miserably, didn't they?

 

[Hnau]

That would be a lot of people. Many millions. It would be an operation requiring similar demands as the Holocaust, maybe more so.

 

[sahaidak]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basmachi_Revolt

Is there any way that Tsarist Russia could've decided, before the Basmachi revolt of 1916, to embark on a police of ethnic cleansing against all Turkestanis/Muslims in Central Asia ? Is there any way that, perhaps with much earlier & greater Muslim armed resistance against Russian settlers & govt forces, Central Asia could've seen pogroms against Turkestanis as occurred against Jews in the Pale of Settlement ? Of course, Russian excesses during the 1916 Kazakh/Kyrgyz rising- esp in response to atrocities committed by rebelling Muslims against Russian settlers- were quite extreme, but is there any way that the Tsar pre-1900 could've gone a step further & decide to ethnically cleanse Turkic ppl ithruout Central Asia ?

Unlikely. Russians weren't too willing to settle in the arid steppes and deserts of the Central Asia, and the Muslims were very important part of working force (especially on cotton fields - Turkestan was main supplier of raw materials for the Russian textile industry). To kill your workers without having necessary substitute would be most stupid action on the part of the Russian government, rivaling in stupidity, as well as in criminality, Hitler's Holocaust.
When and where the subdued peoples were obstacles for Russian policies (e.g., Nogais in the North Caucasian steppes at the end of the 18th century, Circassians in 1850-1860-ies), they were destroyed or expelled en masse. But irrational mass murder for the sake of itself wasn't characteristic for the Russian Empire. If you were useful for the state - you could live in peace, retaining your property and culture.

 

[Damu]

That would be a lot of people. Many millions. It would be an operation requiring similar demands as the Holocaust, maybe more so.

Ethnic cleansing does not necessarily require genocide. Although it almost always leads to atrocities, that does not mean that millions of Muslims would have been sent to concetration camps. For example, hundreds of thousands of Crimean Tatars and Circassian muslims were either forced out or were under pressure to leave the territories conquered by Russia in the middle of the 19th century, most resettled in the Balkans and later in Anatolia. A lot of them were killed before they left or died en route to the Ottoman Empire but most of them did survive the ethnic cleansing. So imo, since the Russians had done something similar just 50 years before 1916 i see no reason why they couldn't do it again.

 

[Damu]

But irrational mass murder for the sake of itself wasn't characteristic for the Russian Empire. If you were useful for the state - you could live in peace, retaining your property and culture.

The Russians maybe could have found a reason to expel a part of the Muslim population. We need to find a POD that would provoke this type of Russian behavior, like much more succesful revolts in the late 19th century that would make the Russians see the Muslims as a threat to the stability and internal security of the Empire; or the Muslim elites in Central Asia strengthening ties with the Ottoman Empire, thus making tham be seen as traitors, collaborating with Russia's primary rival in the Balkans and the Caucasus.
If this ethnic cleansing occurs, could this mean war with the Ottoman Empire?

 

[sahaidak]

The Russians maybe could have found a reason to expel a part of the Muslim population. We need to find a POD that would provoke this type of Russian behavior, like much more succesful revolts in the late 19th century that would make the Russians see the Muslims as a threat to the stability and internal security of the Empire; or the Muslim elites in Central Asia strengthening ties with the Ottoman Empire, thus making tham be seen as traitors, collaborating with Russia's primary rival in the Balkans and the Caucasus.

Well, if the Muslim elites would be too rebellious, then they could be expelled, or at least decimated through executions, expulsions, exiling to the Siberia and so on. But to expel rank-and-file Muslims, peaceful peasants or sheep-herders, the Russians would need much stronger reasons.
The fact was, the Central Russian cities, including Moscow, needed cotton and (to lesser extent) wool. First of them wasn't cultivated by the Orthodox Slavs at all, second was produced outside Turkestan (especially in Ukraine and the Southern Russia), but in insufficient quantity and quality. So, without the Central Asian natives, Russia would be compelled to struggle with major raw materials supply crisis, somewhat similar to the oil shock of 1973. The government could decide to expel the Muslims, economic costs notwithstanding, but only with very important political reasons to do so. One such reason could be the Muslims' rebellion during the Russo-Turkish War. In OTL, there were no such wars between 1878 and 1914 (incidentally, OTL ethnic cleansing took place namely during Russo-Turkish War of 1914-1918, being caused (to some extent) by the rebellion of 1916). If there were war against Turkey, and corresponding Central Asian uprising, say, in 1897 (when the Ottomans in OTL had defeated Orthodox Greece), then expulsion of the Central Asian Muslims, at least partial, could be possible.

If this ethnic cleansing occurs, could this mean war with the Ottoman Empire?

Such cleansing, in my opinion, wouldn't occur without war with the Ottomans. So, the war would predate and even cause the expulsion. Opposite order - war meaning rebellion meaning expulsion.

 

[Tyr]

That would be a lot of people. Many millions. It would be an operation requiring similar demands as the Holocaust, maybe more so.

And without the intended targets all being nicely settled in cities you can hop in your van to travel to.
It'd be a serious pain to pull it off, outright shooting every Turkestani you see would be the only way and of course the resistance to this would be huge...

 

[Joseph Solis in Australia]

It would be an disaster for Russia, without the Turkics, Russia would have a difficulty to get raw materials such as cotton in addition to the upcoming October Revolution.

 

[King Thomas]

It would cause far more trouble then it was worth.