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Not an exact scenario, but say something in general like this happens.

The first POD is that Nicholas gets lucky, very lucky, with appointing and promoting competent people in the military and launches various military reforms before 1904. They struggle with Japan in 1904, but pull out a win in 1905. Britain is still concerned about Russia and doesn't sign an alliance with them.

In 1914 WWI breaks out again for the same reasons. Despite Russia being perceived as stronger than OTL, Germany uses the Schleiffen Plan anyways. France concentrates on the defense of Belgium rather than attack into Germany as a second PoD, resulting in a lucky France bottling the Germans in Belgium. Austria does as well against Russia and Serbia as OTL. Russia this time manages to avoid disastor and inflicts a humiliating loss on Germany in the opening days, resulting in Germany retreating nearly as far Berlin and diverting huge forces from East to West. France/Belgium launch big counter attacks.

Internationally, the perception by the start of October is that Germany and Austria are overmatched. Romania, with a third PoD, has its internal politics changed to make it moderately more pro France/Russia/Serbia or anti Germany/Austria. Sensing weakness they declare war in early October and launch an attack. It is somewhat weak, but still ties down men and supplies, and further pushes the narrative to Germany-AH outmatched. France/Belgium begin to push the Germans back.

Italy jumps in the war in mid October, believing the war to be almost over. Italy launches an attack that ties down all CP reserves. Russia launches a major offensive in late October at Austria-Hungary, getting a break through. By early November Germany is forced out of Belgium (back to their border), and Russia breaks through the Carpathians. AH believe their position is now untenable and surrender. Germany does the same several days later.

Russia gets German and Austrian Poland, France gets AL, Italy gets South Tirole, Serbia gets Bosnia, and Romania gets Transylvania. CP pay reparations equal to 30% of their new GDPs. They must allow partial occupation and have partial demilitarization until they pay their debts.

The Ottoman Empire begins the Armenian Genocide, causing international outrage. They also get into a dimplomatic spat with Greece in early 1915 that results in war. This proves to be a major miscalculation as Russia declares war to protect their fellow Orthodox Christians, along with the Armenians. The Ottoman Empire is blindsided by it, in one of histories many bizzare miscalculations.

The British are fearful for the results, but the Armenian Genocide makes it hard to support them. Russia offers Arabia/Syria/Iraq/Levant/SE Turkey areas to Britain/France/Italy. Russia and Greece crush the Ottoman's main armies in the spring. With the coast looking clear Italy and France grab some Mediterranean islands and coast. Britain reluctantly does the same. Russia seizes the Straits and Constantinople in summer.

Britain decides its best option is to just take Arabia's cost and Mesopotamia at low costs. Russia annexes Northern Turkey, the straits, and Constantinople. Greece takes their absurd OTL post WWI style gains. Italy and France divide the rest.


So, Russia has acquired the straits, defeated their rivals, established themselves as the military power of Eurasia, and accomplished most of their major objectives. They've done it without major political, economic, or social reforms; just military and huge amounts of luck. Some questions:

1: What is Tsarist Russia's new major national objectives?

2: Can Russia realistically screw this up?

3: How likely are rebellions?

4: How would the rest of the world deal with a Super Power Tsarist Russia?
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