Yay, thread about Bulgaria, time to get out of lurking mode
Thats definitely not an ASB-scenario. In 1995-6 Bulgaria was in a huge financal and political turmoil, that led to the complete collapse of the goverment and the economy in 1997. Also the people were thinking highly of the ex-Tsar - he steamrolled the elections in 2001 and that was after Bulgaria managed to recover.
My really quick timeline, so we can have something to work with.
March of 1996 - Simeon II announces in a popular Bulgarian political program that he is willing to return to his country, take his place as Tsar and lead it out of the mess(ATL).
Mid-1996 - the economy is marching straight towards the abyss and the goverment cannot stop it(OTL)(doesnt want to do it, says Simeon II)
Winter of 1996 - the prime minister Videnov steps down and Bulgaria enters into a political crisis(OTL). Already ammased huge public support the ex-monarch calls for referendum to determin the future of the country(ATL).
December-January 1996-1997 - massive strikes and a attempt to take over the parliament building by the mob. The police and the army say that they wont allow bloodshed. The bulgarian currency - the lev goes straight to the toilet thanks to huge inflation(OTL).
Next month(we are going all ATL) - Forced by public pressure the president calls for a referendum - Monarchy or Republic. The elections are called for April. Simeon II uses its time to make amazing campaign, that plays to the long time lost economic and political stability(even the old guard in Bulgaria saw Boris III in a good light) from the time of his dad - Boris III and sound economic plans that are backed by the right opposition.
Election day - The people vote M and Simeon II declears himself Tsar of all the Bulgars all over the world in a constitutional monarchy with big powers granted to the Tsar, followed by a mission to the world bank to secure currency board for the Bulgarian lev that stabilizes the country(the same way that happened in OTL)